Total War faction tier list
I play a LOT of Total War games. It's my favorite Galactic Event by far, it makes the game so much more aggressive and dynamic. This list is based on my experience in Total War games, from the performance of these factions in those games.
I meant to take notes on a few specific factions, but then I wrote explanations for more than half, so I just finished it. Vaguely ordered within tiers.
In general: combat is more socially acceptable. HS defense is at a premium. And the more plastic you have, the bigger a target you are.
Oh, and the only objectives that matter are the first 3 you score, to unlock your hero. A majority of points in a majority of my games were Total War points.
Muatt - Nova Seed can give you like 6 points by itself. It's EXTREMELY strong. This is probably solvable with a shift in the meta (hit Muaat early, kill their warsun), but I haven't seen the meta get quite that aggressive. So, Broken Tier.
Crimson Rebellion - all their components merit an S-tier placement. But the game-breaking ability is that you CAN'T TAKE THEIR HOME SYSTEM. Any comms they get are untouchable, they can't be winslayed. I've never seen a Total War game where they were played, because players unanimously banned them before drafting started.
Sardakk - their biggest buff in this mode is social: aggression is more expected. They can invade undefended planets with their commander without people pearl-clutching about unwarranted acts of war. It's Total War! And their BT is perfectly made for it.
Nekro - do I need to explain? They love fighting. They don't even need to win to get tech out of it. Plus, since their BT sucks, they can afford to take Tech or Warfare R1.
VR Cabal - my last Total War game as Cabal, I eliminated a player before they took their first turn. 'Nuff said. But really, their capacity for building a ton of plastic is insane. Good players should avoid the temptation of free-building ships, to cripple opponents' plastic supply.
Ghosts - they can build a bunch of shit for free out of the Nexus, and they can zip around the map to snag comms from undefended home systems. A bit map dependent, and they have a tricky R1, but they've got a strong economic pace.
Mahact - commander.
DWS - considered putting them in "Broken" tier because they really are busted in async, in every format. So much tech, so much money, and everyone at the table is happy to Feed the Fish. Don't Feed the Fish. If you Don't Feed the Fish, they're B-tier; good fundamentals, strong flagship, nothing crazy. But everybody Feeds the Fish.
Yin - it's the flagship. A less-broken but repeatable Nova Seed. Hero is less impactful but still good for taking out underdefended SDs.
L1Z1X - Bombard is a REALLY efficient way to rack up points. Solid all-around race, but they shine in TW. Their BT gives planets enough infantry to be tricky to take, but not so much that they're a juicy prize.
Bastion - probably ought to be low-b, but I'm biased towards them. They benefit a lot from a high-aggression table, since they can Galvanize from small combats without triggering a permanent whole-table Anti-Meanie Alliance.
Mentak - Actually pretty decent! Like Sardakk, they benefit a lot from a more aggressive table. Their commander and racial techs are great for picking off small fleets, and they can cripple neighbors as early as R1 with their 2 cruisers. Snagging PNs with their commander is a nice upside to all the little skirmishes. I've won as them before.
Sol, Keleres, Arborec - these factions have a lot of capacity to produce a lot of fighters and infantry. Unfortunately for them, killing fighters and infantry is the most efficient way to earn TW points. These factions are worse in this format, because they become huge targets without any extra bonus for actually WINNING combats.
Sol - amazing fundamentals and great prod capacity. I've just never seen them do very well. Big fighter fleets and big infantry planets are big targets. I'd guess they're properly A, when played correctly for the format.
Yssaril - Action Cards are good.
Titans, Argent, and Ral-Nel - cheap and efficient ships are good! You're a less tempting target, and you can still put up a fight. But this isn't as much of an upside as you might expect.
Ral-Nel - hard to attack into with their PDS and retreat abilities, so a decent player can defensively boat-float most of the game. Great AC selection and diplomatic tools. Not so great at taking planets, but that's less important when all the potential VPs are in space. Plus, you can snag a few cheap TW comms by just attacking with 3 Destroyers and immediately retreating. 5x3, Assault Cannon, and 6x10 for the cost of one sacrificial Destroyer.
Saar - a bit worse in TW, since they do need to protect their HS in this mode. Still solid. Biggest asset, Floating Factories, has no resource cost so it's a less tempting target.
Naalu - 0 initiative continues to be GREAT. Their fighter fleets are juicy targets, but tricky to actually beat in space with the +1.
Titans - Barely squeaking into B on account of their Hero, which makes HS defense much easier. Clunky tech path really hurts them. Efficient ships that come online too late to let them run away with things.
Keleres - kinda swingy because of all the Agenda shenanigans. They DO have the kickass ability to spend all their TW comms at once, with their commander. I haven't seen them played in this format, so this is a guess, but I'd say their distributed fleet and high fighter production is more of a liability than an asset.
Hacan - Hero is pretty nice. Being rich is pretty nice. But few tools to win combats, so I see them more as a stepping stone to victory than a real contender. Still, good fundamentals, good BT, viable option.
Barony - another "good on paper, not in practice" race. Never seen them get close to victory, across many games. I don't know why, though. They've got the resources, the combat ability, the tech path, the breakthrough, the movement... maybe everyone I've played with sucks, idk.
Nomad - like Sol/Arborec/Keleres, their ability works against them to a degree. Free flagship is nice, but it also means your neighbors can blow it up for 0.8 vp repeatedly. Thundarian is mostly for sale; players attacking you will take it into account, and you won't risk a big fleet action on a reroll.
NRA - no tools to win combats. They're much worse in a game where tech skips/attachments aren't the only ways to win. Seen them played once and they didn't make much impact.
Arborec - they shouldn't be bad, on paper. Paychospore SHOULD put them in at least B tier. But out of the 3 games I played with an Arborec at the table, all 3 of them lost... and all 3 of the winning players secured their victory by blowing up ~30 resources of Arborec plastic. They're just a big target. I could see them being as high as B if the players were very careful about what planets they reinforce.
Jol-Nar - I kinda want to put them higher, because tech rocks and E-Res is great. But -1 to all rolls is the death-knell for them, it's such a liability when combat is frequent.
Empyrean - never seen them played. Good defenses with their nebula HS and Breakthrough. Flagship is useful. Racial techs are solid. Little weak on fundamentals, though, and I just can't see them being the dominant force you need to be in TW.
Winnu - they suck. But everyone knows they suck. The come-from-behind victory is much more doable when everyone can do it, and Winnu has a leg up. Commander is excellent for deterring winslayers. But as I said: they suck. Terrible fundamentals. Weak racial techs. Bleh.
Obsidian - everyone knows why they're bad. Fun, tho. Worse in TW when people care less about scoring objectives. Better because Seethe can get you a few points if you're lucky.
Xxcha - they've got a few great tools, but they can't match up in combat. You might think Null Field would be good for stopping winslays... but it only stops one player. Two, max. Weak fundamentals and a PDS-focused gameplan that is just bad. Defensive tech path that doesn't help them in this format.
Argent Flight - I wish they were good. I really, really do. They're one of my absolute favorite factions, and I play them in every TW game I can. Destroyer 2, Assault Cannon, Warsuns, they seem great on paper. But they just don't come online early enough. By the time you get your Destroyer 2 online, your neighbors are too chunky to get taken out by a small, efficient Destroyer fleet. By the time Assault Cannon can help, they're even chunkier. Add to that their 3-planet HS which cripples their production capacity, the high Influence cost to maintain big FS and still take actions, and they just don't get the job done.