Random Hero Unlock & Random Team-Up Box Valuation
Edit: I can't tell if the Reddit images are appearing so I uploaded to Imgur: Heroes Graph and Team-Ups Graph
I was trying to figure out when it makes sense to stop getting random hero boxes with splinters and just buy them with Gs. I didn't find a great source explaining when other than https://mhtahiti.com/mh-random/ but that site didn't show the Team-Up Boxes. So I tried to make a couple graphs breaking it down.
On both graphs I assume each box's contents are equally probable among the box; i.e. Blade is equally an option as Spider-Man. I also made two lines for how people want to buy the boxes. The red line assumes you are seeking a new Hero/TU exclusively and dupes are essentially waste. The green line assumes you also value the dupes as an Ultimate Upgrade. The blue line is the cost of a random box and the purple line is the average cost (70.1754) of an Ultimate Upgrade token when purchased in the 19x store bundle (most efficient acquisition method). Because duplicate team-up tokens can be converted to ultimate upgrades at the crafter I also included it on that graph.
For Heroes, there are 58 that can come from the box. Excluded are the Fantastic Four and Silver Surfer. For Team-ups there are (according to a post from MonEll in Discord) 38 that can come from that box. Included are only the ones that are viewable from the Team-Up Heroes roster even if unowned.
With this information I conclude to buy random boxes if:
- You have 32 or less randomizable heroes owned and only seek new heroes
- You have 39 or less randomizable heroes owned and value ultimate tokens
- You have 21 or less randomizable team-ups owned and only seek new team-ups
- You have 25 or less randomizable team-ups owned and value ultimate tokens