u/Kappa_Bera_0000

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116444507618729432

Just got off a zoom. Major bank from a pro-western East Asian country. They literally stated that if it comes down a choice between facing US secondary sanctions or losing access to trade via the Hormuz Strait, their board has told them they'll face US secondary sanctions and shut their US branches if needed. Iran can end US secondary sanctions without the US for the first time since 1996.

Non-aggression, sanctions relief, reparations; Iran literally can take all of these by controlling the Strait of Hormuz without giving up anything. We are entering unchartered waters. We might be seeing a bifurcation of the global oil markets.

UAE's economy is 25% energy exports, 15% re-export, 15% tourism, 15% finance and insurance. These have all zeroed out. At least 60% of their GDP is out of commission.

UAE is still in the war camp looking for round two with Iran. It probably won't survive round two as a sovereign entity. Kuwait and Bahrain are probably on even shakier ground, with Saudi troops on the streets of Bahrain. Oman is solid. Qatar is feeling it and KSA is on full political/security lockdown.

We could be on the cusp of a wide scale political collapse of several of the Persian Gulf monarchies. These governments rely on large numbers of foreign guest workers to stay functional. Their armies and security forces rely on trained foreigners. And their people expect a certain standard of living to tolerate disenfranchisement. These are all breaking down.

Should one fall, it may set off a domino effect and take 15% of the worlds oil and 20% of the world's LNG offline. $200-250 a barrel wouldn't be unreasonable should that happen.

Qatar: ~94–95% of the total labor force.
UAE: ~80–95% (8.7 million migrant workers).
Kuwait: ~70% of the total population, with extremely high private sector reliance.
Bahrain: Over 53% of the total population, with higher ratios in the private sector.
Saudi Arabia (KSA): Roughly 60% of the total workforce (2020 estimates).
Oman: Roughly 53-60% of the population, with significant reliance on expatriate labor.

https://x.com/Osint613/status/2045572446846136505?s=20

https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2045465756591079668?s=20

Either Trump is a pathological liar or his handlers, Jared and Whitkoff, are managing him and the flow of info to him. We just witnessed a small taste of that disconnect. Someone makes a big bet on the oil markets, Trump declares peace with himself and forgets to remove the blockade and then Iran retaliates against shippers who believed Trump.

Right now the USS Ford CSG and USS Reagan CSG are converging to rendezvous with the USS Lincoln CSG. Their goal is simple, to continue the strikes against Iran. Iran is not oblivious to this gathering storm. They are rearming and preparing to counter value strike GCC energy production hubs.

Now here's the trick. Imagine you are an insider trader in the White House. How can you maximize your gain? That's correct a wide sentiment swing. You need to condition the market to believe peace is at hand, then place your bets and boom a bolt out of nowhere strike against Iran.

Timing a rigged market is tough. But if we anticipate significant production scarring, that's not something that can reversed by commodities market manipulation.

We will break the ceasefire and attack Iran within the next few of weeks. Long live the Epstein class!

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2045214390467633535?s=20

Market manipulation