u/Always__Auctions

In my previous post, I looked into how WR targets per game have been steadily declining since 2020, while RB opportunities have gone up. I laid out my reasons why I believe a hero WR/robust RB build is the optimal route for fantasy managers heading into 2026, and what the approach should be for auction drafters. Please take a look at the post below:

2026 Auctions: The Case for Hero WR

Similarly to WR, I also wanted to see if TE targets per game have taken a similar downturn. Since 2020, this is the average targets per game for the top 12 TEs:

2020 - 6.9

2021 - 7.0

2022 - 6.5

2023 - 6.8

2024 - 7.1

2025 - 7.0

Here is the data graphed:

https://preview.redd.it/s0hv3xly9czg1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca6bc8bef761a623c83465719c4e9f5d0b5f85f0

As you can see, targets per game for TEs have remained remarkably consistent, with only 2022 as an anomalous year. Interestingly, the downward trend of targets per game for WRs has not seemed to affect TEs.

While WR is becoming thinner at the top and RB volume is increasing, TE is moving in the opposite direction: toward depth and replaceability.

All of this has led to more usable TEs, and from an auction standpoint, this matters.

I usually recommend waiting until late to draft a TE, since it's one of the easiest positions to replace without needing to allocate much from your draft budget. The position has gotten deeper, and the gap between mid-tier options continues to shrink.

For example, here are the differences in FPTS/G between TE6 and TE12 over the past three years:

2023 - 2.6

2024 - 2.7

2025 - 1.5

Here is the data visualized:

https://preview.redd.it/b6razma1aczg1.png?width=573&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e4e6496359c280897610d156ca8e52b8982c2dc

As I wrote in my "Case for Hero WR" post, there has been a marked shift in the NFL, with defenses transitioning to a heavy zone scheme. Additionally, we just saw the highest number of TEs drafted since 2002! Not only are teams running more zone, it appears they are attempting to copy the success many teams had in 12 personnel, by playing in more 2TE sets.

TE is not where you gain your biggest advantage, but it’s very easy to lose value by allocating too much budget there.

That’s why waiting on TE fits nicely into the hero WR build: spend up where scarcity exists, and save where replacement value is high.

Thanks for following along!

Back in February, I looked at several past seasons to analyze trends in WR targets. The main takeaway: WR targets have been declining overall, while running back touches have remained relatively steady over that same span.

To get a clearer picture, I dug deeper into targets and touches per game for the top 20 WRs and RBs from 2020–2025. This helps control for injuries and missed games, giving a more accurate comparison.

With that in mind, let’s break down what this means and identify the best options heading into the 2026 fantasy football and auction season.

Starting with the top 20 WRs (minimum 8 games played) from 2020–2025, here’s how their targets per game have trended:

2020 – 8.6
2021 – 9.0
2022 – 9.3
2023 – 9.1
2024 – 8.8
2025 – 8.0  

Here is the same data, looking at touches per game for the top 20 RBs:

2020 - 19.1

2021 - 19.2

2022 - 18.8

2023 - 18.4

2024 - 19.2

2025 - 18.8

Total Change (2020–2025):

WR Targets per Game: Started at 8.6 and ended at 8.0, an overall decrease of 0.6 (-7.0%), continuing a downward trend since peaking in 2022. RB Touches per Game: Started at 19.1 and ended at 18.8, a minimal change of -0.3 (-1.6%), indicating relative stability over the same period.

Essentially, WR volume is trending down. RB volume is holding steady.

Here is the data visually graphed:

https://preview.redd.it/oo00s8q2brxg1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9f500610b01152de6576ed96a73f22bf91eb863

To me, the most striking conclusion is that a top 20 RB gets around 2x the volume.

Here are a few of my takeaways for the 2026 auction draft season:

The Case for "Hero WR" Strategy

Finding a WR who gets 10+ targets a game is becoming harder.

Buy one "Alpha" WR (like Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua) who consistently defies this downward trend. They are worth the high auction price because they are outliers in a league that is trending toward more distributed passing attacks.

The "Workhorse" RB is a dying, but stable breed

While WR targets have been volatile, RB touches have remained extremely stable, staying within a narrow range (19.0 to 19.9).

Don't spend on mid-tier WRs if a 17 to 20-touch RB is still on the board. The volume gap is simply too wide to ignore for consistent weekly scoring.

How to approach this in 2026 1QB and Superflex auction leagues:

1QB Auction Strategy ($200 budget)

The Strategy: Spend 80% ($160) on three pillars: two elite RBs and one alpha WR. This exploits the "value cliff" by cornering the market on guaranteed weekly touches.

• Robust RB ($100–$110): Lock in two tier-1 workhorses (e.g., Bijan + JT). By taking two, you force the rest of the league into low-floor committee backs.
• The Alpha WR ($50–$60): Secure one target-monster (e.g., Ja’Marr Chase).
• Punt QB and TE. Target cheap, high-upside players and fill your bench with RB handcuffs.

Superflex Auction Strategy ($200 budget)

The Strategy: Spend 75% ($150) on a "Core Four": two elite RBs, one alpha WR, and a tier-2 QB. You maintain a massive RB advantage while others overpay for dual-threat QBs.

• Robust RB ($85–$95): Snag two elite volume RBs (e.g., Gibbs + Jeanty). QB-heavy rooms might let RB prices slightly slide.
• The QB1 Anchor ($30–$35): Avoid the $60+ superstars. Buy a less expensive, reliable pocket passer like Burrow or Prescott.
• The WR Alpha ($45–$50): Grab one tier-1 WR (e.g., Puka Nacua) to carry your receiving corps.
• The S-Flex Punt ($1–$5): Fill your second QB slot with a cheap starter (e.g., Ward, Young, or Cousins).

Thank you so much for following along.