u/No-Author-1791

▲ 152 r/Stocksyourknowledge+6 crossposts

With a single-day unrealized gain of $170,000, the total assets in my core account have officially crossed the $6.1 million threshold.

Back in 2015, when I transferred my initial seed capital of $80,211.39 into this account, I set this precise long-term goal in my mind. Today, at the age of 35, I officially declare: I am officially calling it quits today. The goal has been achieved; I am bidding a definitive farewell to any form of active daily trading or management, entrusting the growth of my wealth entirely to the "Owner's Earnings" generated by these great enterprises.

I know that when many people look at this chart, their eyes will fixate solely on NVDA—specifically its nearly 300% return and the unrealized gain of over $1 million on that single stock—or perhaps on the multi-bagger profits from TSM and MU. Most people will attribute this success to "good luck—winning a bet on the AI ​​sector."

They couldn't be more wrong.

As an allocator of "Rational Capital," I never pay a premium for nebulous, intangible "concepts." I took heavy positions in these computing power and semiconductor infrastructure providers not because the news cycle was screaming about AI every day, but because I had peeled back the layers of the 10-K financial reports filed by the major tech giants.

While the market was still caught up in speculative sentiment, I saw only the coldest, hardest business logic: downstream industry giants, desperate to defend their competitive moats, were compelled to engage in a defensive CapEx (Capital Expenditure) arms race of staggering magnitude. And these massive expenditures—totaling in the hundreds of billions—would, without a shadow of a doubt, ultimately translate into tangible Free Cash Flow on the balance sheets of NVDA and TSM. This represents the pinnacle of monopolistic pricing power—the only form of intrinsic value truly worthy of my capital allocation.

The journey from $80,000 to $6 million was an incredibly monotonous one. There was no frequent portfolio turnover, no day trading—only a dogged focus on underlying business fundamentals, a patient wait for prices to dip within a safe margin of safety, and then—acting like a true "Business Owner"—a complete disregard for all macroeconomic noise and jagged market volatility. Once you grasp the divergence between price and value, investing becomes an exceedingly tedious—yet inevitably victorious—game.

To my fellow travelers in this circle who truly understand financial modeling and manage real capital: I will see you at the summit.

u/No-Author-1791 — 1 day ago
▲ 20 r/Investments+4 crossposts

I see too many guys on here screening for low EV/EBITDA and wondering why their "deep value" play keeps tanking.

EBITDA is management fiction. Depreciation is a real expense, and stock-based compensation (SBC) is real dilution. Ignore them, and your valuation is garbage.

When I tear apart a 10-K, I only care about Owner's Earnings. The hardest part of modeling isn't finding a low multiple—it’s separating growth CapEx from maintenance CapEx. If a business prints $1B in operating cash but burns $900M just to keep the lights on and defend its moat, that's a value trap. I only allocate capital when there is a massive cash surplus left over. That’s the only money that actually belongs to us.

Crossed $1M, sitting at +13% YTD. The 1-month chart is a choppy mess, but I don't trade the noise. Capital preservation just means buying real Owner's Earnings with a wide margin of safety and sitting on your hands.

Curious how the actual modelers here handle maintenance CapEx. Are you just using historical D&A averages or digging into actual asset lifespans?

u/No-Author-1791 — 7 days ago

I see too many guys on here screening for low EV/EBITDA and wondering why their "deep value" play keeps tanking.

EBITDA is management fiction. Depreciation is a real expense, and stock-based compensation (SBC) is real dilution. Ignore them, and your valuation is garbage.

When I tear apart a 10-K, I only care about Owner's Earnings. The hardest part of modeling isn't finding a low multiple—it’s separating growth CapEx from maintenance CapEx. If a business prints $1B in operating cash but burns $900M just to keep the lights on and defend its moat, that's a value trap. I only allocate capital when there is a massive cash surplus left over. That’s the only money that actually belongs to us.

Crossed $1M, sitting at +13% YTD. The 1-month chart is a choppy mess, but I don't trade the noise. Capital preservation just means buying real Owner's Earnings with a wide margin of safety and sitting on your hands.

Curious how the actual modelers here handle maintenance CapEx. Are you just using historical D&A averages or digging into actual asset lifespans?

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u/No-Author-1791 — 9 days ago
▲ 19 r/CryptoFlowAnalytics+1 crossposts

I see too many guys on here screening for low EV/EBITDA and wondering why their "deep value" play keeps tanking.

EBITDA is management fiction. Depreciation is a real expense, and stock-based compensation (SBC) is real dilution. Ignore them, and your valuation is garbage.

When I tear apart a 10-K, I only care about Owner's Earnings. The hardest part of modeling isn't finding a low multiple—it’s separating growth CapEx from maintenance CapEx. If a business prints $1B in operating cash but burns $900M just to keep the lights on and defend its moat, that's a value trap. I only allocate capital when there is a massive cash surplus left over. That’s the only money that actually belongs to us.

The screenshot is my core account. Crossed $1M, sitting at +13% YTD. The 1-month chart is a choppy mess, but I don't trade the noise. Capital preservation just means buying real Owner's Earnings with a wide margin of safety and sitting on your hands.

Curious how the actual modelers here handle maintenance CapEx. Are you just using historical D&A averages or digging into actual asset lifespans?

u/No-Author-1791 — 11 days ago
▲ 52 r/StocksAndTrading+1 crossposts

Saw a post asking when people "officially became profitable day traders" and what their "click" moment was.

Honestly? My "click" moment was realizing that staring at 1-minute candles and trading zero-day options is just a casino with extra steps.

The real turning point for my portfolio was when I completely stopped trading and started investing. I shifted my entire focus to bottom-up fundamentals: reading 10-Ks, calculating free cash flow yields, and identifying wide-moat businesses.

Here is the "since inception" curve on my account since making that shift. +152%. No day trading, no margin stress. Just buying heavily discounted cash-flowing businesses and sitting on my hands. Those dips you see on the chart? Those weren't stop-losses triggering; they were just irrational market sell-offs that gave me a wider margin of safety to accumulate more shares.

Curious about the other fundamental guys here: Did you start out trying to day-trade the noise before realizing deep value is the only real way to compound wealth?

u/No-Author-1791 — 16 days ago