u/SkoivanSchiem

It's the middle of the afternoon where I am, I'm burned out at work and just wanted to talk basketball folks, so pardon me for this rambling.

Not saying we have no right to go delulu over this series. Of course we do. The only things we can do as fans is believe and support.

But I thought this perspective was pretty eye-opening:

The Lakers are currently around +900 to +950 to beat OKC. Historically, there have been roughly 80 NBA playoff series where the underdog was priced around +900 or longer.

Only 3 of those underdogs won, it hasn't happened since 2012, and none happened without any caveats.

1994 Nuggets over SuperSonics (+1400, won 3-2)
- Caveat: Format. In a best-of-seven, the favorite has more chances to assert their edge and bad-luck variance gets washed out. In a best-of-five, two close losses or one cold shooting night and you're staring down an elimination game.
2007 Warriors over Mavericks (+1200, won 4-2)
- Caveat: Matchup. Warriors swept Dallas in the regular season. In hindsight, this was a much worse matchup for Dallas than the regular-season records suggested, which the oddsmakers failed to account for due to the Mavs having a 67-win season. Though tbh, this is the cleanest case of an overwhelming underdog winning against a heavy favorite in NBA history, odds-wise.
2012 76ers over Bulls (+900, won 4-2)
- Caveat: Injuries. This is the biggest asterisk win on this list. Derrick Rose tore his ACL in Game 1 and Joakim Noah missed a few of the middle games as well after spraining his ankle.

So historically, teams in this odds range are something like 3-for-80. Not exactly impossible, but brutally rare. And even the successful examples had major context: short-series format, matchup weirdness, or injuries.

What does that mean for us? OKC swept us in the regular season by an average of almost 30 points and we're more injured than they are. So, yeah...

Realistically speaking? Getting swept feels inevitable. We could steal one if LeBron is able to control a game, the role players shoot well, and the Thunder play sloppy/cold. We can maybe force a Game 6 if Jalen Williams misses time and Reaves looks fully back? Lakers win the series only if Luka returns unrushed and functional by Game 3 or 4 and OKC doesn't play optimally.

So yeah, this is a mountain. But if they somehow pull it off it would be one of the biggest series upsets in modern NBA history.

Bullet Heaven is now a tag that exists on Steam.

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