u/SadComparison9352

These are the options:

1. Escalate conflict to force open the straits and more energy infra may get destroyed, to the point opening the straits would be less useful. And this may drag on a few months. This would drain US ammos which are already heavily depleted leaving not much for self-defense .

2. cave in to Iran’s demands but that would be a big humiliation and Iran will control the straits and charge tolls . Accomplished nothing but gave iran everything. The end of pax Americana which a big deal similar to the suez canal crisis. Also Gulf states won’t accept iran controlling the straits?

3. stalemale for another 1-2 months: time is ticking, fuel shortage, rising inflation and oil price, rising bond yields (already in danger territory), recession risk rises

4. iran economy collapses within 2 months, this may or may not be a miscalculation , but as noted by a commenter, iran may continue to fight when economy collapses. They may bring down the entire world as a last resort

5. peace deal (both sides compromise): seems unlikely though, they have been negotiating for 2 months but made absolutely no progress

It really seems the first 3 options are more likely . But 1 and 3 would result in a market crash. Option 2 would save the economy but it is admitting defeat (plus Gulf states which are US allies may not accept)

What do y’all think?

US and China have been preventing catastrophic fall out by draining their reserves and China reselling its oil shipments to other nations.

They are signalling a willingness to intervene to prevent a disastrous outcome.

Global governments have been softening the blow through work from home/rationing/demand destruction.

straits eventually will open. Even the embargo in 1970 ended in 6 months.

china alone has 1.2 bn barrels in reserves.

gulf states Iraq, UAE and Qatar have been secretly exporting using dark fleets / convoy of trucks / pipeline the same technique iran has been using. Iran has been allowing ships to go to pakistan and china which in turn resells its shipments. Each day a handful of ships pass through providing a small supply . Just today iran said that 30 ships have passed since Wednesday.

It seems iran doesn’t really wsnt to crash the global economy but deal just enough pain to teach a lesson.

exports have been ramped up around the world.

Real net loss is likely around 5-8% instead of 20%.

Yes there will be inflation and slower economic growth but likely not enough to cause a global recession.

What do you guys think?

I have been selling put spreads to get juicy premiums. on Memory and semi ETFs. Anyone else doing the same? Share what you are doing?

Any interesting strategy out there ?

I think this can continue for a few more weeks .. even if there is an energy shock it would only surface a few months later

As per title? Just curious anyone here has decent or great success , preferably beating S&P (purely from wheeling alone)?

What stocks do you wheel on?

I have been doing wheeling for some time but feels like not worth the time and work.

Also it is difficult to select good and stable stocks to wheel on. I have been doing telecommunications stocks like AMT, VZ, comcast and Chtr but was burned by chtr and “riskier” stocks like robinhood and other LETFs.

How do you really know the stocks you selected won’t suffer from declining business and therefore declining stock price?

If the stock you selected is volatile enough you might as well just buy on dip or do some swing trading.

Usually stocks with higher Iv come with higher risks, stocks that are more stable has less IV.

Wheeling also takes significant effort up to like 10x work vs just buy the dip and hold. It is also difficult to truly master the skills and understand the technicalities / nuances of options. There are just too many variables. Know when to cut when to accept assignment when to roll. Just too much skills to learn

It is difficult to execute wheeling in practice.

If you decide to roll, you may end up with multiple open positions over some time and you need to keep track of them and manage them. It’s too much cognitive load. Often the rolled positions may get worse over time, ie the loss becomes greater. And when you decide to cut loss, you basically undo a few weeks of gains

When a stock crashes down hard you cannot sell CCs as your cost basis is way out. If you do sell CCs below your cost basis then you risk selling the stock at a loss when it gets called away or missing out on gains when the stock rebound strongly. There are couple of times I missed out gains when the price shot up above my CCs. The opportunity cost is significant enough to be several weeks worth of wheeling premiums.

If you sell CSPs, you may end up buying a stock at a much higher price.

The risk and reward ratio is like picking pennies while potentially losing thousands.

I think wheeling only makes sense for a stock that is on the uptrend or sideways, otherwise can easily wipe away your gains .

Has anyone compared the returns of wheeling vs buy&hold / buy on dips or DCA?