u/Serious_Truck283

Does Hongqiao deserve more credit for the upgrade story, not just the output story?

What caught my attention isn’t just tonnage. Hongqiao said its world’s first NEUI600+ super electrolytic cell production line began smooth operation in Yunnan using its proprietary 600kA Plus cells, and its 250,000-tonne high-precision aluminum alloy slab project there was also officially put into operation.

At the same time, this doesn’t look like a company stretching itself recklessly. 2025 capex was RMB10.66B, mainly for the Yunnan green aluminum innovation industrial park, lightweight material base, and new energy projects. Cash and cash equivalents rose 14.3% to RMB51.19B, operating cash inflow was about RMB39.00B, the proposed final dividend was HK165 cents per share, and the company repurchased 306.3M shares for about HK$5.58B during the year.

So yeah, I’m not fully sure this is just a plain old smelter story anymore. Feels like there’s a real mix now of process upgrades, greener production, and shareholder returns, but the stock still doesn’t get talked about like that very often.

Do you think the market eventually rerates that, or is Hongqiao always going to trade like a simple cyclical?

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u/Serious_Truck283 — 16 hours ago

Is Hongqiao getting viewed too narrowly as just another aluminum cyclical?

Everyone talks about copper when grid spending comes up, but the IEA also notes that aluminum is used for overhead lines, and annual metal use for power transmission lines, distribution grids, and transformers grows by around 50% in 2022–2030 in its Net Zero scenario.

That’s why China Hongqiao (1378.HK) feels a bit more interesting to me lately. In 2025, it generated RMB162.35B in revenue and RMB22.64B in net profit attributable to shareholders. Aluminum alloy products alone brought in RMB106.10B, or 65.3% of total revenue. Sales volume for aluminum alloy was about 5.824 million tonnes, basically stable year over year, while the average selling price still rose 3.8% to RMB18,216 per tonne.

So I’m not fully sure the market is still pricing this the right way. Feels like the conversation stays stuck on “commodity name,” while the actual setup may be more tied to long-cycle grid and infrastructure demand than people think.

Anyone else looking at 1378.HK from that angle, or is that a stretch?

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u/Serious_Truck283 — 16 hours ago