u/JaydenFuel03

Junior mining doesn’t move randomly.

It moves in steps.

Each step reduces uncertainty - and the market tends to assign a higher valuation range at each stage.

In BC copper porphyry projects, that ladder looks roughly like this:

Regional target stage: $5M–$30M EV

Geophysical anomaly defined: $20M–$80M EV

First drill holes: $30M–$150M EV

Discovery intercept: $100M–$500M EV

NI 43-101 resource: $200M–$1B+

Each transition is not incremental.

It’s often 2x to 5x re-rating, depending on results.

Right now, NovaRed sits around ~$51.5M CAD (~$37M USD).

That places it between the regional target stage and confirmed anomaly stage.

In other words, the market is starting to price in that something is there — but not yet pricing drilling success.

The 2026 geophysics program matters because it’s not just “more data.”

It’s a step on the ladder.

And historically, each completed step doesn’t just add information.

It changes the valuation framework entirely.

That’s the structure behind how juniors re-rate.

NFA

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u/JaydenFuel03 — 15 days ago

The market reads the deficit as a 2040 problem. BloombergNEF says it starts in 2026. Teck Resources beat Q2 2026 earnings on record copper sales. The deficit is now.

The market is reading the copper deficit as a 2040 problem. BloombergNEF says it starts in 2026. Teck Resources just beat Q2 2026 earnings on record copper sales. The market is pricing it now.

LME copper hit $13,240.98/tonne in January 2026. The April 2026 price of ~$4.50/lb (~$9,900/t) is lower but still historically elevated. The behavior of copper stocks since January tells the story: majors are holding gains, juniors are volatile, and the underlying physical market is tightening.

Teck's beat is the canary. When a major diversified miner posts record copper sales and beats earnings, it means the demand is already here. This is not a 2040 story. It is a right now story.

NRED's behavior through this cycle has been instructive. The stock ran 2,030% from April 2025 to April 2026. It gave back some of that on the copper pullback from $13,241. But the EV is still $37M USD, which prices it as a post-geophysics anomaly rather than a drill-stage target.

If the deficit starts in 2026 and Teck's numbers confirm demand is accelerating, the read-through for juniors with 2027 drill programs is straightforward. The market may be catching up.

NFA. Manage risk.

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u/JaydenFuel03 — 17 days ago