
Thoughts on LRCX? A strong player in the AI / semiconductor sector
Lam Research (LRCX) makes etch and deposition equipment - the tools that physically carve and layer the nanoscale patterns on silicon wafers. Without Lam's machines, TSMC can't build chips for Nvidia, Apple, etc.
They own about half the global etch market and that's not a position you lose easily. Switching semiconductor equipment vendors mid-production is basically unheard of.
The fundamentals are rock solid, but what stands out to me is the hiring data. They have roughly 1,200 open positions right now, and that number is up 50% from a year ago. That points to a company ready to grow!
Other signals backing it up:
- 85% positive employee business outlook (up 10.4% YoY)
- Headcount, according to LinkedIn, is up 11.7% YoY
- StockTwits subscribers up 13%, sentiment very bullish. Just a question on when it hits Reddit too.
And yes, the financials are rock solid. $20.6B TTM revenue (up 27%), 30% net margins, $6.2B free cash flow, net cash on the balance sheet. Ten consecutive quarters of revenue growth.
Upcoming catalysts: earnings this week, $135-140B WFE spending cycle, Musk's Terafab reaching out for equipment quotes, potential $16B acquisition of BE Semiconductor.
Main concern is valuation at 54x forward and the China exposure (43% of revenue) with export controls tightening. Not a cheap stock by any measure.
But I'd rather own the picks-and-shovels play in AI than try to guess which chipmaker wins. What's your take — is LRCX on your radar? More room to grow?