u/ape123man

For anyone tracking the Wet werkelijk rendement box 3 (bill 36748) — the Dutch unrealized capital gains tax: the Senate (Eerste Kamer) is in a critical phase right now.

What's happening this month

• May 12 — Procedural meeting of the Senate Finance Committee. The committee decides whether to wait for the novelle (amendment bill) that State Secretary Eerenberg has announced, or to proceed to substantive debate on the original bill. First real decision since the government's written response (NnavV) of April 24.
• May 19 — Expert hearing (deskundigenbijeenkomst). Two 90-minute blocks with external experts. First independent expert input to the Senate since the oral consultation with Eerenberg on March 17.

Quick recap of the politics so far

• Feb 12: Passed Tweede Kamer 93-57 ("with great reluctance")
• Feb 25: Minister Heinen wants to go "back to the drawing board" — no loss carryforward, liquidity problems
• Mar 17: Eerenberg presents three-pillar response in oral consultation, announces novelle for Prinsjesdag
• Apr 7: Senate Finance Committee report (1 week past deadline)
• Apr 24: Cabinet sends NnavV — answers to ~300 questions on loss offset, real estate, start-ups, EU law, administrative impact
• Commitment: pre-summer 2026 letter on aanwas variants and costs

Why it matters

• January 1, 2028 implementation date is increasingly uncertain. The legacy CoolGen system at the Belastingdienst must be retired by Dec 31, 2027.
• Per rijksoverheid.nl, the Tweede Kamer had to pass the bill by March 15, 2026 to give the Belastingdienst, banks and insurers enough lead time (~21 months, "één jaar en negen maanden") to adapt ICT systems for a 1-1-2028 start. That deadline was technically met (Feb 12), but the Senate hasn't started substantive debate.
• A novelle could be submitted at Prinsjesdag (September 2026), but Eerenberg has made no firm commitment.
• Senators have requested parallel treatment of the novelle alongside the original bill.
• Delay to 2029 is becoming more likely.

Sources

• Rijksoverheid — Box 3 reform plans: https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/inkomstenbelasting/plannen-werkelijk-rendement-box-3
• Eerste Kamer dossier 36748: https://www.eerstekamer.nl/wetsvoorstel/36748_wet_werkelijk_rendement_box
• Nota naar aanleiding van verslag (kst-36748-6): https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/kst-36748-6.html
• Full timeline with all votes, letters, and committee meetings: https://box3berekenen.nl/en/political/36748

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Do you think the Senate will move forward without the novelle, or will they wait for Prinsjesdag regardless? And does anyone still expect Jan 1, 2028 to be feasible?