r/tornado

I’m not sure which is scarier, the tornado or the fact that the man left his wife alone to film.
🔥 Hot ▲ 170 r/tornado

I’m not sure which is scarier, the tornado or the fact that the man left his wife alone to film.

Regardless, this was my first real tornado video. It’s been around long enough for everyone to see but everything about it evokes even the rarest of emotions; for me anyway.

youtu.be
u/ygbsm1972 — 7 hours ago
🔥 Hot ▲ 638 r/tornado

Didsbury, Alberta EF-4 (1/07/2023

the Didsbury EF-4 was a massive 1.6 kilometer (1 mile) wide tornado that struck didsbury, Albert Canada on the the 1st of june 2023.

the massive twister picked up metric tons of dirt, which gave the tornado the otherworldly appearance in this post (didsbury EF-4)

the nearly 2 kilometer wide beast reached windspeeds of nearly 280 kilometers per hour and had a track length of nearly 15.5 kilometers.

during its time on the ground, it massively varied in size. from nearly 700 meters upto 1.6 kilometers at its peak (see link above).

the tornado hit numerous houses and flattened them. with at least 4-5 left uninhabitable.

sources of information:

Western university/NTP: didsbury

u/nationalistic_martyr — 23 hours ago
🔥 Hot ▲ 275 r/tornado

YouTube comment sections on tornadoes are hellbent on repeating this line of advice over and over instead of discussing what to do next 💀

u/ForsakenDependent562 — 17 hours ago
🔥 Hot ▲ 139 r/tornado

The Hackleburg-Phil Campbell tornado was likely a low end EF-4 based on these contextual damage indicators.

How 85% of the damage survey discussions feel.

u/Capital-Coast5793 — 16 hours ago
🔥 Hot ▲ 122 r/tornado

Is there a possibility this is a waterspout/tornado?

Yesterday, while talking with my friend on his balcony, I noticed this over the sea and took pictures of it. Is there any chance that it's a waterspout or a tornado? "picture is taken from Aydin/Kusadasi, Turkey."

u/nar_lyset_tar_oss — 19 hours ago
▲ 20 r/tornado

Whats the scariest tornado stories you heard in your past or current town?

like whats the most significant tornado story that actually happened in your town

For me, the plainfield 1990 tornado was probably the scariest tornado story I have ever heard to happen at all the towns I lived in

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u/Happy_Individual8388 — 6 hours ago
🔥 Hot ▲ 120 r/tornado

Hot take: Enderlin was more photogenic than Wellfleet

Wellfleet was cool and all but man Enderlin just had an amazing structure. If this occurred during the day it would have been on par with Capitol

u/NiceUnderstanding907 — 23 hours ago
▲ 37 r/tornado

chicago when they're dodging most of the tornado outbreaks this year

let's go lake michigan

u/Ok_Station8782 — 15 hours ago
▲ 36 r/tornado

Is this scud or something?

This video was taken Thursday April 2nd I was east of Davenport

u/That_Loquat_6528 — 16 hours ago
▲ 10 r/tornado

Basic analogy explaining why models "bust" and fail (especially in 5-6 days in advance)

So i have seen some comments, and i have done a mistake when i was new to models (and probably you were or are doing that mistake), of seeing what models says and "parroting" it as true, as if is going to 100% happen, and i want beginners that are learning about those models to understand why this is a bad idea, as i would wish i didn't expend THAT much time into "stalking" and seeing what models say, instead of trying to understand why the models predict and do forecast for.

Analogy:
Imagine seeing a flashlight (let's say, for the sake of simplicity, a storm system) for the first time, you observe that there is a ON button and that makes the flashlight, well, flash a light (produce a thunderstorm, for example), you press it, and indeed, you observe that it produces light (thunderstorm).

Now imagine that exact same scenario, but with already knowing this information, what your brain (model) will tell you is that when you press ON, it will flash a light, which makes total sense, but the brain (model) is making an assumption.

The thing is, to make a flashlight work (at least the flashlight i have), you need a battery (let's say it's CAPE, is basically the fuel of storms), but your brain (model) just makes the assumption that the battery is already there, as the brain has seen the exact same scenario and says "this will happen again", but what if the battery (CAPE) ISN'T there?, well, the flashlight (storm system) will fail to produce the light (thunderstorm), making it a fail prediction (bust).

But you can verify if the battery (CAPE) is REALLY there, by just observing inside the flashlight, and you can also observe other things that make the flashlight work as well!.

So let's fully translate that analogy into the real world:

Remember i said you can verify if a storm system has the right ingredients to produce thunderstorms or severe weather?, well, in 5 to 6 days, you can't really know the future events, you can't really fact-check if that storm system has the right ingredients to produce let's say tornadoes, as a lot of things can change, you can't really predict the future exactly how it is, sadly, you can only try to, and that is what models are for.

Models. especially far in the future, can only predict an specific area of which it can be possible to have the right ingredients for, let's say again for example, tornadoes, they can show you where it may happen, what you really need to do is to fact-check the model, ask ¿why is it predicting this?, and start from there.

Then you can do your own "forecast", and try to predict yourself, in that area in specific, if that could happen, you know what to look for, you know what are the ingredients that the models predict is going to be in a certain area, so you search for them, you do NOT only base out of what the models predict, as again, they can predict things that are not physically possible, and "busting out". But thankfully, the NWS does that for you and are mostly accurate as they are professionals dedicated to do exactly that, but they are humans too and can make mistakes as well.

There is obviously so much more into this, but i tried to explain it if i were explain it to myself when i discovered models, i'm obviously human, english is not my first language and i barely know much terms of meteorology, but what i know from experience is that models do tend to bust, and that they don't predict the future, and they don't tell the future.

If i said something incorrect, PLEASE correct me because if i'm wrong, and i teach people things like this (i would probably do that), it would be a nightmare for me, and also i want to learn about things i don't know, thanks and sorry in advance :)

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u/Tamulel — 8 hours ago
▲ 36 r/tornado

SPC Day 4-8 contains two 15% days (Mon 6 April)

...Saturday/Day 6... On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.

u/Key_Hedgehog1664 — 23 hours ago

Atualizações sobre o surto de 1959 e o próprio ano

Contrary to what was previously thought about the year 1959, there weren't 3 tornadoes with F4 intensity, but 5.

ARATIBA(RS)

The first devastating tornado of the year occurred on April 25th, when it struck the cities of Aratiba and Erechim. The tornado caused 10 fatalities and numerous injuries. Most of the houses hit by its most intense core were completely destroyed. One of the observed damages was a location where a roof with part of the ceiling of a house, along with a sturdy fence, were thrown into a field where the soil was completely excavated, and the trees in the region disappeared.

VERANÓPOLIS(RS)

The next devastating tornado occurred at the beginning of Brazil's possible 1959 super-outbreak on August 13, 1959, where it is estimated that between 100 and 140 tornadoes occurred during the 3 days of the event, with 29 confirmed tornadoes recorded. The second devastating tornado of this event was the Veranópolis tornado, which occurred at 9 PM. This tornado formed in São Brás, Veranópolis, and moved towards the rural area of the municipality, causing 12 fatalities and devastating damage. The tornado presented a damage distribution typical of a multi-vortex. Its wind area had F3 damage with some F4 damage points. The tornado had the shape of a large stovepipe. One of its most severe damages was where a masonry house of Italian construction was completely devastated to the ground. This type of construction uses... Heavy basalt blocks joined together with manure and water were lifted and hurled considerable distances at this house, leaving only the foundation behind. This was considered a low-end F4 tornado with some peaks of force approaching mid-end.

CANOINHAS (SC)

The next tornado to occur during the 1959 super outbreak was the Canoinhas tornado, which occurred at 10 PM on August 13th.

This tornado unfortunately resulted in the deaths of 18 people and numerous injuries. It decimated virtually all the houses in its path, causing consistent soil excavation along its entire route. The most insane damage from this tornado was the complete destruction of all structures in its path, leaving the foundations of houses bare and its path completely excavated with debris scattered far apart. The most insane damage from this tornado was the fact that it buried numerous remains of the very houses it destroyed, where the excavation of the soil was throwing earth on top of the rubble. One of the damages to animals was that the tornado caught a chicken and completely buried it, only to find it alive buried inside. The trees hit by this tornado were extremely resistant and some quite tall; these trees were broken in half or uprooted as the intense vortex peeled the bark. The tornado is considered an F4 High-end, with maximum winds close to 400 km/h. Due to the lack of destruction of more resistant structures, it is impossible to accurately estimate its strength. The tornado may have reached an intensity of F5, but according to reports, it resembled a typhoon, which would be a wedge tornado here, maintaining a force of F4 throughout its path.

PORTO UNIÃO, UNIÃO DA VITÓRIA(PR)(SC)

The next tornado formed one day after the last two, on August 14th, between 4 PM and 5 PM. It was a tornado that hit two states in Brazil, probably forming in União da Vitória in Santa Catarina and heading towards the border of Paraná, hitting part of the city of Porto União in Paraná.

This was the second deadliest tornado of the outbreak, taking the lives of 26 people, a tragedy for the city. There isn't much record of this tornado, but it is known that it caused intense soil excavation, exposing and uprooting the vegetation in the region. In the only photographic evidence I found, it's possible to see that the damage destroyed the soil so much that no grass remained. The reported damage to structures was also immense; practically all the houses in its path were pulverized, causing extreme damage. This tornado is considered a possible F4, but it's difficult to estimate its intensity without many records or reports of it.

PALMAS (PR)

This was the worst and most destructive tornado of the outbreak, causing the unfortunate tragedy of 42 deaths and 400 injuries. All structures hit by its most intense core were completely destroyed down to the foundation. It is estimated that its mortality rate within its most intense core or vortex was 66-70%, where for every 3 people hit by its core, only one survived, and sometimes not even that.

The damage to vegetation and soil was practically the same as that observed in Canoinhas, in some places even worse. Extremely well-built wooden houses, with anchoring models from other countries, were destroyed in less than 4 seconds. The wood used was extremely heavy and dense, with a density between 550-1000kg/m³, and incredibly, this debris was thrown kilometers away. The tornado was also moving extremely fast, with an estimated speed of over 100km/h. A 2-story structure belonging to the farm owner, with very strong anchoring and the best structure on the farm, was completely decimated down to the foundation, where the house was destroyed by the direct impact of the wind and not by a drop in pressure.

The Palmas tornado traveled a path of 36km, with an estimated lifespan of between 18 and 25 minutes. Its shape was peculiar, with a condensed funnel between 400 and 800 meters, but its wind area was quite large, with an estimated size between 1.2km and 2km. Looking at this tornado would be like seeing a rotating dust wall with a large, dark funnel in the middle. The tornado maintained a medium to high F4 intensity at its most intense vortex, but as it approached the most resistant structure on the farm, it began to intensify rapidly, destroying a sawmill and throwing a 5-ton tractor like a projectile into a tree that was 48m away. When the tornado hit these areas, it is estimated to have reached the low-end F5 scale with winds between 420-435km/h.

Its wind path was also extremely chaotic, causing damage ranging from F1 to F2, and strangely, in some areas, F3 damage. It's possible the tornado also had multiple intense vortices larger than 120 meters, visually resembling the El Reno tornado of 2013.

This was the deadliest tornado in Brazilian history and also the deadliest outbreak. It is estimated that the 1959 outbreak caused more than 130 fatalities, approaching 200. The cost of this outbreak is estimated at around 5 billion reais, affecting more than 20,000 people, with at least 15,000 left homeless, making it one of the natural disasters that most affected people in Brazil, if not the most.

u/quasar-dead — 8 hours ago
▲ 21 r/tornado

Some shots of the tornadic cell near Stanford, IL on 4-3-26 including a suspicious rain shaft.

The first photo is the subject of discussion. I am pretty sure this was just an ominously shaped rain shaft because the tornado warning had expired a few minutes after I took this picture and no reports were made.

u/ShinjukuMasterScrub — 20 hours ago
▲ 10 r/tornado

Severe thunderstorms may be expected for the spots of the brown and yellow areas affected

Confirmed thunderstorms and a 70% Chance

u/Intrepid_Swimmer_320 — 15 hours ago

El Reno funnels

I know, I know. But, how many vortices were in the ER tor at its greatest number of vortices? is there a way to estimate it at least?

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u/headlessbill-1 — 7 hours ago

Something curious I noticed about the Lindsborg/Salina tornado of 1973

For tornado history buffs.

Remarkably, two films exist of the Sep. 25, 1973 tornado. First, at Lindsborg, where we see it as essentially a wedge, before quickly weakening to a stovepipe. The Salina film picks up essentially directly after the Lindsborg film ends, showing the tornado still as a stovepipe, but then it further weakens, and by the end of the clip as it exits Salina, we see the tornado apparently rope out. But then there's more footage, showing what may be the supercell recycling.

Which brings me to my observation. The official path for this F3 tornado is shown as being one unbroken line that proceeds all the way to Kansas' northern border. That's a further 80 miles beyond Salina, or over an entire hour on the ground.

Not possible.

It's hopefully obvious from the film footage we possess that there had to have been at least two tornadoes involved here, and they are being counted as one path. I would be more comfortable assuming there were three tornadoes, given that the rest of the path is twice the length of the distance prior to Salina, but either way, we can confidently say it was at least two.

The folks who chose to count the entire event as one path clearly did not have the benefit of this film evidence.

u/Fredasa — 24 hours ago
▲ 1 r/SupplyChainLogistics+1 crossposts

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u/MarkWKiehl — 20 hours ago
Week