u/DevuSM

▲ 70 r/oil

I think what is driving and underlying their decision making is that ultimately, they need to inflict resonant pain on the world economy. They need oil prices to hit record highs for sustained periods, cripple the oil production of anyone within strike range who supports their enemies, and ensure no one is ever willing to go down this path ever again.

They were attacked in the middle of negotiations, sucker punched, had their leadership decapitated, and their existence threatened.

After being pushed past all geopolitical redlines, if they don't inflict a long term restriction of trade through Hormuz, they demonstrate that they have no teeth. That their threats cannot be taken seriously.

I don't know how long this will have to continue for Iran to be satisfied and what their internal pain thresholds are regarding retaliation, but the stakes are the survival of the regime, nation, and possibly the lives of a significant proportion of their population.

Please tell me if there are some important circumstances I am not taking into account.

reddit.com
u/DevuSM — 15 days ago