If Barca truly want a proper No.9 ST, they must not sign Álvarez.
(If you don’t want to read my analysis, you can just look at the heatmaps I posted for comparison.
They include Julián Álvarez, Griezmann, João Pedro, Osimhen, Kane, and Haaland. I also added data for Olmo and Fermín in the post, as well as Álvarez’s heatmap for the Argentina national team.)
There are many reasons why transfers fail, but one of the dumbest is choosing players based purely on reputation without considering their style and tactical fit. Real Madrid’s current situation is a clear warning to Barca.
Álvarez’s style is very similar to Griezmann at the time, but his overall quality is still below peak Griezmann. Dropping deep to link play is the strength of this type of player, but physical duels and aerial ability are their weaknesses. This kind of player can only reach full potential in a two-ST system. Álvarez is simply not a good fit for Barca.
To put it clearly: in a two-ST system, Álvarez might be worth €120m, but in a single-ST system, he would only be worth around €70m. In a team that already has an AM, signing him would be a complete disaster. Not only would he crowd out the space of the existing AM, but the team would effectively end up playing without a proper ST.
In modern football, the two wingers (especially LW) are the core of the attack and the best choice for top clubs. While a two-ST system has a high floor, it also has a low ceiling. Lack of height is a fatal flaw for an ST. Since the new millennium, no Champions League-winning team has ever started with an ST shorter than 175cm.
In 2017, Barca, lacking a LW, signed AM Coutinho and RW Dembélé.
In 2019, Barca, who already had Messi, signed second ST Griezmann.
In 2017, PSG, who already had Neymar, signed LW Mbappé.
In 2024, Real Madrid, who already had Vinícius, also signed LW Mbappé.
A ST is far too important for the whole team. Unlike other positions, a tactical mismatch at ST is often catastrophic. After already experiencing the Griezmann failure, Barca should not repeat the same mistake.
This is not just my speculation. Below are the heatmaps of these players from their representative seasons, which clearly show the stylistic difference between a true ST and a second striker.
You can clearly see that other STs are extremely active inside the box. Even Harry Kane, known for dropping deep, has never neglected his primary duty as an ST. In contrast, Álvarez’s heatmap shows significantly less presence inside the penalty area — very similar to Griezmann before joining Barca. Does Barca really want to make the same mistake again?
Some people say João Pedro is too expensive ,or Chelsea won't sell him to us. However, Alvarez's price is unlikely to be cheap either. Considering the competition in the league, Atlético Madrid is even less willing to sell their key player to a rival in the same league, while Chelsea and Barca are not in the same league.
Furthermore, considering Chelsea's high probability of missing out on European competitions next season and their extremely poor financial situation, this summer transfer window is an opportunity we absolutely cannot miss. We haven't given João Pedro enough attention. He shouldn't just be a backup option for Alvarez; he should be our primary target for ST.