u/No-Mud-2777

Champions x

COME ON!!!

Ok - it’s easy now.

If Arsenal drop ANY points, we’re champions.

If Arsenal DON’T drop any points, we’re champions if we beat West Ham (a) OR if we draw and Arsenal don’t win their remaining four games by a combined total of eight goals.

The remaining WSL fixtures:

Wednesday 6th May - Brighton v Arsenal

Saturday 9th May - Villa v Arsenal

Wednesday 13th May - Arsenal v Everton

Saturday 16th May - West Ham v City, Liverpool v Arsenal

As expected, Arsenal beat Leicester - and they won big. 7-0. I said to someone before the game that I’d be happy enough with anything less than an 8-0. So thank you Leicester, I guess??

Arsenal's maximum points total remains 53, so 54 is still the target. We're currently on 49, so we can’t win the title by beating Liverpool at the Joie on Sunday. The ONLY way we can reach 54 points is to beat Liverpool (h) and West Ham (a).

Assuming Arsenal keep winning, four points (a win and a draw) could be enough but we'd be relying on goal difference (we're currently six ahead), and more big Arsenal wins could wipe that out.

The 54 point target will decrease by two points if Arsenal draw a game, and three points if they lose one. A draw or a loss for Arsenal makes it harder for them to catch us up on goal difference too.

Here are the remaining WSL fixtures:

Sunday 3rd May - City v Liverpool

Wednesday 6th May - Brighton v Arsenal

Saturday 9th May - Villa v Arsenal

Wednesday 13th May - Arsenal v Everton

Saturday 16th May - West Ham v City, Liverpool v Arsenal

It's a big ask for Arsenal to win all of those games with the Champions League to compete for as well, but they're very capable. They haven't dropped points against a team outside the 'big' four since 16th November when they drew at Spurs. I think their toughest game on paper is Villa away - many will be looking at Brighton away given that they beat us on Saturday, but Brighton will probably rest players ahead of their FA Cup semi-final v Liverpool a few days later.

Sunday is HUGE.

Right that was rubbish. The pies were even worse. Well done Brighton. We’ve made it a lot harder for ourselves. But we move.

Arsenal’s maximum points total is 53, so 54 is still the target. We’re currently on 49. The only way we can reach 54 points is to beat Liverpool (h) and West Ham (a).

Four points (a win and a draw) could be enough but we’d be relying on goal difference (we’re currently 13 ahead), and a couple of big Arsenal wins could wipe that out (who remembers Chelsea beating Bristol City 8-0 and United 6-0 in the run-in after we blew it against Arsenal two seasons ago?).

The 54 point target will decrease by two points if Arsenal draw a game, and three points if they lose one. A draw or a loss for Arsenal makes it harder for them to catch us up on goal difference too.

There’s still a possibility we could lift the trophy at the Joie if we beat Liverpool on Sunday, but that relies on Arsenal dropping points against Leicester at the Emirates on Wednesday. I don’t think that’ll happen.

Here are the remaining WSL fixtures:

Wednesday 29th April - Arsenal v Leicester

Sunday 3rd May - City v Liverpool

Wednesday 6th May - Brighton v Arsenal

Saturday 9th May - Villa v Arsenal

Wednesday 13th May - Arsenal v Everton

Saturday 16th May - West Ham v City, Liverpool v Arsenal

It’s a big ask for Arsenal to win all of those games with the Champions League to compete for as well, but they’re very capable. They haven’t dropped points against a team outside the ‘big’ four since 16th November when they drew at Spurs.

We could still finish below Chelsea btw, but that’s so unlikely it’s barely worth acknowledging :)