When Could “Pending Litigation” End?
There are four possible scenarios — ranging from June all the way to 2027.
🔴 Scenario 1 — Ends in June (Worst Case)
The Supreme Court’s Haiti/Syria ruling is so broad that it wipes out all Venezuela claims too — procedural AND equal protection. The government then asks a lower court to formally dismiss the Venezuela case based on the new ruling. Litigation ends almost immediately. EADs and TPS protections cut off overnight.
🟠 Scenario 2 — Ends in October (Bad Case)
The June ruling kills procedural claims but leaves equal protection alive. The government has about 90 days from the Ninth Circuit’s denial of rehearing to petition the Supreme Court for review.  If the Court grants cert on Venezuela in that window, the stay order specified that in the event certiorari is granted, the stay shall terminate upon the sending down of the judgment of the Court.  That termination of the stay could coincide exactly with the October 2 deadline — leaving people in a legal vacuum.
🟡 Scenario 3 — Survives Past October (Middle Case)
The Supreme Court denies cert on Venezuela. The October 2025 stay order specified that if the petition for certiorari is denied, the stay shall terminate automatically  — which would actually restore the Ninth Circuit’s pro-Venezuelan ruling. The case then goes back to lower courts with racial animus claims still alive. Litigation continues well into 2027.
🟢 Scenario 4 — Litigation Keeps Going (Best Case)
The June ruling is narrow — only blocking some procedural claims — and Venezuela’s racial animus argument survives strongly. The Venezuela lawsuit also contends the termination was driven by racial animus, violating the Fifth Amendment’s guarantee of equal protection.  Lower courts continue fighting on that ground. Protections stay alive past October 2026 through new emergency orders.
The Simple Summary
|When it ends |Why |What happens to your EAD |
|-----------------|---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|
|**June 2026** |Sweeping SCOTUS ruling kills all claims|Gone immediately 🔴 |
|**October 2026** |SCOTUS grants cert, stay terminates |Gone at same time as EAD expires 🟠 |
|**After October**|SCOTUS denies cert, fight continues |Ninth Circuit win restored 🟢 |
|**2027+** |Racial animus case drags on |New court orders could extend protection 🟡|
The cruel reality is that only Scenario 3 and 4 give Venezuelan TPS holders a real lifeline — and both depend on the government either losing or the Court staying out of it. Right now, that’s far from guaranteed.