The $32 floor rate is worth $14 after costs and inflation. Let's talk about what's actually happening. I've broken down earnings, deadlines, changes to the federal budget. Here's what I've found that's actually going on!
I was hoping to have this for everyone on the 5th or 6th, but my perfectionism and being really busy has held me back. I apologise my brothers.
Both Uber and DoorDash reported Q1 2026 earnings. Cutting through the investor noise, here's what's actually relevant to us.
THE $32 FLOOR RATE — WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS
July 1 is 55 days away. The headline is $32/hr for car drivers and $31.30 for bikes. Sounds like a win. But there's a catch that's getting buried in every article about it.
"Active time" means order accepted → drop-off only. Waiting between orders, positioning yourself in a hotspot, sitting at the restaurant while they make the food — none of that counts. And the top-up isn't weekly. It's a 21-day rolling calculation. Have a slow fortnight? You're waiting up to 3 weeks for a correction. Not great when rent is due.
The real effective hourly rate once you factor in all that dead time is a very different number to $32.
THE DATA
- Uber delivery revenue up 34% — fastest growing part of their business
- Australia was specifically named on the earnings call as a key growth market
- DoorDash total orders up 32% YoY, but missed profit expectations for next quarter
- Uber bought back $3 billion of its own stock this quarter\
THE FEDERAL BUDGET — WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS FOR US
The 2026–27 Federal Budget dropped three things relevant to us as gig workers — one actually useful, one that sounds useful but is a trap, and one that confirms what we already know. The useful one: fuel excise was temporarily halved from 52.6c to 20.6c per litre from April 1 — roughly $6–8 cheaper per tank right now, real money. The trap: the new $1,000 instant tax deduction sounds like a win, but if you're claiming vehicle costs properly at the ATO rate of $0.88/km, you're almost certainly claiming far more than $1,000 already — switching to the flat deduction would cost you thousands. Keep your logbook, keep your real deductions. And the confirming-what-we-already-know part: CPI is forecast to hit 5% this year. Your $32 floor rate, already worth around $19 in real terms once dead time is factored in, is being eroded by inflation before it even kicks in.
THE MARKET — IT'S JUST TWO OF THEM NOW
Menulog had 24% of the Australian market. They're gone as of November 2025. Before them, Deliveroo left in 2022. Foodora in 2018. Every time a platform exits, our options shrink and theirs don't.
The brutal irony — Menulog was the one that actually tried to do right by drivers. They ran trials hiring couriers as employees in 2021. It cost them too much to compete and they couldn't survive it. Meanwhile Uber and DoorDash played hardball, waited it out, and are now negotiating the minimum standards on their own terms. Doing the right thing killed them competitively.
The demand is growing. The profit is growing. The platforms know exactly what they're doing.
10 MILLION DRIVERS. THINK ABOUT THAT.
- Uber now has 10 million+ active earners globally
- The growth in demand appears to be in step with growth in new drivers
More drivers chasing the same orders means less active delivery time per driver — which means less floor rate top-up liability for Uber. They don't need to cut your pay. They just need to keep onboarding.
AND HERE'S THE EXISTENTIAL THREAT (You're welcome 🫠)
- Coco Robotics launched autonomous delivery with Uber Eats in San Jose last month
- Uber has active deals with 20+ AV companies, targeting Waymo in 15 cities by end of 2026
This isn't a 10-year-away problem. San Jose was last month. The replacement program isn't hypothetical anymore.
THE STATUS ON DECLINING BAD ORDERS
The "decline everything under $X" mentality is right — but it only works if enough of us actually do it. The algo notices acceptance rate patterns, and it notices when an order sits. Collective declining is legitimate pressure.
The harder problem is undocumented workers taking anything that moves. It's not their fault — they're in a desperate situation and the platforms know it and rely on it. The answer isn't to be angry at those drivers. The answer is to make collective action tight enough and visible enough that the platform can't route around us. That means knowing your zone, knowing your peak windows, and being disciplined when it counts.
THINGS WORTH TRYING BEYOND JUST DECLINING
- Go offline for 10–14 days when quest values are garbage. Re-engagement offers follow almost every time. You're teaching the algo you're not captive.
- Rotate your start zones occasionally. Predictable positioning gets you profiled and offered worse.
- Multi-app and accept the best offer that comes in. Both platforms hate this, which is exactly why it works.
- Track your real hourly rate including dead time, not just active delivery rate. Share what you're actually making. Real numbers are the most powerful thing we can put in front of each other.
A community that shares data, coordinates on declines during peak windows, and actually talks to each other is harder to exploit than one that just grinds in silence.
What's your current decline threshold and is it actually moving the needle? If this sub keeps growing with like-minded people who've experienced the same things — big shit can happen.
(I hope some of you found this helpful to get an