Is copy trading on Polymarket actually an edge or just luck? I looked into it properly
This question comes up constantly so figured I'd share what I actually found after digging into it.
Short answer: it depends entirely on who you're copying.
Here's the reality check first. Only about 12.7% of Polymarket users are profitable at all. So before you even think about copy trading, most people you could be copying are already losing money. The leaderboard makes it look like everyone is printing but the actual distribution is heavily skewed toward a tiny number of wallets.
Copying bots is basically pointless for regular users. These things execute within milliseconds of a headline dropping. By the time you see the trade and act on it the price has already moved. You're just buying someone else's entry at a worse price.
Conviction traders are a completely different story though. Wallets placing large directional bets on political or macro outcomes where a few cents of slippage don't kill your edge. A trader who has won 51 out of 57 predictions is worth following even if you enter slightly higher than they did.
Wallet selection is where most people mess up. Copying whoever topped the leaderboard last week without checking if the track record is deep enough to be real skill and not just a hot streak. Polycool helped me to filter for the right wallets and honestly it's made this whole process way easier. Credit to them for building something that actually saves time here.
