u/Faris_110

Hi everyone, I'm trying to understand the medium-term supply/demand outlook for crude oil prices once the current geopolitical tensions in Middle East ease and it's eventual effect on Global GDP numbers.

Right now, it seems a large portion of the oil rally is being driven by geopolitical risk premium, especially around the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply concerns. Brent is currently trading above $100.

But assuming: ceasefire eventually holds and global growth remains moderate, Where do you think crude prices settle over the next 6-12 months?

Some interesting forecasts I found:-

The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: Brent could fall below $90 by late 2026 if supply disruptions ease, while averaging around $76 in 2027.

J.P. Morgan Global Research has a more bearish longer-term outlook and expects Brent to average around $60 in 2026 due to soft supply-demand fundamentals and abundant supply growth.

Goldman Sachs commodity outlook still sees elevated prices if geopolitical risks persist, with Brent around the low $80s under their base case.

At the same time, there are bearish arguments: weaker China demand, EV adoption, non-OPEC supply growth.

But bullish arguments remain: underinvestment in upstream, OPEC discipline, geopolitical fragmentation, inflationary commodity cycles, delayed restoration of existing oil production facilities in the Middle East.

Curious what you guyz think: Once the war premium fades, does Brent realistically return to the $60 - 70 range? Or are we entering a structurally higher oil-price era due to geopolitics and deglobalization?

GDP Growth Impact: Given that high oil prices and supply disruptions currently acting as a drag on the global economy with Fitch warning that sustained $100 oil could shave 0.4% to 0.8% off global GDP. How does the eventual demand destruction from these high prices affect the valuation baseline?

Would love to hear views from people following physical markets, tanker flows, OPEC policy or into macro research.

I want to know if anything has actually changed in the industry lately or it’s still the same cycle of overwork.

Also, what’s the deal with "protected weekends"? Are you still expected to be available during weekends and holidays?

Curious if the culture is still as toxic as it used to be.

What’s it actually like in the trenches right now?

Given the deeply sincere and trusting nature of a character like Myshkin from Dostoevsky’s "The Idiot", What advice would you offer him if he were to live in a modern society where manipulation, self-interest and moral compromise are common social behaviors?

How could someone with his level of innocence, empathy and moral purity navigate such an environment without being repeatedly exploited or emotionally harmed?

What advice would you offer to a person like Myshkin to remain compassionate and authentic while also develop the necessary boundaries, discernment and emotional resilience needed to avoid the kind of tragic downfall he ultimately experiences in the novel?

Practical, real life, implementable/actionable advice.

Every Leap of Faith I’ve Taken has Ended in Betrayal.

Whenever I’ve taken a “leap of faith” in my life, it has led me straight into a ditch.

I trusted people because I believed sincerity would be met with sincerity. I gave others the benefit of the doubt, convinced myself that honesty, vulnerability & goodwill still meant something and would be reciprocated positively. I ignored hesitation and took the jump anyway believing the outcome would somehow justify the risk.

Instead, I was betrayed.

Not once or twice, but enough times that the pattern feels impossible to ignore. And what makes it worse is not just the betrayal itself, but the aftermath: The emotional exhaustion, the time lost, the resources spent trying to recover and rebuild myself after every fall.

Kierkegaard speaks about the leap of faith as something necessary, a movement beyond rational certainty - Transcendence.

How do you continue to leap after repeated experiences of being burned?

How to resolve the heavy feeling of resentment and skepticism while going forward?

Has your own “leap of faith” ever led somewhere meaningful or has it mostly been suffering dressed up as hope?

I’d genuinely like to hear how others here interpret this idea through their own experiences.

Integrating the “shadow,” which can include very aggressive parts of the psyche, the “beast,” so to speak.

For those who’ve worked through this:

What was the reason or cause which led you to take up this incredible journey? Did you face a loss or felt stuck in life or something else?

When you were going through it, did your old vices get stronger before they got weaker?

Did you end up indulging in old vices more while going through it? If yes, how bad did it get and how did you pull yourself out of it?

What helped you transform that energy into something functional in daily life?

I’m want to know, how integration actually looks in practice, not just theory.

I’ve been trying to understand Kant’s philosophy, especially two core ideas:

1. The distinction between phenomena (things as we experience them) and noumena (things as they are in themselves) and

2. His concept of duty and the moral law (acting according to the categorical imperative).

Is our sense of duty something grounded in the noumenal realm (like freedom or rational will) or is it still part of our phenomenal experience?

Please forgive me if this question sounds naive. I’m still learning and trying to make sense of these ideas.