u/bookie_siren

For any comrade who cares about Cuba, I have some thoughts I want to share. The island is under an unprecedented economic and political attack right now as we all know and is being threatened with a military invasion. I know this is frightening and sad to think about however I wanted to share some thoughts on things to keep note of and positive things the island has that may be able to make it withstand everything the US is throwing at it for now. Doomerism doesn't help so instead I want to focus on hopeful realism instead that shows Cuba is not as vulnerable as it may seem.

CUBA & ENERGY INDEPENDENCE: The US is threatened and it shows

As some other comrades have already posted, Cuba successfully refined their own crude oil from their waters for the first time using their own domestically created technology. This was first posted by TeleSur. I believe them successfully refining their own oil has made the US even more desperate to attack the island because the leverage the US holds on the island is diminishing as Cuba gains more energy independence. The fact this was domestic technology not from traditional allies such as China or Russia is something that the Western media is not reporting because it shatters the idea that Cuba needs a patron to survive. Cuba can create her own technology and did and therefore can be self reliant.

China is helping the island transition to solar and renewables and the island believes it will be fuel independent by 2035 and by 100% on renewables by 2050. As recently as last Friday, the Cuban National Electrical Union was getting ready to install 5000 2kW photovaltic installations donated by China that will create energy and be independent of the grid.

Misrepresentation of information: You'll notice a lot of people, liberals and demsocs especially say that the island "doesn't have any oil or resources". That's not true as many of us know but just in case you don't know. The island currently produces 40,000 barrels of oil a day. They need about 100K-110K per day for the entire nation. In addition Cuba has a high amount of cobalt and nickel reserves which is needed for lithium batteries to be made for electric cars for example. I think it's actually good that people think Cuba doesn't have anything because the island can build up its defences while people think they are weak.

WASHINGTON: Desperate for a win

The US is becoming increasingly desperate over Cuba. Marco Rubio was posted in front of a map of Cuba with a high ranking US military officer who runs SOUTHCOM, the Beasts military wing in the Western hemisphere. The new sanctions announced on 1 May alongside a new article on NBC News that quotes sources saying that Washington doesn't understand why the island has not fallen by now after everything they have done to overthrow the government. Washington clearly thought it would happen by now but it hasn't.

It doesn't mean it won't but as per NBC News, Trump is impatient. Axios, one of the mouthpieces of the Washington war machine, claims an invasion is imminent but again we will have to wait and see. A lot of this is information warfare and psychological warfare to create and stoke fear and concern amongst the Cuban people and comrades. Bear this in mind when you are reading about the island potentially being attacked, this is happening because Washington is desperate and nothing has worked so far to destroy the Revolution.

The strategic defeat in Iran means Washington is even more desperate for a win. This doesn't mean that Cuba will be that easy to take down though. There is a reason it has withstood for so long.

WHAT CUBA HAS IN ITS FAVOUR

Yes on the face of it, Cuba looks vulnerable to an invasion and attack. It does look grim and it is easy to say the island is toast. However when we keep looking, it does have elements to its favour to withstand a US attack such as:

As another Cuban comrade on this sub mentioned, Cuba can decide to take Guantanamo Bay in the case of a military invasion. The government has 2 intelligence agencies, the G2 and the military intelligence agency that is dedicated to watching Guantanamo Bay. This is a lever they could pull against the US. No one knows exactly what the government could do but as the comrade who kindly mentioned it, it is a lever they could pull if faced with an existential threat.

One of the main reasons the island has been able to defend the Revolution is the iron will of their intelligence agency, the G2. They have thwarted many assassination attempts for Fidel and colour revolution attempts. If the US is to successfully invade the island, they will need a Judas or traitor to sell out the Revolution. They don't have "their man in Havana" yet this is why they are becoming so desperate and escalating the rhetoric. Venezuela was compromised with people inside who sold out Maduro and his wife. If the G2 is able to keep everyone in check, this in itself is a weapon against Washington and the CIA because without collaborators you run the risk of creating insurgencies and birthing a new Fidel, Che or Camilo eventually.

We all know Cuba could not beat the US militarily one to one and yes Cuba doesn't control an important waterway like the Strait of Hormuz. That said, guerrilla warfare for Cuba would have to mean staying as united as possible and making this a long guerrilla war against the US. An invasion of the island would be politically expensive if the island fights back especially if the US cannot subdue the island in 24 hours or less. By making an invasion politically expensive for the MAGA war criminals, this is another element that plays in Cuba's favour. The US is on a deadline for wars. Cuba is not. Drop Site News recently posted that Iran believes it has time on its side and is in no rush to negotiate, further believing the mid terms will weaken Trump (they will) and this will play in their favour.

Every military analyst believes that the island cannot withstand a full scale invasion but the Mossad said Iran would fall in days. Months later the US and Israel are stuck in a defeat laden trap that they cannot get out of. Just because everyone says the island is weak and unable to fight back doesn't mean this is the truth especially considering how the government has recently been united at the May Day parade.

If the Cuban people decide to support their government and if the military doesn't fold, this would be a very politically expensive guerrilla war for the US to fight. Some comrades on here have said the US would bomb the island. I cannot see the US bombing multiple civilian buildings because this would create a humanitarian crisis where people could flee in Babylon like numbers to Florida. I can see the US bombing military installations or something connected to Fidel such as where he is buried but I can't see them bombing civilian buildings in Havana or Santiago.

The US are banking on finding a sell out in the military to stage a coup against MDC. Whomever this person is, they either don't exist, haven't made a decision or do not believe it would work. Cuba can see the US imperial decline and failures in West Asia and may have decided to roll the dice because fighting for your life is better than surrendering.

COUNTERREVOLUTIONARY? IGNORE

Anything gusano related. It's hard to tell what is connected to the Miami gusano community but a few publications come to mind such as Havana Times, Ciber Cuba and the Miami Herald. The Miami Herald posted a terrible article recently that didn't meet journalistic standards saying most Cuban Americans want the island to be invaded yet failed to mention clearly they only surveyed less than 900 people in Florida. Avoid gusanos online too and don't engage with them. It's a waste of time and that energy can be used to supporting our comrades on the island in better ways.

Mainstream media that claims to left leaning like the Guardian that claims to post "both sides" articles about the island but actually is trying to demean the Revolution. The Guardian is absolutely ridiculous. Of course it supports imperialism but its Cuba coverage has been particularly bad. Avoid and ignore. Another publication that does this is El Pais from Spain.

SOURCES

In my quest to learn more about the island but also seek information from a left perspective, I've been reading or keeping up to date with the following. You can just pull up their names in Google. This isn't an exhaustive list but just a few sources I think are good.

-Belly of the Beast Cuba

-Cuba Analysis

-Breakthrough News

-Manolo de Los Santos

-Dr Helen Yaffe

-Alan McLeod

-Let Cuba Breathe

-Cubans4Cuba

-Cuba Solidarity Movement UK

-Cuba No Es Miami (YouTube)

It is no surprise that the biggest test for the Revolution is happening in Fidel's 100th birthday year. I thought it was telling that Raúl was at the May Day celebrations in Havana alongside MDC and with his grandson the gusanos keep salivating over. To me, I read his appearance as saying the Revolution will defend itself completely.

What Iran has proved is each country attacked by the Empire has to fight back. Don't surrender or you'll never be free.

Patria o Muerte Venceremos!

The Empire frustration...