u/NoPayment6326

For the first time in decades of U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly data, the U.S. is on the edge of becoming a net crude exporter.

• Total crude + product exports surged to ~12.9 mbd a record

• Global buyers are turning to the U.S. as supply fears rise

• The real risk isn’t U.S. supply — it’s the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint

Simple takeaway:

Middle East tension drives the fear.

U.S. supply drives the trade.

Hormuz is the story. Houston is the flow.

Here's a quick look at futures positions:

USD Index: 98.540 ↑

Crude Oil (Jun ’26): 103.27 ↑

30Y T-Bond: 113.13 ↓ (−4 ticks)

S&P 500 E-mini: 7172.50 ↑ (+6 ticks)

Gold: 4575.10 ↓

The big thing right now is a lack of correlation:

USD and Crude both higher / unusual

Bonds down while the USD is up → not correlated

S&P and Crude moving up → adds to mixed sentiment

Bond, Gold down; USD up (normal)

So, this appears a confused macro environment, with "normal" relationships not as clear. This is typically a sign of uncertainty or changing expectations, or positioning misalignments.

That gold is still holding up its inverse relationship with the USD is clearer, but otherwise things seem a little "off".

Interesting to hear people's thoughts - just some jitters or a larger trend starting to develop?