been going back and forth on this. the theta over the weekend accrues while markets are closed, which is nice. but you're carrying gamma risk through any weekend news, earnings pre-announcements, geopolitical stuff.
my current approach: if i'm at 70%+ capture by Thursday close i just take it. not worth holding through Friday afternoon news risk for the last 30%.
if i'm at 40-50% capture i usually let it run. two non-trading days of theta on a 21 DTE put is real money and it feels wrong to close at 50% with a week+ left.
curious what others do. is there a hard rule you use, or do you just let your stop trigger whenever it hits?
NVDA and MSFT near ATHs and the put credit at strikes i'd actually want to own them is about half what it was in early April. running MSFT 380 puts at 3 weeks, getting maybe 0.8% on cash. not terrible but not why i run the wheel either.
options are either go further OTM to keep the credit, which makes assignment less attractive. or sit on cash and wait for IVR to reset on a pullback. or roll to a name that's still got some vol in it.
curious what others do when your core names are running hot and the premium has compressed. do you chase yield further OTM, rotate to higher-IV names, or just wait it out?
Picked up a PS4 with two controllers last weekend for $40 because the guy literally said he "needed the closet space." These things move for close to $100 no problem. The number of listings where people are basically giving away perfectly working hardware never gets old. They just want it gone and honestly that gap between what they think it's worth and actual market value is where all the money is. Anyone else finding good inventory in their area right now or is it tightening up where you are?
been rolling an NVDA put for 3 weeks now. each roll gets a small credit but the time value is mostly gone and i'm basically just renting time at this point.
did the math this week: rolling for another month gets me roughly the same credit as starting the CC cycle immediately after taking assignment. so the break-even on continued rolling vs taking shares is basically at parity, except rolling still has the downside risk of the stock dropping further.
took the shares. running 30 delta CCs at 3 weeks out. if it gets called away, it gets called away. the wheel keeps turning.
Watching oil and the 10yr climb together while the broader market just kind of shrugs has me thinking. Historically that combination has been a headwind for equities -- higher energy costs compress margins, higher yields compress multiples. But the market seems to be treating this as fine. My read is either the market is pricing in a soft landing where oil demand rising is actually a SIGN of healthy global growth, or we're in late cycle where everyone knows a correction is coming but nobody wants to be first out. Curious what others are seeing -- are energy names starting to look interesting as a hedge here, or is oil at these levels already priced in for most energy stocks?
not trying to be bearish just for the sake of it, but the math feels a bit off right now. real yields near cycle highs, equities still stretched on a forward earnings basis, and the risk-free rate is actually competitive in a way it hasn't been in years. i get that "time in market" beats timing the market most of the time, but usually when the equity risk premium compresses this much there's at least a case for rotating some allocation toward shorter duration or just sitting on cash waiting for a better entry. curious how others are thinking about new money deployment in this environment.
watching the Iran situation play out this past week has been fascinating from a market perspective. equities dumped hard on the initial conflict news, then ripped right back to ATH within days even as oil stayed elevated and 10yr yields climbed. every geopolitical event seems to follow the same pattern now - short sharp selloff, immediate recovery, then basically no lasting impact on price. makes me wonder if the "buy the dip on geopolitical fear" trade is fully played out and priced in at this point, or if there's actually a scenario where it doesn't mean-revert. curious how others are thinking about this