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r/redwire

▲ 11 r/redwire

RDW -18% today...

Honestly, after that insane 15% run yesterday, today’s 18% drop for Redwire isn't a huge shocker, though it definitely stings if you bought the top. It looks like a textbook "sell the news" event.

​We had the hype from the $20M Marine Corps drone contract and that random Washington Commanders partnership, but once the stock hit $12, the profit-taking started in earnest. To make things worse, a Form 144 hit showing AE Red Holdings dumped almost a million shares right at the peak, which is never a great look for sentiment.

​With short interest still sitting around 25%, this thing is a total rollercoaster. We’re basically back to testing the $9.50-$10 support level. If you’re long, the fundamentals with the Space Force budget still look solid, but today is just a brutal reminder of how volatile this ticker is.

​Anyone else buying this dip or waiting for it to settle?

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u/extrememinimalist — 4 hours ago
🔥 Hot ▲ 76 r/redwire+1 crossposts

$100K $RDW bet- 200% gain and about to take off

I posted my Redwire DD previously. I'm up 200% on most of these positions but the big move hasn't happened yet. It's likely to start tomorrow (unless macro screws us).

For actual company DD I strongly recommend SpaceInvestor and ScottO on Twitter. I'll just highlight a couple points.

  1. Technical breakout is just starting. Pull up a chart on $RDW, you'll see it. The stocks has been held around $10 and now it's clear sailing up to $30+

  2. AE Industrial held over 30% of the company and has been selling for months, this has capped it around $10. Today, they got rid of all their remaing shares in a single private block sale after hours. This removes the single biggest negative for the company.

  3. Management. You're going to hear people say management sucks - they are missing the forest for the trees. The company doesn't demand a premium for management, even if you discount management it's still insanely undervalued. Management isn't the best but they have good ties to DoD which is where the money is. There is a lot of super bright people in the company at the product level. They have so many class leasing products and opportunities to win in various areas. Bottom line: There is more to the company than the CEO - he isn't even that bad, he just isn't Peter Beck or Elon Musk. Oh well, the company is $2B and doing $450M/year and growing.

Also: They suck. They have a habit of bad quarterlys, this is not a core holding. It's just a trade. People complain because they are PE backed. They are in it to make money, just like me. No emotional trade here. Pure greed.

Target $30-$50

u/dutch1664 — 18 hours ago
▲ 2 r/redwire

Anyone else just buying and selling on these 8 to 15% waves?

Literally free money here lol this stock is pathetic why hold when u can day trade this shit and make fucking bank

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u/adhdamp — 1 hour ago
▲ 36 r/redwire

Redwire price target raised to $15

Alliance Global raised Redwire Price Target to $15 from $10.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

u/WhatsNextBuddy — 9 hours ago
▲ 46 r/redwire

Finally ae is gone

Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that AE Industrial Partners, a private equity firm and one of Redwire’s largest shareholders, plans to sell its stake via a block trade (off-hours bulk sale) to raise up to $256.4 million.

•	The targeted sale price is between $11.05 and $11.93 per share, representing a discount of up to 7.4% from Wednesday’s regular-session closing price of $11.93.

Finally ae is gone!!!

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u/Time_Level_4726 — 23 hours ago