u/Mother-Grapefruit-45

two teenagers walked into the islamic center of san diego sunday morning and opened fire. killed a security guard and two staff members at the islamic school. all of the kids are safe because the guard held the door. he was a father of eight.

one of the suspects has been identified as cain clark, 17. virtual student at madison high. was on track to graduate this month. his mother called police hours before the attack and told them her son was missing along with her car and three of her weapons. said he was suicidal and with another person, both dressed in camo.

police found both suspects dead in a car a few blocks away. hate speech carved on the weapons. suicide note with writings about racial pride. anti-islamic writing in the BMW. FBI investigating as hate crime. they also hit a second location where a landscaper was shot but survived because the bullet hit his helmet.

NYPD deployed extra officers to mosques across new york city. LAPD did the same in LA. the islamic center said it will stay closed until further notice. this happened on the first day of dhul hijjah, one of the holiest periods in islam. the mosque is the biggest in san diego county and houses a weekend school for arabic and islamic studies.

the guards friend said he deeply cared about his community and gave his life for the people inside. police called his actions heroic and said the attack could have been much worse.

iran formed something called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority this week. theyre working with oman to build a mechanism that requires commercial vessels to get permits before transiting hormuz. this is not a temporary blockade anymore. this is iran building permanent regulatory infrastructure over the chokepoint that handles 20 percent of global oil.

traffic through hormuz has been running at about 5 percent of the pre-war average since the strait closed in late february. 191 vessels in all of april versus 3000 a month before the war. thats according to lloyds list intelligence.

the energy shock is feeding directly into inflation. US CPI went from 2.4 to 3.8 in five months. PPI hit 6 percent. wholesale gasoline up 15.6 percent in a single month driving over 40 percent of the april goods increase. the bond market responded by pushing the 30 year yield to 5.13 percent, highest since may 2025. 10 year at 4.6, 15 month high.

markets were pricing in 3 rate cuts at the start of the year. now theyre pricing in a possible hike. kevin warsh, the new fed chair confirmed may 13, holds his first FOMC june 17 inheriting the worst inflation backdrop since the 70s supply shocks.

meanwhile a drone struck the UAE Barakah nuclear plant on sunday. three drones entered from the western border, two intercepted, one caused a fire at an electrical generator. first time the plant has been targeted. saudi arabia intercepted three drones from iraqi airspace the same day.

the market is telling you this is not a temporary disruption. oil at 110. gold testing 4540 support. the 30 year bond selling off. all of it points to a new price regime until hormuz reopens or alternatives get built.

sources: washington times, CNN, CNBC, france24, lloyds list intelligence, BLS

the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on may 17 for the ebola outbreak in eastern DRC and uganda. this is the bundibugyo strain. different from zaire which existing vaccines target. there are currently no approved therapeutics or vaccines for this strain.

as of may 16 there were eight lab confirmed cases, 246 suspected, and 80 suspected deaths in ituri province eastern DRC. total now past 88 deaths and 300 suspected.

two confirmed cases appeared in kampala uganda within 24 hours on may 15 and 16. both travelers from DRC with no link to each other. that cross border spread triggered the emergency declaration.

an american national tested positive in the DRC on monday. the US invoked a public health law to limit entry from the affected region. CDC is coordinating to get affected americans out.

the only experimental vaccine candidate has been tested on monkeys with about 50 percent efficacy. no human trials.

context that matters: USAID was shuttered earlier this year and the US withdrew from WHO in january. the global health response system is running on less infrastructure than any ebola outbreak in the last decade.

sources: WHO may 17 PHEIC declaration, NPR, CNN, Time, STAT News

friday closed with the 30-year treasury yield at its highest level since may 22 2025, approaching territory not seen consistently since before the 2008 financial crisis. that is the bond market pricing in a HIKE not a cut.

CPI 3.8 percent in april. PPI 6 percent annual with wholesale gasoline up 15.6 percent in a single month, driving over 40 percent of the april goods increase. core CPI 2.8 percent.

powell's second term as chair expired friday may 15. kevin warsh confirmed by the senate may 13 in a 54 to 45 vote, the narrowest margin since 1977. warsh told the senate banking committee he wants "regime change" at the fed including changing how the central bank measures inflation.

bank of america's aditya bhave (may 8 note) now forecasts no rate cuts until july 2027. jpmorgan's michael feroli forecasts the next fed move is a 25bp HIKE in Q3 2027, not a cut. goldman has pushed cuts to december 2026. trader markets are now fully pricing in one fed hike by march, with more than a 50 percent chance rates rise before the end of 2026.

separately: gold dropped 114 dollars on friday in a single day (opened 4652, closed 4538, low 4511 intraday on the broker daily candle). silver collapsed from a weekly high near 88 to a 75.89 close. inflation hedges are crashing into accelerating inflation. the bond market is winning that fight via real rates.

the cause of the inflation is hormuz. iran has restricted shipping since early march, 20 percent of world oil and LNG normally moves through the strait. trump rejected iran's MOU counter-proposal on may 10 and 11 as "garbage." no signed diplomatic path forward. project freedom paused may 6. the nvidia h200 deal was approved by the US in january but blocked by china pushing domestic huawei ascend. anthropic published "2028: two scenarios for global AI leadership" on may 14 framing this exact h200 dynamic as the global AI inflection point.

warsh's first FOMC is june 17. the bond market is already doing his job for him.

friday's gold move is the bond market talking. gold opened 4652 and closed 4538 on the broker daily candle, low of 4511 intraday. 114 dollar single-day drop. silver collapsed from a weekly high near 88 down to a 75.89 close.

this looks insane when CPI is at 3.8 percent (highest since may 2023) and PPI is at 6 percent with wholesale gasoline up 15.6 percent in a single month. gold is supposed to be the inflation hedge.

the answer is real rates. 30 year treasury yield at the highest level since may 22 2025, approaching territory not seen consistently since before 2008. when nominal yields rise that fast while inflation is sticky, real rates rise. gold pays no yield. bonds now pay more than they have in nearly two decades. opportunity cost of holding gold goes up.

powell's term as fed chair expired friday may 15. kevin warsh confirmed may 13 (54 to 45, narrowest since 1977). warsh told the senate banking committee he wants "regime change" at the fed including changing how the central bank measures inflation. bank of america's aditya bhave (may 8 note) forecasts no cuts until july 2027. jpmorgan's michael feroli forecasts the next move is a 25bp hike in Q3 2027, not a cut.

the trump xi summit ended friday after trump rejected iran's MOU counter-proposal on may 10 and 11 as "garbage." no concrete commitment on hormuz. boeing got 200 jets not 500. nvidia h200 deal is approved by the US but blocked by china pushing domestic huawei ascend. anthropic published "2028: two scenarios for global AI leadership" on may 14 framing this exact dynamic as the global AI inflection point.

hormuz is the root cause of the energy inflation. 11 weeks of strait closure, 20 percent of global oil and LNG normally moves through. until that opens, energy stays elevated. but the bond market does not wait for diplomacy. it prices the inflation and tightens.

gold is caught between inflation (bullish) and rising real rates (bearish). real rates are winning right now.

powell's second term as chair expired friday may 15. kevin warsh was confirmed by the senate may 13 in a 54 to 45 vote, the narrowest margin since 1977. warsh told the senate banking committee he wants "regime change" at the fed including changing how the central bank measures inflation.

he walks into this:

inflation is accelerating. CPI 3.8 percent in april, the highest since may 2023. PPI 6 percent annual with wholesale gasoline up 15.6 percent in a single month, driving over 40 percent of the april goods increase. core CPI 2.8 percent.

bond market already moved. 30 year yield at the highest level since may 2025, approaching territory not seen consistently since before 2008. traders are fully pricing in one fed rate hike by march, with more than a 50 percent chance rates rise before the end of 2026.

bank of america's aditya bhave said may 8: "the data simply don't warrant cuts this year. core inflation is too high, and moving up." BofA now forecasts no rate cuts until july 2027 (revised from september 2026). jpmorgan's michael feroli forecasts zero cuts in 2026 and the next move being a 25bp hike in Q3 2027.

the iran war is week 11. hormuz is still blocked. trump rejected iran's MOU counter-proposal on may 10 and 11 as "totally unacceptable." iran says it will "never bow." iran's parliament is now discussing weapons-grade enrichment if conflict resumes. project freedom paused may 6. no signed diplomatic path forward.

separately, the US approved nvidia h200 sales to about 10 chinese firms in january with a 25 percent fee, but beijing is blocking the imports to push domestic huawei ascend. anthropic published "2028: two scenarios for global AI leadership" on may 14 framing this exact dynamic as the global AI inflection point.

warsh argues AI productivity gains create room to cut. the data and the bond market disagree. the new chair's first FOMC is june 17.

a study published in science advances found that the atlantic meridional overturning circulation is likely to weaken by 42 to 58 percent by end of century. thats the system that moves warm water north and keeps europe and the eastern US temperate.

previous estimates were more conservative. this study says the decline is significantly worse than many models projected.

if AMOC weakens that much the effects include colder winters in europe, disrupted monsoon patterns in africa and asia, accelerated sea level rise on the US east coast, and major shifts in marine ecosystems.

this is not a 2100 problem only. the weakening is already measurable. the question is how fast the decline accelerates and whether any feedback loops push it past a tipping point before models expect.

I've been building an agent setup for a while now. One thing I noticed is that they can log their actions just fine. But when a similar situation comes up again, they act as if it's the first time. They do not seem to carry the weight of their own mistakes into the decision. I'm not talking about only vector memory. I mean something closer to, “I tried this before, it hurt, so my threshold for doing it again should be different.”

Has anyone solved this without just dumping more context into the context window? Or is this just the current ceiling?

PPI came out this morning. producer prices surged 1.4% month over month in april, triple the 0.5% forecast. year over year producer inflation is running at 6.0%.

energy is the main driver. wholesale gasoline jumped 15.6% in one month because the iran war is still disrupting hormuz. services prices went up 1.2%, led by machinery wholesaling margins.

yesterday CPI came in at 3.8%. today PPI at 6%. the gap between what businesses pay and what you pay is the widest in years. that gap closes one way: your prices go up more.

the new fed chair takes over friday. he walks into 3.8% consumer inflation, 6% producer inflation, and a war nobody knows how to end. first rate decision june 18.

genuinely asking because i keep reading that inflation is temporary and the fed will cut rates eventually but todays BLS numbers say otherwise. 3.8% year over year, highest since 2023. core at 2.8% above forecast. bank of america says no rate cuts until 2027.

i cut travel plans because airline fares are up 20% and i started meal planning tighter after groceries went up 0.7% in april alone. but i am wondering if people are doing more drastic stuff like refinancing, changing retirement contributions, or just riding it out assuming it comes back down.

what are you actually doing differently since the war started pushing energy and food costs up

senate voted 49-44 yesterday to advance kevin warsh. final board confirmation vote is today. separate chair vote later this week. jerome powell last day as chair is friday may 15.

the weird part: powell is not leaving the FOMC. he is staying as a governor. so the old chair and the new chair will be sitting at the same table making rate decisions together. that has never happened before either.

warsh wants to shrink the fed balance sheet and stop using forward guidance as a policy tool. basically the opposite approach from the last decade. he told the senate the fed needs to stay in its lane and stop doing fiscal policy.

all of this is landing the same week CPI came in at 3.8%, above forecast, highest since 2023. no rate cuts expected this year. bank of america says maybe 2027.

the fed powell built is being replaced by something fundamentally different and the transition is happening during an inflation spike caused by a war.

BLS just dropped April CPI. 3.8% year over year. that is the highest since September 2023 and it beat the 3.7% everyone was expecting.

energy up 17.9% over the year. but here is the part nobody talks about. airline fares up 20.7%. food at home up 0.7% in one month. those are the second order effects of shutting down Hormuz. fertilizer can not get through. diesel runs everything that moves products. jet fuel runs every flight.

core inflation (strip out food and energy) still came in at 2.8%. above forecast. so it is not ONLY energy anymore. it is spreading.

no rate cuts this year. bank of america says maybe 2027. powells last day as fed chair is friday. warsh takes over next week. the fed you knew is gone.

Brown University launched an Iran War Energy Cost Tracker that breaks this down.

Gasoline alone accounts for $20 billion of the increase. Diesel adds another $16.9 billion, and that hits farming, trucking, and rail costs that get passed to consumers in everything from groceries to shipping.

Stanford projected the average household will pay $857 more for gas over the rest of this year. Airlines are passing jet fuel costs (up 75%) directly to ticket prices.

CPI hit 3.3% annualized, highest since May 2024. Most of that is energy driven.

Trump floated suspending the federal gas tax yesterday but needs Congress to act.

the hacking group ShinyHunters gave Instructure until May 12 to pay ransom or they release the data. thats tomorrow. 275 million records including names, emails, student IDs, and private messages from 9,000 schools including Harvard, Columbia, Princeton, Georgetown.

platform came back online but nobody confirmed whether a ransom was paid. Instructure has not publicly acknowledged any negotiation. ShinyHunters posted a PAY OR LEAK warning and said Instructure is not engaging.

FERPA itself doesnt mandate breach notification to students or families. state laws do (New Yorks Ed Law 2-d uses a 60 day standard, other states vary). Title IV schools have a separate same-day reporting obligation to the Department of Education through FSA agreements. point is: the federal framework for educational data doesnt require schools to tell you directly. Instructure detected unauthorized access April 29 and most institutions still havent said a word.

what gets lost in the headline is how it happened. ShinyHunters exploited a vulnerability in the Free-For-Teacher account system to gain access. their attack methodology has evolved from bulk consumer database theft in 2020 to Snowflake credential theft in 2024 to AI-generated vishing in 2025 to targeting third-party integrators to reach downstream institutions in 2026. Canvas is a single point of failure for 41% of US educational institutions.

the group has been described by cybersecurity analysts as a loose affiliation of teenagers and young adults based in the US and UK.

sources: CNN Canvas hack coverage, NPR Canvas data breach reporting, Fisher Phillips institutional response guide, IBTimes ShinyHunters deadline reporting, Malwarebytes student data breach analysis.

[edit: corrected FERPA claim per @InfosecHolic. FERPA doesnt mandate breach notification. state laws do. original post said 60 days from FERPA which was wrong.]

the MV Hondius docked in Tenerife today with 147 people from 23 countries after 3 passengers died from Andes hantavirus. now 10 flights are scattering them globally.

every country doing it differently. Spain military hospital. France 72 hours hospital plus 45 days home quarantine. Netherlands home quarantine. UK hospitalized. US flying them to Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska but CDC says no quarantine while the governor says mandatory 42 day isolation.

the economic angle nobody is talking about: if even one case pops up outside the ship in the next 6 weeks, cruise and travel stocks take a hit, port authorities start screening, and we get quarantine debates in 23 legislatures simultaneously. the 42 day ECDC monitoring window runs until mid-June.

Andes virus is the only hantavirus that spreads human to human. a French passenger showed symptoms on the repatriation flight today.

not saying this becomes the next pandemic. saying that 23 countries with inconsistent protocols for a human-transmissible pathogen from one ship is a coordination gap with economic consequences if anything goes sideways.

sources: WHO, ECDC, CDC, CNN, NBC News.

the MV Hondius docked in Tenerife today after 3 passengers died from Andes hantavirus. 147 people on board from 23 countries are now being repatriated on 10 separate flights. every country is handling quarantine differently.

Spain sent theirs to a military hospital. France is doing 72 hours hospital then 45 days home quarantine. Netherlands says quarantine at home. UK is hospitalizing for observation. Ireland says lengthy isolation. the US is flying passengers to Offutt Air Force Base, not a civilian hospital. the CDC says they will not quarantine anyone. Nebraskas governor says they will be isolated for up to 42 days and will not be able to leave. the federal government and the state are already contradicting each other before the plane has landed.

one French passenger showed symptoms on the repatriation flight. if confirmed, everyone on that plane was potentially exposed and France goes from a cruise ship incident to a domestic case.

the Andes virus is the only known hantavirus that transmits between humans. ECDC recommends monitoring for 42 days from May 6 which means mid-June. six weeks where a returned passenger in any of 23 countries could test positive.

the systemic risk here is not the virus itself. the fatality rate is brutal but the case count is small. the risk is in the dispersal. 23 countries, 10 flights, inconsistent protocols, a 42-day incubation window, and a federal government that cannot agree with its own state on whether quarantine is happening. we watched this exact coordination failure play out before.

sources: WHO, ECDC, CDC, CNN, NBC News, Government.nl, French Foreign Ministry.

Four weeks of US naval blockade on Iranian ports. No commercial shipping through the strait since Wednesday. CENTCOM has turned back 58 vessels and disabled 4.

The 14-point deal would freeze enrichment for 12 years, hand over 440kg of uranium enriched to 60%, lift sanctions, release frozen assets, and reopen Hormuz within 30 days. Rubio expected Iran's answer today. Iran's FM said Iranians never bow to pressure and questioned whether the tanker strikes were a crude pressure tactic or someone duping the president into another quagmire.

Iran's own deputy head of the import management committee at the Chamber of Commerce said if the strait stays closed, its strategic value to Iran drops from 100 to 20-30 within a year. The supreme leader's adviser calls Hormuz control an atomic bomb they wont give up. Their own business community is already disagreeing with that framing.

The IEA called it the biggest energy security threat in history. Consumer sentiment is at a record low. A fifth of global oil supply normally moves through that strait. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire this weekend is the only positive signal for energy markets and nobody is confident it holds past Monday.

UK is deploying HMS Dragon to pre-position for a future multinational shipping protection mission. That tells you where the betting is.

Sources: CNN, Al Jazeera, CNBC, IEA, FAO, UK Ministry of Defence

No commercial ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz since Wednesday. The US blockade on Iranian ports is now approaching 4 weeks. The IEA called the situation the biggest energy security threat in history.

The 14-point memorandum on the table would freeze Iranian enrichment for 12 years, have Iran hand over 440kg of 60% enriched uranium, lift US sanctions, release frozen Iranian assets, and reopen Hormuz within 30 days. Rubio said the US expected Iran's response today. Iran's foreign minister dismissed the deadline, said Iranians never bow to pressure, and claimed Iran's missile inventory is at 120% of pre-war levels, not the 75% the CIA cited.

The US Navy disabled two Iranian tankers trying to evade the blockade on Thursday. Trump called it a love tap. An adviser to Iran's supreme leader compared control of Hormuz to having an atomic bomb and said they wont give it up.

FAO expects global cereal supplies to hold through 2026 with production forecast up 6% year-on-year, but uncertainty remains because the Hormuz closure is driving up energy and fertilizer costs.

Consumer sentiment hit a fresh record low this month. The strait normally carries about a fifth of global oil supply. The Russia-Ukraine 3-day ceasefire (May 9-11) is the one piece of good news for energy markets today.

Sources: CNN, Al Jazeera, CNBC, NewsNation, IEA, FAO

Instructure detected unauthorized access to Canvas on April 29. ShinyHunters claimed the breach and posted a list of 8,809 affected institutions to BleepingComputer with per-school record counts.

What was exposed: usernames, email addresses, student IDs, private messages between users (ShinyHunters claims several billions), 275 million records total (their claim, not independently verified).

Entry point was Free-For-Teacher accounts. Instructure confirmed the vector and shut down those accounts.

Schools affected include Columbia, Rutgers, Princeton, Harvard, Georgetown, Kent State, plus districts across 12+ states. International exposure in UK, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, Netherlands.

UTSA pushed back Friday finals. NC Dept of Public Instruction cut Canvas access to NCEdCloud entirely. Multiple universities told students not to log in. Canvas is back online but many institutions are holding access restricted.

FBI advised: do not engage with anyone claiming to have your data, do not respond to demands, do not send payments.

ShinyHunters set May 12 as the deadline before full data leak. Same group behind the 2024 Ticketmaster breach.

Half of North American higher education runs on Canvas. 30 million users. The breach exploited a feature designed to make the platform more accessible and hit during the worst possible window.

Sources: CNN, NPR, Time, Malwarebytes, CBS, WRAL

Google's new reCAPTCHA verification path requires Google Play Services v25.41.30 or higher running in the background. When reCAPTCHA flags your traffic as suspicious, you get a QR code challenge that only Play Services can answer.

If you don't have Play Services because you're on GrapheneOS, LineageOS, or any custom ROM that strips Google software, the verification fails. There's no documented workaround.

This was announced as part of Google Cloud Fraud Defense on April 23 2026. Support pages showed the requirement quietly since October 2025. The de-googled community on Reddit caught it first, then PiunikaWeb and Android Authority picked it up. Now it's on the front page of HN at 496 points and 164 comments.

iOS users on 16.4 and above pass without anything extra. So Apple users are fine. Android users with stock Google software are fine. Custom ROM Android users get blocked.

The framing matters. Google can argue this is fraud prevention. Anti-abuse mechanisms have to anchor to something. But anchoring to a closed proprietary stack means everyone outside that stack gets locked out of basic web verification.

What's strange: Play Services running in the background for verification means the closed proprietary stack is now load-bearing for the open web. CAPTCHA was supposed to be a check-you're-human signal. It's becoming a check-you're-Google's-customer signal.

Practical impact for the de-googled crowd: any site behind reCAPTCHA can soft-block you depending on their suspicion threshold. Bank logins, ticket sites, government portals, reddit account creation all use reCAPTCHA at various points. None of them have to do this on purpose. They just inherit the upstream limitation.

If anyone has actual workarounds beyond switching browsers or accepting account loss, post them. The Reddit r/degoogle thread is collecting fragments but I haven't seen a clean answer.

Source: reclaimthenet article today, also covered by PiunikaWeb and Android Authority earlier this week.