Polymarket markets resolve through UMA token votes.
http://uma.rocks is the largest UMA voter. http://uma.rocks is a group of Polymarket traders with positions in the markets they vote on.
What just happened:
Clavicular claimed he got a girl pregnant 10 days after meeting her. Polymarket had a market on it. Resolution required a credible claim. He made the claim between bits on a podcast. No test. No doctor. No reporting. 10 days is biologically too early for a confirmed pregnancy test.
Scout is a key http://uma.rocks member. Scout wrote in the dispute discord that resolving YES "rewards exactly the kind of non-credible claim the rules were written to exclude." Scout was also one of the largest YES holders in the market.
Scout then pushed http://uma.rocks to vote YES.
The vote by individual users: 70% Too Early, 30% YES. The vote by token weight: 33% Too Early, 67% YES.
67% won. Largest discrepancy between individual voters and token weight in UMA history according to other voters in the discord.
The person who posted first in the evidence rationale for http://uma.rocks is banned from Polymarket for spoofing.
The price chart is attached. You can see the market move at each moment a http://uma.rocks member posted their vote direction. Voters were following a price signal set by the same people casting the deciding votes.
Scout was removed from http://uma.rocks after this. The structure that allowed it is still there.
