u/Live_Acanthisitta870

Seeking help on PSA slab authenticity
▲ 3 r/PokemonTCG_Singapore+1 crossposts

Seeking help on PSA slab authenticity

  1. Is the psa slab authentic , the spacing between the first 4 number is closer but 1 7 1 3 seems further apart?

  2. How to tell for sure a slab is authentic?

  3. How to tell the different generation of slab? They said to look like first 2 cert number?

(Censor price as not to cause unnecessary problem to seller)

u/Live_Acanthisitta870 — 4 days ago

How to be smarter? (Not in a IQ manner, but how to be better in these kind of things?)

Genuine post, please advice

Encountered a very common Qn:

A fair coin is flipped repeatedly. What is the expected number of flips required to get 3 heads in a row (HHH)?

I answered 8. (Wrong)

I read an answer:

How I'd do it is to think in terms of attempts. Every attempt to flip three heads in a row ends as soon as you flip a tails and you must then start the next attempt.

Each attempt is then one of the following:

T - 1/2

HT - 1/4

HHT - 1/8

HHH - 1/8

The expected number of flips per attempt is then

(1 * 1/2) + (2 * 1/4) + (3 * 1/8) + (3 * 1/8) = 14/8

The expected number of attempts to achieve something with a probability of x is 1/x. It takes an average of two flips to get a (single) heads; it takes an average of six rolls of a die to get a 6, etc.

So you have 1/(1/8) * 14/8 = 8 * 14/8 = 14

But still took me 1+ Hour to fully understand.

How I understood is:

  1. Why 8 is wrong answer? Probability is 1/8 -> expected is 8. But this is wrong because "each trial" is not independent. "THHTHHH" is a valid case. The answer can be within a “sliding window”.

  2. The trick is like what the answer said, group it into an attempt. This makes "each attempt trial" independent.

  3. So the probability to get a successful attempt is 1/8 -> 8 attempt needed.

  4. But the average number of flip per attempt is 14/8 -> so average number of flip is 14/8 * 8 = 14

(But even saying that I "understand", I am not confident that if someone tweaks the question, I'll 100% be able to answer)

So here's a question to the geniuses here:

  1. How do you be smarter?

  2. How do you read the solution once and fully understand it?

  3. how to fully understand the concept such that even if there is a twist/variation you will still 100% know the answer?

(Context: am a young 20s SWE , grad from T10)

reddit.com
u/Live_Acanthisitta870 — 9 days ago