u/Horus_walking

>You know, some elected officials aren’t so smart, but many of them are, and they’re looking at the same numbers we’re looking at. And what they’re looking at is the president of the United States and his approval rating. So why don’t we just take a look here? Why are GOP retiring? Okay, when the president’s approval is less than 50%, I went back all the way through the record books, all the way back since 1938 in midterm elections, when the House, the prez party in the House on average loses 34 seats, loses 34 seats when the president’s approval rating is less than 50%. Donald Trump isn’t anywhere close to 50%. He’s at 40%.

>The average, the House, the House for the president party, they lose 34 seats. The least, the least was just nine. That was actually Joe Biden back in 2022. But guess what? House Democrats only need a pick up of one, two, three in order to gain a majority. So the least, even the worst case scenario for Democrats is not anywhere close to what Republicans need to hold on to the House of Representatives.

>And one little last historical anecdote, as I go over to the blackboard over here, the only two times that the president’s party did not lose at least three seats was 1998 and 2002. You know what the president’s approval rating was in those years? It was 60%+. And Donald Trump at this point is just at a 40% approval rate, nowhere near what House Republicans need. And that is why I said, they’re running to the exit.

• When pres approval is under 50% in midterms...
• Pres party avg. loss is 34 seats. The Smallest loss? 9 seats.
• Dems get a majority with a pickup of 3.