

It's no secret that betting markets tend to be a very accurate indicator of political trends— after all, it's not just a poll. There's money on the line for how folks THINK the election will go, no matter who you support. They predicted Trump while the polls favored Harris. They predicted IL-09. They predicted the New York Mayoral race.
Polymarket has:
Bob Brooks in 1st place at 88%
Ryan Crosswell in 2nd at 7%.
Lamont McClure in 3rd at 2.6%
Carol Obando Derstine in 4th at 1.7%
And Kalshi has:
Bob Brooks in 1st at 88%
Ryan Crosswell in 2nd at 14%
Carol Obando-Derstine in 3rd at 3%
Lamont McClure in 4th at 2.4%
I obviously think it'll be a lot closer than those margins, but it seems pretty consistent when factoring in polls, fundraising spread and anecdotal experience. What do you think?