u/ambryio

Big day. Iran, oil, rail data, and a cold front. Here’s everything in one place.

**🕊️ IRAN / HORMUZ — most important story for freight costs**

Trump called off a planned military strike on Iran Monday night after Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE asked him to hold off. He says Iran is “being reasonable” and he’ll give them until early next week to make a deal.

Hormuz update: some crude tankers have resumed movement through the strait — including a Vietnamese-bound Iraqi oil shipment. Flows remain far below normal and could deteriorate quickly. It’s not fully closed, but it’s not open either.

Goldman Sachs: every month the Strait of Hormuz stays closed adds **$10 to the year-end oil price.** That’s the math behind why every week of negotiations matters for your fuel surcharges.

If a deal happens early next week, WTI could drop $10–15 fast. Don’t lock in long-term FSC commitments today.

**🛢 OIL**

WTI closed yesterday at **$108.21** (+3.1%). Brent at **$110.69** (+2.6%).

Both contracts are up more than 54% since the Iran war began on Feb. 28.

IEA: global oil inventories were drawn down by 250 million barrels in March and April — a record pace. Saudi Aramco CEO warned Monday: if Hormuz stays blocked past mid-June, oil market normalization extends into 2027.

**⛽ DIESEL**

• EIA wk May 18: **$5.596/gal** — down 4.3¢ from $5.639 (surprise drop despite high WTI)

• Rocky Mountain anomaly: **+21.5¢** to $4.587 — likely storm-related supply disruption

• East Coast: $5.420 (-4.5¢) · YoY: +$2.060/gal (+58%)

• FSC baseline this week: **$5.596**

• Next EIA: May 27. Direction depends heavily on Hormuz this week.

**🚂 RAIL — AAR releasing TODAY at noon ET**

AAR publishes weekly traffic every Wednesday at noon. Today covers the week ending May 16 — first data after CVSA Roadcheck (May 12–14) and the start of the Kansas/Nebraska EF3+ storm outbreak.

Last reading (wk May 9): 513,755 carloads + intermodal, +3.7% YoY.

Watch for intermodal dips from the storm week. Will update this post after noon.

**📈 SPOT RATES** (DAT/FTR week of May 18 — latest)

• 🚚 Dry Van: **$2.56/mi** (+3.8¢ WoW, +44% YoY)

• ❄️ Reefer: **$2.83/mi** (+10¢ WoW, +39% YoY)

• 🚧 Flatbed: **$3.14/mi** (+8¢ WoW) — 19th consecutive week up, near all-time record

• 📊 Total: **$3.43/mi** (+39% YoY)

Reefer note: East Coast heatwave ends Wednesday. Below-normal temps spread Southern Plains + Midwest Thursday–Friday. Small window for slightly better reefer rates end of week.

**⛈ WEATHER**

• 🌩️ **Texas tonight**: Cold front moving south through N/Central Texas. Isolated hail 1.5”, damaging winds, localized flash flooding. I-35 TX, I-10 TX. Much quieter tomorrow.

• ⚡ **Ohio Valley PM**: Scattered severe storms along cold front. Wind + hail primary. I-65 KY-TN, I-40 TN-AR.

• 🌧️ **Texas Hill Country Wednesday**: Heavy rain threat. I-10 TX, I-35 TX Austin area.

• 🚫 **Iowa/Kansas/Missouri**: Post-storm road damage assessment ongoing from Monday’s EF3+ outbreak and Tuesday’s Moderate Risk flooding. Check 511ia.gov and 511ks.org before dispatch.

• 🌡️ **East Coast heatwave**: Ends Wednesday. Relief Thursday–Friday. Reefer demand easing.

**🌎 BORDER**

Post-storm normalizing. Iowa/Kansas road assessment ongoing — check conditions before cross-border dispatch.

USD/CAD: **1.3769** (May 19 close, TradingEconomics · Wise high 1.37715)

CBP live: bwt.cbp.gov

Will update with AAR rail numbers after noon ET.

All of this is tracked daily at **pulse.ambry.io** — free, no account needed.

Sources: CNBC May 19, Barchart May 19, FXDailyReport May 20, EIA.gov May 19, Goldman Sachs via CNBC, IEA May 2026, NWS Fort Worth May 20, NWS WPC May 19, DAT/FTR via FleetOwner, TradingEconomics, Wise.com, AAR via Railpace

⏰ Next update: noon ET today — AAR rail data (week of May 16)

Posted the weekly snapshot this morning. Here's what changed since then.

**⛽ DIESEL — EIA released at 9:05 AM CDT**

US national average: **$5.596/gal** for the week of May 18.

That's **down 4.3 cents** from $5.639 last week.

Surprise drop. WTI averaged $103–108 last week, so most people expected a surge. Instead it fell.

Regional breakdown from the EIA release:

• East Coast: $5.420 (-4.5¢)

• Rocky Mountain: $4.587 (+21.5¢) — big anomaly, likely storm-related supply disruption

• Year over year: +$2.060/gal (+58%)

If you were holding off on updating FSC rates waiting for this number — now you have it. $5.596 is the new baseline. Next EIA release: May 27.

**What else changed today**

• **WPC upgraded to Moderate Risk** excessive rainfall for NE Kansas through southern Iowa. Yesterday's HIGH RISK outbreak (SPC Level 4/5 — EF3+ confirmed in KS/NE) saturated the soils. New storms today producing 2–3+ in/hr on top of soaked ground. I-80 IA, I-35 KS-IA, I-29 IA-MO still at flash flood risk. Check 511ia.gov before dispatch.

• **SPC: scattered severe storms this afternoon** along the cold front — Great Lakes to Ohio Valley and SE Kansas. Wind damage and hail primary risk. Isolated tornadoes near Great Lakes. I-90 OH-IL, I-80 IN-IL, I-70 KS-MO corridor. Avoid dispatch after 2 PM CT through these areas.

• **East Coast heatwave** continues through Wednesday. Reefer demand elevated.

**Numbers unchanged from this morning:**

• Van: $2.56/mi · Reefer: $2.83/mi · Flatbed: $3.14/mi (DAT/FTR wk May 18)

• WTI: ~$104/bbl · USD/CAD: 1.3742

All of this is live at **pulse.ambry.io** — updated with the EIA number now.

Sources: EIA.gov May 19, NWS WPC, NWS SPC Day 1

👉Will update with EIA diesel number after 10:30 ET.

👉Next AAR release: **tomorrow May 20** (Wednesday) — week of May 16 data

Posting this every week. Three things happening simultaneously today that every logistics professional needs to know.

**⛽ DIESEL — EIA releases TODAY at 10:30 ET**

Last reading: $5.639/gal (EIA week of May 12).

WTI averaged $104–108 last week. Today's EIA release will show a significant surge.

If you haven't updated your FSC rates yet — do it before 10:30. If your customers see the new number before you call, you've already lost the negotiation.

I'll update this post with the actual number after release.

**🛢 OIL**

• WTI ~$104/bbl this morning, pressing against the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern. Bullish breakout toward $108–110 possible if buyers push through.

• Iran rejected the latest US peace proposal. White House called it insufficient. UAE nuclear facility was hit by drone strikes over the weekend.

• Hormuz mostly closed. IEA: inventories drawing at record rate.

• Situation remains fluid — check live before quoting fuel-sensitive loads.

**🌊 WEATHER — active right now**

• **WPC MODERATE Risk excessive rainfall** for NE Kansas through far southern Iowa. Yesterday's HIGH RISK outbreak (SPC Level 4/5 — EF3+ tornadoes confirmed) saturated the soils. New rain today at 2–3+ inches/hour = flash flooding on I-80 IA, I-35 KS-IA, I-29 IA-MO. Check 511ia.gov and 511ks.org before any dispatch through these corridors.

• **SPC: scattered severe storms** along the cold front — Great Lakes to Ohio Valley and SE Kansas this afternoon/evening. Wind damage and hail primary risk. Isolated tornadoes near Great Lakes. I-90 OH-IL, I-80 IN-IL, I-70 KS-MO corridor.

• **East Coast heatwave** continues through Wednesday. 20°F above average. Reefer demand elevated.

• Storm outbreak continues. Wednesday: cold front reaches Texas Hill Country and Ohio Valley with another heavy rain risk.

**📈 SPOT RATES** (DAT/FTR week of May 18 — released today)

• 🚚 Dry Van: **$2.56/mi** (+3.8¢ WoW, +44% YoY)

• ❄️ Reefer: **$2.83/mi** (+10¢ WoW, +39% YoY) ← availability CRITICALLY LOW

• 🚧 Flatbed: **$3.14/mi** (+8¢ WoW) — 19th consecutive week up, near all-time record

• 📊 Total market: **$3.43/mi** (+39% YoY) — multiyear highs all modes

Reefer: East heatwave demand Mon–Wed on top of storm disruption + South Texas surging on some lanes. If you have uncovered reefer loads this week, cover them now.

**🌎 BORDER**

Post-CVSA normalizing. Iowa/KS flash flood risk on I-29/I-80/I-35 — check road conditions before cross-border. USD/CAD ~1.3742 today (Wise May 18 high 1.37625).

CBP live: bwt.cbp.gov

**🚂 RAIL** (AAR week of May 9, latest available)

513,755 carloads & intermodal · +3.7% YoY · Grain +16.7% · Chemicals +6% · Intermodal +4%

Sources: FXDailyReport, TradingEconomics, EIA.gov/FRED, NWS WPC (4:28 PM EDT May 18), NWS SPC Day 1, SevereWeatherOutlook, DAT/FTR via FleetOwner, Wise.com, AAR via FreightWaves, CBP

**📦 Weekly market snapshot — May 18, 2026

Posting this every week before dispatch. All numbers verified with public sources.

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**🛢 OIL / ⛽ FUEL**
• WTI $107.35/bbl today +3.5% · Brent $111+ · Hormuz still fully closed
• ⏰ **Diesel EIA drops TODAY at 10:30 ET** — last number was $5.639/gal (wk May 12). WTI +11% last week = major surge expected. Update FSC rates BEFORE 10:30 or negotiate against the new number.
• California $7.36/gal · Gulf Coast cheapest $5.18/gal

---

**📈 SPOT RATES** (DAT/FTR week of May 18, released today)
• 🚚 Dry Van: $2.56/mi (+3.8¢ WoW, +44% YoY)
• ❄️ Reefer: $2.83/mi (+10¢ WoW, +39% YoY) ← CRITICALLY LOW
• 🚧 Flatbed: $3.14/mi (+8¢ WoW) — 19th consecutive week up, near all-time record
• 📊 Total: $3.43/mi (+39% YoY) — multiyear highs ALL modes

---

**⛈ WEATHER — active right now**
• 🌪️ Iowa: 26 tornado warnings ACTIVE. I-80, I-35, I-29, I-90 all threatened. **Do not dispatch into Iowa today.**
• ⚡ Central Plains: EF2/EF3+ outbreak today PM — central KS + SE Nebraska into Iowa. I-70 KS, I-80 NE, I-35 KS-IA after 2 PM.
• 🌡️ East Coast: heatwave Mon-Fri → reefer demand spike
• ⚠️ Southern Plains: cold front Wed-Thu — another severe round

---

**❄️ REEFER — book now**
Critically LOW. East heatwave + Iowa/Plains storms + South Texas +59%. Tightest reefer market of 2026.

---

**🌎 BORDER**
Post-CVSA normalizing. ⚠️ I-29 Iowa/Missouri disrupted — reroute via I-94/I-90. Add 30-60min buffer.
CBP live: bwt.cbp.gov

---

**🚂 RAIL** (AAR wk May 9)
513,755 units · +3.7% YoY · Grain +16.7% · Next release May 20

---

Will update diesel after 10:30 ET when EIA drops.
Tracking all of this daily

Sources: OilPrice.com, EIA.gov, DAT/FTR via FleetOwner, NWS SPC, TornadoPath.com, AAR, CBP

Posting this every week before dispatch. All numbers verified with public sources.

---

**🛢 OIL / ⛽ FUEL**
• WTI $107.35/bbl today +3.5% · Brent $111+ · Hormuz still fully closed
• ⏰ **Diesel EIA drops TODAY at 10:30 ET** — last number was $5.639/gal (wk May 12). WTI +11% last week = major surge expected. Update FSC rates BEFORE 10:30 or negotiate against the new number.
• California $7.36/gal · Gulf Coast cheapest $5.18/gal

---

**📈 SPOT RATES** (DAT/FTR week of May 18, released today)
• 🚚 Dry Van: $2.56/mi (+3.8¢ WoW, +44% YoY)
• ❄️ Reefer: $2.83/mi (+10¢ WoW, +39% YoY) ← CRITICALLY LOW
• 🚧 Flatbed: $3.14/mi (+8¢ WoW) — 19th consecutive week up, near all-time record
• 📊 Total: $3.43/mi (+39% YoY) — multiyear highs ALL modes

---

**⛈ WEATHER — active right now**
• 🌪️ Iowa: 26 tornado warnings ACTIVE. I-80, I-35, I-29, I-90 all threatened. **Do not dispatch into Iowa today.**
• ⚡ Central Plains: EF2/EF3+ outbreak today PM — central KS + SE Nebraska into Iowa. I-70 KS, I-80 NE, I-35 KS-IA after 2 PM.
• 🌡️ East Coast: heatwave Mon-Fri → reefer demand spike
• ⚠️ Southern Plains: cold front Wed-Thu — another severe round

---

**❄️ REEFER — book now**
Critically LOW. East heatwave + Iowa/Plains storms + South Texas +59%. Tightest reefer market of 2026.

---

**🌎 BORDER**
Post-CVSA normalizing. ⚠️ I-29 Iowa/Missouri disrupted — reroute via I-94/I-90. Add 30-60min buffer.
CBP live: bwt.cbp.gov

---

**🚂 RAIL** (AAR wk May 9)
513,755 units · +3.7% YoY · Grain +16.7% · Next release May 20

---

Will update diesel after 10:30 ET when EIA drops.

Sources: OilPrice.com, EIA.gov, DAT/FTR via FleetOwner, NWS SPC, TornadoPath.com, AAR, CBP

Posting this every week for anyone who wants a quick read before Monday. All data verified with sources.

OIL / FUEL
• WTI closed Friday at $106/bbl — +11% for the week. Hormuz still fully closed.
• Diesel national avg: $5.639/gal (EIA wk May 12). Monday’s EIA release will show the surge from WTI +11%. Lock in FSC rates today.
• California: $7.36/gal. Gulf Coast cheapest at $5.18/gal.

SPOT RATES (DAT wk May 11, latest available)
• Dry Van: $2.37/mi (+1¢ WoW)
• Reefer: $2.73/mi (+1¢ WoW)
• Flatbed: $3.06/mi (+3¢ WoW) — 18th consecutive week up
• Total broker-posted: $3.39/mi (+39% YoY, ATH)

WEATHER — active right now
• Iowa: Severe Thunderstorm Watch active, 39 counties. Baseball hail, 60mph winds, I-35 directly hit. Add 3-6h ETA buffer.
• Monday: Next round of severe storms Iowa/Central Plains (strong cold front + lee cyclone KS)
• East Coast: Early season heatwave Mon-Fri → reefer demand spike incoming
• CO/WY Rockies: Late season snow possible next week

REEFER — book now
Availability is LOW. CVSA just ended (trucks returning) but Iowa storms + East heatwave = no relief. Tightest reefer window of the year.

BORDER
Post-CVSA normalizing. 30-60min residual buffer still advised at major crossings. CBP live: bwt.cbp.gov

RAIL (AAR wk May 9)
513,755 carloads & intermodal units, +3.7% YoY. Grain +16.7%, Chemicals +6%, Intermodal +4%.

If this is useful I’ll keep posting weekly. We track all this daily.
Sources: EIA, DAT via FleetOwner/Overdrive, NWS SPC, AAR via FreightWaves, CBP.

Owner/operators:

What are the 2–3 things you check every single morning before accepting loads or planning your week?
For me it’s usually:
lane movement

fuel prices

weather/disruptions

border delays

broker reputation

overall freight volume

Feels like most drivers and dispatchers spend half the morning jumping between different sources just trying to understand what kind of market day it’s going to be.
Curious what experienced O/O’s rely on daily.