Fans are likely to spend about 480 million+ black flag resynced over the next 2 years
(estimate im not god I just track the presales I can be wrong especially so far out it is what it is an early prediction )
In perspective you can almost buy the entire company for that price (in theory)
If every person that bought black flag original or is expected to buy black flag resynced also spent 60$ on Ubisoft shares we’d own the whole company
(In reality we’d blow the spread and turn this into a pump in dump not what I’m proposing)
This is not a pump and dump idea
I’m talking about a real coalition of people (with disposable income) who believe in the asymmetric possibility of a Ubisoft comeback in comparison to what the market prices it at
Please also I’d like to note the real financials
-1 billion operating loss expected on there earning call may 20th
-the 3rd worse reputation in gaming (slowly improving lol)
-25% of assasins creed far cry and Tom Clancy rainbow 6 Seige is owned by tencent in exchange of 1.16 billion this was announce late last year to have gone through i beleive
Bonds trade at 12.6% yield for maturity in 17 months a coupon of 0.875% mathematically this mean the market of debt was pricing in roughly 82% they pay it smoothly and ownership goes un disturbed however that means it priced 14% dilution and 4% default shareholder pay for this and you would lose money
However since black flag was revealed that risk is down and it is the base case for things to go normal
If there’s others like me that feel able to research and take the risk and beleives in the assymetric potential and likelihood of a Ubisoft comeback I’d love to hear it i believe in there IP when I bought and felt Jean guesdon was the change needed if there’s other that agree (obviously the exact fundamentals are specific please I encourage independently researching and coming to a conclusion)
Now the real part the investor premium for a 5% fan owned company 5% is the legal threshold in Europe to put requests and have a real voice at the table this part is long and I’d love to add if there’s anyone interested there’s a very solid case of why the modern market would pay a premium to be involved in a company partly owned by fans
Anyway I’ll buying shares just wanted to see if anyone with disposable money believes in the
Comeback also some fun math
To get to 5% 1000 fans would need to spend 30,000 each
2500 fans = 13,800 each
5000 fans = 6900 each
10,000 fans = 3400 each
20,000 fans (I think this is a sweet spot) = 1700 each
(please don’t spend your rent money on this)