Deep Phucking Value - Conviction in Analysis Compared to Space X
I will continue to acquire shares of ELTP until a buyout or uplist. I'm at 7.2 million shares. Not because I'm desperate or am impatient and looking for a quick moonshot to change my life, but because I've done the research on this stock for 9 years now and went from hating it and mocking it to being a huge fan once the CEO and rest of the C suite turned the company around.
I was fortunate enough to get in early on Space X and XAi. While my returns, as a percentage will be similar to my percent return on ELTP - that will ONLY be because of the timing of the investments. POST IPO - I truly, and honestly think that ELTP will outperform my Space X position as a percentage return.
Here's why I think that. SpaceX will find it's value very quickly due to the market exposure. The second it goes public, the whole world will be watching it. It's extremely hard to find value in that scenario. The only way to make money there is on the bet that long term Space X will become a $10 to $20 Trillion company.
On the flip side, ELTP has NO exposure. It's daily volume is like .02% of total float? If even a small group starts buying up shares preacquisition or preuplist, this stock would double to triple. That's not a guess - that's based off empirical data points. Go look at the value last year at a measly 5 million shares per day volume. 100k people buying $15 worth of stock a day would move this that much.
That's why I see acquiring shares of this whenever I can to be such a good long term investment. I don't like to buy "maybes" and "hopes of an approval" etc. I love most of my investments to be based on a multiple of cashflows combined with a realistic upside of future cash flow growth. ELTP is at a 5000% revenue increase since 2020 (from 3 million to 140m TTM and expected 150m July 3rd), with lots of room to grow over the next year or two if for some reason they don't get acquired and uplist instead (Eliquis generic alone, even after an 80% price deterioration for going generic would be $300 to $500 million in revenue).
EDIT for Clarification:
Sorry I was working at the same time, and I should have added some context. This post is to highlight why I think it's important to have conviction in your valuation even when sometimes the market isn't aligning with your analysis (highlighted by my pic of the continued recent buys), compared to how a stock will be valued at peak exposure. Those two things being the case, and as crazy as it seems at first glance, I think ELTP has higher percentage gain upside (obviously not market value) than Space X.
Also, for clarification for those that don't know about ELTP - it's a generic pharmaceutical company that has made some amazing progress. New FDA approved facility, excellent market penetration, healthy pipeline, exceptional growth, and unicorn level $2.2 million revenue per employee. One site shows it at undervalued by 84% right now.
