Likelihood of fall out
tl;dr because I got carried away with the detail (because it provides some context I suspect would be important in calculating the odds): how likely is it that they actually go through with this?
Hi, all. You can guess the scenario. I joined an app that had an in-platform camming service and got catfished by someone. Suffice it to say, there exists a video I dislike. I provided no name, no number, but they managed to reverse image search successfully and found me. I own a small startup with some very minor social media presence, but that was enough for them to obviously get the name of all of my colleagues, many friends, and some family. They brought all of this to me via multiple channels with a copy of the video and gave the usual extortion song and dance: "blah blah, not here to ruin your life, here to make money, send us [large amount of crypto]." They clearly partially went through one of those unreliable data brokers because they had some misinformation about who I knew, but the contacts list was enough for me to be quite alarmed.
Stupid me, I figured, "ok, there are 2 options: 1. this is good faith, I pay, it ends, and 2. it's not good faith, I pay, they keep extorting me, in which case I'm back to the current position but with less money." So, I was going along with their request, but fortunately the money got delayed transferring into my account due to some regulations. They were ok with this, but I took the time to look up what to do. Well, that's led me to all of you, and I've learned that it's not in good faith, so I should just hunker down now.
Now, I've been able to deduce exactly where they've found all the information they did, and have it all on lock-down. The appropriate people have been warned, everyone's accounts are private, etc etc. Unless they recorded a lot of personal information about the individuals they named in their message to me before reaching out, there is effectively no way for them to regain that information or target the correct people going forward. I'm obviously not going to pay them and am setting up for the fall out, which seems like it will be fairly minimal with the social precautions I've taken, but I'm still curious what the over-under is on them having already collected enough information about those in my orbit to pull the trigger. Based on everyone's experience and from those in the know who are helping folks out on this sub, I'm hoping to get an idea of the band of likelihoods. Are we talking 5-10%? 50/50? Just preparing myself for just how likely it is that I'll need to activate the last bits of damage control.
If it adjusts the calculus at all, I did initially agree too quickly to pay, and it was...quite a large sum after I looked up the crypto price, so I imagine that did place a bigger target on my head. I'm not sure if that only impacts how persistent they are, or if it also affects the likelihood of them pulling the trigger as punishment for not acquiescing.
I do understand that it's rare, but it happened to a friend of mine a decade ago, and I worry my initial reaction skews things against me. I'm banking on them not having acquired sufficient information in the first sweep.