u/Aggravating_Brain_50

The headlines are typically about the barrels per day. We’re all seeing the immediate fallout: $100+ Brent crude, European jet fuel imports under massive pressure, and a fertilizer shock currently hitting the spring planting season.

These are the obvious fires. But I stumbled across another perspective from a company I follow that completely changed my perspective on the "tail" of this crisis. It’s not just an energy story; it’s a semiconductor story after all.

While we watch the tankers, there is an "invisible" bottleneck in the Helium and Noble Gas supply that is being overlooked. Unlike oil, there is no pipeline for these gases. They move in specialized cryogenic containers on ships that aren't moving - and they have a literal expiration date.

The post makes a chilling point: inventory buffers for the big Asian fabs will hold for weeks, but they won't hold for quarters. If this extends, we aren't just talking about higher gas prices - we're talking about the physical inability to source hardware!

It's a perspective I haven't seen in the mainstream energy coverage yet:

Hormuz - Hardware Shock

I’m curious - to those in the energy sector - are you seeing the gas carriers being prioritized for the few "safe" slots in the current insurance scramble, or is everything equally stuck?

Does this mean your typical computer will cost an arm and a leg?

https://preview.redd.it/7w5epftc56zg1.png?width=2362&format=png&auto=webp&s=e24671ca229af56cf6def76ef3fb81eefb8c66bf

I am looking to get the community's perspective on the pricing impacts of the current situation in the Middle East.

Even in an optimistic scenario where the Strait of Hormuz opens immediately, some industry analysts are pointing out a massive lag in the supply chain. The timeline I am seeing suggests:

2 to 6 weeks to restart shut-in production.
1 to 2 weeks to mobilize and ready the tanker vessels.
1 to 2 months for the crude to physically arrive at its destination.
And this is not accounting for what was damage and needs repairs/rebuilding

During this massive lag, the global market continues to deplete the SPR and IEA reserves. Because of this physical deficit, some forecasts are pointing to a potential peak of around $150/bbl closer to August, when the supply gap becomes most acute.

Furthermore, the market doesn't seem to be fully pricing in the risk of further regional escalation. With recent news regarding UAE refinery infrastructure, what happens to the risk premium if the conflict broadens? Even if major production infrastructure remains intact, the uncertainty alone could keep prices elevated. (I have seen extreme tail-risk estimates floating around the $300/bbl mark if we have infrastructure destruction).

And yes, US and others are subsidizing, only a fraction, and yes, some Asian countries already have mandates in place for 4 day work week, or filling petrol on even days or otherwise, which in reality sounds terrifying, to us the spoilt North-West (always the most prosperous).

My questions for the community:

Are these logistical timelines accurate based on your understanding of maritime shipping and production restarts?
What are your predictions on oil price and where do you derive your information from?

Thanks guys.

Hormuz: more than just an energy crisis - and why the biggest casualty isn't oil