u/eyal282

I don't think many people know this but Chaos Drops unlike Starr Drops are capable of involving lottery level RNG. I will calculate what is literally the luckiest day if you could control RNG.

Assumptions:

1. You can beat the pro pass before the season ends, in 30d
2. Credits are worthless, and the fact the luckiest day would be rarer if you converted some Chaos Drops to give 2 Ultra Legendary Brawlers, it is a bad trade as you want this ordeal to get your account as close as possible to being fully maxed out.
3. You are a hard stuck Legendary player.
4. You spent every reward in the trophy road & records & have an empty inbox, even the recent eSports
5. You get to begin to set up at the start of the current season, several days ago.
6. You are completely F2P, both before & after.
7. 10 Tail Rewards total, at a no questions asked basis

Set up:

1. You save every single Loot Box everywhere possible: BP, Pro Pass, Mega Quests. You constantly reset Mega Quests to prevent their completion.
2. You beat the Pro Pass before the month ends.
3. You watch the esports for +3 Chaos Drops and +4 Starr Drops.
4. You manipulate your daily streak to land on a Starr Drop. This is possible because you can stall 2 days to collect it.

Supercell's Setup:

1. Supercell cancels every event (even early access) and instead gives 30k coins & Power Points via rush events.

The last day of the Dragon & Faries season has begun. You select 4 Chaos Drops, 3 Starr Drops, 2 Mega Boxes as your Luckiest Day (as you mock its name) for your six daily wins (this is the attached image, while you mock its displayed value at average luck). The BP gives you 18 Starr Drops, 1 Legendary Starr Drop, 6 Chaos Drops, 2 Mega Boxes. The tail rewards give you 3 Chaos Drops, 6 Sushi Rolls, 1 Mecha Box. The Pro Pass gives 31 Starr Drops, 8 Mythic Drops, 8 Legendary Drops, 1 Hypercharge Drop (1k coins, irrelevant to the calculations). The Mega Quests give 8 Starr Drops, 6 Chaos Drops, 2 Mega Boxes. The setup phase gives 4 Starr Drops and 3 Chaos Drops

Starr Drops Total: 3 + 18 + 31 + 8 = 60

Each Starr Drops turns into a random Hypercharge, at a probability of 0.326% per Starr Drop. 0.326% ^ 60 = 6.20949103032e-150

Chaos Drops total: 4 + 6 + 3 + 6 + 3 = 22

Each Chaos Drop gets an 8-split that turns into a Buffie, at a probability of 5.63198666033e-9 per Chaos Drop. 5.63198666033e-9 ^ 22 = 3.27005897127e-182

Mega Boxes total: 2 + 2 + 2 = 6

Each Mega Box gives 10k Power Points at a probability of 1e-30 per Mega Box. 1e-30 ^ 6 = 1e-180

Sushi Rolls total: 7 = 7

Each Sushi Roll becomes 8 Star Powers (you'll have too many Hypercharges very very soon anyways) at a probability of 1.83825774674e-23 per Sushi Roll. 1.83825774674e-23 ^ 6 = 3.8586770234e-137

The 9 Legendary Drops I'll do it quickly and it's total probability of 8.12247605339e-8

The 8 Mythic Drops give 8 gadgets, I'll do it quickly and it's total probability of 3.92330284588e-7

The lone Mecha Box has 10 pulls. Each pull becomes 100 gems. Total probability is 1e-30

Total probability:

6.20949103032e-150 * 3.27005897127e-182 * 1e-180 * 3.8586770234e-137 * 8.12247605339e-8 * 3.92330284588e-7 * 1e-30 = 4e-691

This video applies but e691 is incomphehensibly greater than e67: https://youtu.be/0DSclqnnC2s

Total Rewards in Fallback: 129k coins + 236k Power Points + 1k gems

I won't pretend I've booted the game, but one thing is clear: A huge chunk of the player base on Reddit agrees that Cookie Run Oven Smash is directly contesting Brawl Stars as the next Brawl Stars.

This is incredibly beneficial to us because Brawl Stars loses its monopoly, which means progression will be buffed, and changes will be made that benefit the player base instead of Supercell's wallets. But Supercell needs to stop slacking off immediately: Fix bugs, fix your support by getting rid of the horrendous bot & agents (I heard Supercell's support isn't even part of Supercell, rather an external support company), fix lack of constant communication (Reddit) and for this post specifically: Add support for playing the game on PC.

Edit: In case it wasn't clear: Brawl Stars no longer being a monopoly doesn't mean the new game will kill the best game ever was, and ever will be (Brawl Stars)