hey all,
I just finished a program and am looking for any recommendations to go along with a bulk. I've done House of Volume/2 and I liked them, but I feel like the leg workouts put me close to a cardiac moment lol. I'll likely go back to one of them anyways, but does anyone else have any programs they swear by? thanks!
Hey everyone,
I wanted to give everyone an update on model revisions (basically adding in some more layers and regressing them to stress test the optimal build)-- for the first post a few weeks back, I was at 89.7% accuracy predicting buy low/sell high off early-season performance in a meaningful way (using 2025 as a testing ground after building off previous years' data (not including 2025)). Now, the model is at 91.4% accuracy -- and this might be where I stop the refinements. I'm happy with the accuracy where it stands, and it became incredibly muddy trying to squeak out any more points of accuracy without messing up other areas. Plus, early baseball is hard enough to separate randomness and true predictors lol -- if you want more detail on the model, I wrote about it here. I also have a whitepaper on github which I'm going to update with my latest revisions and re-publish if someone really wants to nerd out.
Lastly, before I get into the buy low/sell highs, while building luck signals was fun, my absolute favorite thing to do in all of fantasy sports is trade. However, current trade tools can be a little difficult to use when it comes to customizing leagues/scoring settings/etc. So, I've been working on one for a while now that gives you that customization, and am in a position to get some folks to test it if they are interested.
It runs similar to a Rest-of-season projections tool, but the luck signals do play a little bit of a role in the projections, but it will also look to factor net value for both sides to help with trade analysis. As of now, it's manual trades only, but as I investigate some APIs, I'm looking to open up league imports as well to really do roster fit analysis (particularly for roto trade)
What I'm looking for: Competitive league players (12+ teams, preferably CBS or Fantrax) willing to:
As I continue to make edits to the tool, you'll get access to those as well. Right now it's focused on redraft, but -- probably a pipedream -- I want to eventually factor in dynasty/salary leagues (mainly out of selfish use since those are the leagues I'm in lol)
Okay, if you haven't left yet lol, here are the buy low/sell highs for this week
(check out previous weeks for different calls as I try not to repeat players, but some notable calls from earlier in the season -- Buy Lows, Vinnie P, Trent Grisham, Cristopher Sanchez Jesus Luzardo...Sell high Matt Chapman, Shota Imanaga, Chris Sale, Gavin Williams)
**Week 4 Buy Low / Sell High (**I do a weekly Substack and will add a couple more players and insights there as well)--current CBS rank will be next to each player. Lastly, on my substack page, I'll post a google sheet of everyone's luck scores with a basic stat to support it. It doesn't get too in the weeds, but should give a good directional view.
Buy Low/performance improvement likely-
Manny Machado (Rank 203) - So, going into the season, I was skeptical about Machado purely from an age perspective--elite players tend to gracefully decline in their careers once they pass their prime, but I thought there were more profitable options later in the draft/auction to target. With that, I will say that the one thing I'm concerned about with his bounce-back is his barrel rate. The other metrics are suggesting a strong return (BABIP vs. career, xwOBA vs. wOBA, etc.), but the barrel rate is down almost 50% vs. previous years. This is one of those, if that comes back, then I think he stands a solid chance of returning great value when the other metrics normalize. However, could it be some age-related decline? Maybe...however I would say even if that is the case and his barrel rate doesn't get back to his baseline, he should still have some positive regression in his favor that you might be able to buy at a discount.
Vinnie Pasquantino (Rank 277) - he's actually improved a fair amount from the original call made a few weeks back. However, I wanted to repeat him here only because he hasn't fully climbed out of the cellar and is still showing room to improve. His BABIP is at .216 and he's still showing a decent xwOBA vs. woBA gap. I think the window is closing since I wrote about him the first time at rank 672 lol, but I think there's still an opportunity to grab at a discount.
Cade Smith (Rank 109) - This guy is a beast. And honestly, his overall rank isn't all that bad. This reference is less about trying to buy low (I don't think you'll find current owners interested in moving him at a discount) and more about showing that there's a pretty hefty imbalance that should normalize fairly quickly. His ERA is at 3.44, but his xERA is under 3, and his FIP is under 2.
Sell High/Potential performance dip -
Randy Arozarena (Rank 65) - His BABIP is .362 right now when he normally hovers around league average. He also has a negative xwOBA gap and is barreling under 6% of the time. While his barrel might revert a little bit, I think there's some BABIP regression bound to happen, and he'll get fewer opportunities to pick up some extra SBs. I'd look to ship him off while he's in the top 10 OF tier.
Riley Greene (Rank 71) - .447 BABIP--moving on lol. Seriously though, this one is pretty interesting. He's showing good contact quality metrics and I think he's definitely a valuable player, but that extreme BABIP just not sustainable. He has a negative xwOBA gap as well (although he's close to .400 on wOBA). Maybe this is less of a sell, but more of a, don't be surprised if/when he regresses a little bit.
Technically a sell opportunity, but..
Bryce Elder (Rank 18) - His xERA and FIP are suggesting regression...to 3 lol. That's not bad at all especially given how you likely acquired him this year. However, the concerns...his LOB is over 10% higher than his baseline and he's running a .230 BABIP which is bound to regress. I think savvy owners remember him from previous years and won't be too eager to pay near his current value, and again, if he ends up being a 3's ERA pitcher on an amazing team, I'll take that especially when you consider the cost. However, if you can sell at peak value, you should be able to make a monster profit.
If you want to see more, check out my Substack here: https://thesignalfantasy.substack.com/
Thanks!
Dustin