u/Bulky-Guava1529

Been building an AI advisor that tracks its own accuracy. Here's this week:

• 105 markets resolved, got 74 right
• Running accuracy: 74%

Building this into a Chrome extension. Here's the track record: [Track Record screenshot]

This week's featured market analysis: 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion — Colorado Avalanche @ 30¢

• $13.9M daily volume
• Presidents' Trophy winners, top playoff seed
• 4 whales backing, $195.7k total volume, avg entry $0.14

https://preview.redd.it/ndxebpzuybyg1.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=55fba959c8ddb392bd6d42f770706c68bb51697c

https://preview.redd.it/d061ebvyybyg1.png?width=411&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8e826984f47045310997b735e378a0375b3a0c2

So I've been nerding out on this side project — built an AI advisor that tracks its own predictions on Polymarket. Here's how week 1 went:

The stats

• 101 markets finished, got 71 right
• Best performer: the "Risk Manager" model at 92% — basically just flags when something's underpriced vs the odds
• Worst: "Portfolio Manager" at 57% — got a bit too confident on some macro calls
• Overall accuracy: 71%

What's interesting

The Risk Manager is crushing it because it's boring — it only bets when the gap between what the model thinks and what the market thinks is huge. Conservative but it works.

The Portfolio Manager... yeah, overshot. Tried to catch some moves that reversed hard. Classic case of overfitting to recent trends I think.

The setup

Chrome extension that sits on Polymarket, shows live predictions from three different models, updates the track record as stuff resolves. Kinda like having three opinionated friends whispering in your ear.

Here's what the dashboard looks like:

https://preview.redd.it/1u6mysjhw4xg1.png?width=411&format=png&auto=webp&s=93088e4db0205da85a324f7f25b21a0f93409176

Anyone else building prediction tools? Curious how you're handling the macro stuff — feels like those markets move on vibes more than data lately.