
By May 4, the city had shed 40% of the cumulative lease volume registered just three months earlier in February 2026. The ratio of new leases to expirations has reverted to levels last seen in August and September 2023.
From March 1 through May 4, more leases expired than were newly executed. The net outflow stands at 60,499 contracts. A year earlier, during the same window of 2025, Dubai had registered a net surplus of 19,798 contracts.
This update builds on observations made in March. The outflow of tenants has intensified. The move in end-user behaviour toward departure remains the dominant trend.
I tracked the difference between new contracts, renewals, and expirations using data from the Dubai Land Department and Dubai Pulse, with 2022 as a baseline, the year international demand entered the emirate at volume.
Data: Dubai Land Department (DLD), Dubai Pulse (pre-downloaded 2025 dataset). Active-contract methodology: contracts with end dates falling after the relevant quarter’s close.