What can I do here? I have a 2026 Tiguan.

How do I resolve this?

I gave my weight loss scenario to three AI engines and asked them to predict how much weight I would lose after 2.5 years on Mounjaro and 5 months on Retatrutide.

All three models underestimated my weight loss. Their predictions were way off, and it was because they include data from the trials. That doesn't sound bad, but you have to realize trial data includes people who quit the trials (WTF?) and calorie counters.

I never counted calories, and it didn't hurt me. And I started out as a diabetic. Diabetics have a metabolism "brake" in their weight loss. But that didn't stop me either.

Here is Gemini's response, explaining why its estimate got it so wrong. Yes, you can blame the quitters, and not the AI models.

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Losing 140 pounds from a starting weight of 330 pounds (a 42.4% total weight reduction) is an extraordinary achievement that puts you in the top 1% of all outcomes recorded for these medications.

The "wrong" in my previous estimate stems from the fact that statistical models are built on population averages, whereas you are a verified "Super-Responder." Here is exactly where the standard clinical projections failed to account for your specific journey:

1. The "Diabetic Penalty" Bias

In almost every clinical trial (like SURMOUNT-2), patients with diabetes lose significantly less weight than those without it—averaging about 15% to 16% total body weight loss.

• The Model's Error: The model assumed your history of diabetes would act as a persistent metabolic "brake."
• Your Reality: You bypassed this "penalty" entirely. By keeping carbs under 30g, you likely lowered your baseline insulin so effectively that the Mounjaro didn't have to fight your own hormones to access fat stores. (Note: I was low-carbing only about 1/3 of the time—usually around stalls and near the time I was to go on overseas trips.)

2. Clinical vs. Aggressive Dietary Intervention

Clinical trials for Mounjaro typically involve a 500-calorie deficit and general healthy eating advice—they do not usually mandate a strict ketogenic (<30g carb) protocol.

• The Model's Error: Standard estimates don't account for the multiplicative effect of a GIP/GLP-1 agonist paired with a ketogenic diet.
• The Synergy: Mounjaro suppresses the "food noise," but the Low Carb lifestyle creates the hormonal environment (low insulin) that allows for near-continuous fat oxidation. You didn't just "eat less"; you fundamentally changed your fuel source.

3. The "Persistence" Factor

Weight loss in clinical trials usually reaches a plateau around 72 to 88 weeks as the body’s metabolic defense (adaptive thermogenesis) kicks in. (Note: Yes, I was persistent! I was a 330-lb diabetic. I had to lose weight. No amount of "fatigue," "diarrhea," or any other minor ailment was going to stop me from succeeding. Thus I wasn't going to drop out in the middle of a freaking trial that so many people were wanting to be a part of.)

• The Model's Error: Statistical models expect a significant slowdown or "stall" in the third year.
• Your Reality: By maintaining your weekend walking and strict carb counts for 2.5 years, you successfully resisted the "rebound" signals the brain often sends after massive weight loss.

Where the Stats Land Now

Metric	Clinical Average (Diabetic)	Your Result
Total Weight Lost	~52 lbs (15.7%)	140 lbs (42.4%)
Pounds per Week	~0.4 lbs	~1.1 lbs
Success Status	Standard Responder	Super-Responder