
r/hanta26

Suspected Hantavirus infection for a plane contact
UPDATE: a contact case has been transferred from hospital isolation to Paris today, and they are expecting two other contact cases to be transferred to the specialized parisian hospital.
A young woman has been taken to hospital urgently and some french media is reporting suspected hantavirus. She was a passenger on the Johannesburg-Amsterdam flight and would therefore have caught it on the plane....However, I'm finding it difficult to tell whether this is reliable or not.
Andes Strain is Airborne
It's Airborne:
Experts like Dr. Emily Abdoler (University of Michigan Health) have noted on news outlets that the Andes strain unique because it can travel via respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs or talks.
The official CDC Emergency Andes Virus Investigation Brief proves that hospitals are explicitly ordered to treat this as an airborne pathogen. The CDC officially instructs healthcare providers to place suspected Andes virus patients into an Airborne Infection Isolation Room (AIIR) and mandates that workers wear an N95 or higher-level respirator before entering the room to avoid breathing it
The scientific analysis published in The British Medical Journal (BMJ) features public health experts explicitly warning against downplaying the airborne risks of the Andes hantavirus. The authors demand that international agencies immediately implement strict precautionary airborne mitigation strategies—such as portable HEPA filtration and strict respirator use—across all tight quarantine quarters
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) Outbreak Report verifies that the primary way hantaviruses enter human populations is completely airborne. They note that the virus is contracted through the inhalation of aerosols contaminated with the urine, feces, or saliva of infected rodents that have become suspended in the ambient air.
KLM flight attendant tests negative for hantavirus; 5 passengers had close contact
nltimes.nlA second woman jet-setted around the globe after leaving the Andes Virus-plagued vessel, without anyone noticing
A look into one of the untraced cases, rightly pointing out the cruise passengers on this particular boat are rich and fetishize travel, and not your run of the mill swinger pensioner looking for an all inclusive.
This one went to an 'extreme traveler' conf in vietnam, multiple flights, and lives in Manhattan. No posts online since the 5th. Maybe dead in her apt, maybe just freaked people have found her. Seemingly uncontacted by the tracers
American Tests Positive for hantavirus in while exiting the cruise ship.
Have we made a big mistake by letting the passengers off? Comment your thoughts below.
Are these cruise passengers violating quarantine regulations?
Are these videos and the photo of Spanish cruise passengers and their behavior (no masks/masks removed) real? They’re supposed to be in quarantine right now, so these recordings are fake?
https://x.com/Guanmi79/status/2053534682600399215/video/1

Unanswered questions
If they truly feel like this won't turn into a full scale pandemic like COVID-19, and haven't declared one yet, why are they already working on a vaccine? Why are they contradicting themselves by telling everyone not to worry yet they are scrambling to do contact tracing in 12 countries and already working on a MRNA vaccine when they haven't even declared a global health emergency? Are these bad signs or just extra precautions they are taking to avoid another pandemic?
Another thing I don't understand is if it takes almost 8 weeks (2 months) to show symptoms.... 3 people out of the 8 confirmed cases have already died. We don't know if they had symptoms or not. Does this imply if people start dying for no reason with zero symptoms it was already too late since it takes 2 months for symptoms to appear? How does that even work? Is it only asymptomatic people who die or once symptoms appear then it's game over?
Researching hypothetical scenario if Hanta26 spreads as fast as COVID did.
​
Assumptions for this scenario:
- Andes virus mutates or is confirmed to spread via casual airborne contact (COVID-level R0 of ~2.5-3+)
- CFR remains in the 30-40% range without ECMO; ~15-20% with it
- No existing vaccine, no specific antiviral treatment
---
## Week 1-3: Detection Lag & Denial Window
This is the most dangerous phase. Because Andes hantavirus symptoms (fever, muscle aches, fatigue) are indistinguishable from flu for the first 4-7 days, and because the current framing is "contained cruise ship outbreak," widespread community transmission would likely go undetected for **2-3 weeks minimum**.
The US specifically has a problem here: the CDC has undergone significant budget cuts and restructuring under the current administration. The pandemic early warning infrastructure — particularly PREDICT and related programs — were already gutted after COVID. Surveillance capacity is genuinely degraded compared to 2020.
Internationally, WHO's capacity is also hampered. The US formally re-withdrew from WHO under Trump's second term, which fractures the coordination layer that actually matters in the first 30 days.
**Realistic outcome:** Silent spread in South America (Argentina, Chile especially, since that's the endemic rodent zone), Europe from the Hondius passengers, and potentially early US seeding through travel — all before any coordinated alarm is raised.
---
## Week 3-6: Alarm Without Coordination
Hospitals in multiple countries start seeing unexplained severe pneumonia clusters. The pattern gets recognized. This is where it diverges hard from COVID based on the current political environment.
**US-specific:**
- RFK Jr. is HHS Secretary. His instinct on novel pathogen response is deeply skeptical of institutional public health framing. Expect significant internal friction before any federal mobilization.
- The current administration's ideological posture is strongly against mask mandates, lockdowns, or anything that reads as "COVID 2.0" — politically toxic. That messaging will delay federal action by **weeks**, not days.
- ECMO capacity in the US is approximately 200-300 centers with maybe 2,000-3,000 machines nationwide. At a 30-40% CFR with COVID-level spread, those fill within **days** of a true surge. ECMO is not scalable like ventilators.
- No federal stockpile protocol exists for hantavirus PPE escalation.
**Europe:**
Faster and more coordinated response than the US, but post-COVID political fatigue is real. Germany, France, Netherlands have functional public health infrastructure. Expect European nations to move toward containment measures 2-3 weeks ahead of the US.
**Global South:**
Argentina and Chile are ground zero if this is circulating in rodent populations across the continent. Their healthcare systems — particularly ECMO capacity — are extremely limited. Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia: essentially no ECMO infrastructure. This becomes a mass casualty event in those regions almost immediately upon spread.
---
## Month 2-3: The Pivotal Window
This is where the 30-40% CFR changes everything compared to COVID. COVID's ~1% IFR allowed governments to delay, hedge, and half-measure their way through. **A 30% CFR cannot be politically managed the same way.** Bodies are visible fast.
At COVID-level spread with this CFR, projecting even conservatively:
- US with COVID's first wave pace (~30M infected in 6 months): **9-12 million deaths** in that window without effective intervention. That's not a scenario any administration can spin.
This is where the Trump administration dynamic gets complicated and somewhat unpredictable:
- The initial instinct will be to downplay (economic, political reasons)
- But the death toll visibility at 30% CFR makes denial untenable faster than COVID — probably by **week 6-8** of recognized community spread
- Expect an abrupt pivot to aggressive nationalism: border closures, domestic production orders (DPA invoked), and a blame-China or blame-WHO framing regardless of the actual origin
**What won't happen quickly:**
- Coordinated international response (US-WHO estrangement is real)
- A national mask mandate (politically impossible in this administration)
- School/business closures at federal level — this will be pushed entirely to states, creating a red/blue divergence in outcomes that is statistically measurable and brutal
---
## Month 3-6: Vaccine Race Under Different Constraints
Here's a key difference from COVID: **mRNA platform exists and proved itself**. Moderna and BioNTech could theoretically develop an Andes virus mRNA vaccine candidate in 60-90 days of intensive work. The platform is there.
But:
- RFK Jr.'s FDA is more skeptical of accelerated approval pathways
- The EUA framework that allowed COVID vaccine emergency authorization could face internal political resistance
- Anti-vax sentiment in the US is now significantly higher than 2020 — even if a vaccine arrives fast, uptake would be materially lower
Realistically, a functional vaccine at scale is **12-18 months out** — similar to COVID — but with worse uptake and more political friction around mandates.
**Globally:** COVAX and similar equity mechanisms are weaker now. Expect a repeat of the vaccine nationalism from 2020-2021, likely worse because the US is less engaged with multilateral frameworks.
---
## The Honest Macro Picture
If this goes COVID-level transmissible, the honest answer is: **this would be the worst infectious disease event in recorded human history**, likely surpassing the 1918 flu in absolute death toll given global population size. The 1918 flu had roughly a 2-3% CFR and killed 50-100 million. A 30% CFR pathogen at COVID spread is a civilization-level event.
The saving grace — and it's the reason this scenario probably doesn't materialize — is that viruses with very high CFR tend to burn through their hosts too fast and face strong evolutionary pressure to attenuate. Andes becoming both highly transmissible AND maintaining 30-40% lethality would be somewhat unusual virology. High CFR and high transmissibility are generally in tension.
Im Sure We Can Trust the Plague Boomers to Follow the Necessary Precautions
What happened to the crew?
Lots of talk of evacuating the passengers? What about the crew? Cruise ships tend to have very large crews, sometimes as much as one crew per passenger and most of those come from 3rd world countries…
Some facts regarding this virus
Here's some facts about Hantavirus; I hope this information will ease some of your potential worries:
The Hantavirus is a virus that is transmissible to humans through rodent feces, urine, and saliva. There are 2 major groups of the Hantavirus, Old World (found primarily in Europe, Asia) and New World (found in the Americas). The Old World group of Hantavirus are not transmissible from human-to-human. They primarily attack the kidneys, and they have a much lower mortality rate.
Then there's the New World Hantavirus, which is the group of the virus that is currently breaking out. The New World Hantavirus group has 2 major strains, which are the "Sin Nombre" and the "Andes". The Sin Nombre strain is not transmissible from human-to-human, however, the Andes is, which is the strain currently breaking out. The incubation period (the period of time where the virus is in a person's body, but they are not exhibiting symptoms) for the Andes virus typically lasts 9-40 days. During this incubation period, the Hantavirus is isolated to a person's bloodstream, and it is not believed to be contagious. Only until someone is actually exhibiting symptoms, like fever, headaches, etc., does the Andes virus become contagious because that means the virus has exited the bloodstream and is replicating in systems within the body that can transmit the virus.
There are two different types of viruses, naked and enveloped. Naked viruses only have a protein encasing, whilst enveloped viruses are encased in a lipid (fat) shell. The Andes virus is encased in a Lipid shell, which is comparable to viruses like Influenza and Covid. The Andes virus, in comparison to the other 2, is considered to be very fragile. Covid and Influenza are able to survive being dried out which gives them the ability to "glide" around on tiny aerosols and survive which gives it a highly contagious characteristic. The Andes virus, on the other hand, is highly sensitive. This means that, in cases of human virus shedding, the virus can only survive in droplets. These droplets, however, are much denser than aerosols, which means they will succumb to gravity and will drop directly to the ground, whereas viruses like Covid and Influenza will drift through the air for hours searching for a host.
Due to the above facts, and many others, experts believe that this is unlikely to become a global event, like Covid, because unlike Covid, due to the physical nature of the virus, the Andes virus is not nearly as contagious as Covid was. You would need to be within close physical contact (kissing, sharing utensils, sharing a bed, etc.) with someone who is visibly ill, or is just starting to exhibit symptoms, in order to come in contact with this virus. If you look at the nature of Covid, it was as contagious as it was because it was transmissible during the incubation period and it was able to survive for hours "gliding" through the air searching for its next host.
One last thing that categorizes this virus as "low risk" is its evolutionary pattern. Specifically, the genetic markers identified on the Andes virus that was on the cruise ship show that this virus has not gained any significant mutations. This is also different from Covid considering Covid was a novel virus which required us to slowly learn its characteristics that we were unaware of while it was rapidly spreading throughout the world.
I'm not a doctor, and this is purely for educational purposes. If anyone has any information they'd like to correct, please do so.
Edit: Just as a stubborn reminder, this post is a general understanding of the current scientific consensus. My word should not be taken as absolute truth; however, I did my absolute best to summarize the science as accurately as I could in plain English. Please remember to crosscheck and verify all facts with official public-health sources to ensure there are no mistakes, and once again, please feel free to correct any mistakes I may have made.
Study in EU verifies that Andes virus can be spread from those with no symptoms.
People can spread the virus before they start showing symptoms, and it can take up to two to eight weeks for symptoms to appear. This can make it challenging to control the outbreak.
National Quarantine Center/ Training, Simulation, & Quarantine Center
unmc.edu2007 Andes hantavirus study in Chile
Hi everyone!
Been following the research that I can find online and came across this study from 2007.
Found it very interesting.
The good news... the human to human transmission rate seems low and the study seems to show that you need contact with bodily fluids... but it also seems to show that asymptomatic spread is possible. ?
A 2007 prospective study in Chile investigated 476 household contacts of 76 Andes virus (ANDV) patients, finding that only 16 contacts (3.4%) developed Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS).
The study highlighted that transmission was highest among sexual partners, proving that human-to-human transmission of the Andes strain occurs but is relatively rare, with most infections stemming from rodent exposure.
Key Findings from the 476 Contact Study (Ferres et al.):
Transmission Mechanism: While 32.6% of total cases in the study occurred in household clusters, the risk was primarily concentrated among sexual partners of the index patient.
Low Secondary Rate: Of the 476 household contacts, only 16 (3.4%) developed the disease.
Viremia Timing: Researchers detected ANDV RNA in blood cells 5–15 days before symptom onset or antibody appearance, indicating the potential for pre-symptomatic transmission.
Significance: This study provided strong evidence of person-to-person transmission for the South American Andes hantavirus, distinguishing it from North American hantaviruses that do not typically spread between humans. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Contextual Data (Chile Hantavirus Research): Andes Virus (ANDV): The primary cause of severe hantavirus cases in Chile, carried by the Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (long-tailed pygmy rice rat).
Transmission Routes: Primarily through inhalation of aerosolized virus from rodent droppings, urine, or saliva in rural or forested areas.
Symptoms: Starts like the flu, developing into rapid lung failure, heart problems, and high fatality rates (approx. 30–40% in some outbreaks).
High Risk Factors: Close contact with infected persons, particularly sharing a bedroom or sexual contact. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The study specifically mentioned is: Prospective Evaluation of Household Contacts of Persons with Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome in Chile (Published in Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2007). [1] VIRAL SHEDDING AND VIREMIA OF ANDV DURING ACUTE ... - PMC Jul 1, 2025 — Study design and participants Between 2008 and 2022, ANDV-infected cases were invited to participate in a prospective research study conducted in 10 collaborati... PubMed Central (PMC) (.gov)
Press update | m/v Hondius: 8 May 2026, 19:00 hrs CET | News | Oceanwide Expeditions
Oceanwide Expeditions released their updated itinerary about how many passengers embarked/disembarked when and where on their journey. Does anyone know about the whereabouts of the American who disembarked on Ascencion Island together with their sick British partner? You can see on the website that they both supposedly got off the boat on April 27 on Ascencion Island “(\*\*) 1 symptomatic British national, 1 asymptomatic American national (partner of patient).”
They also interacted with people of Tristan da Cunha (April 13-16) shortly after patient zero had died on the boat (April 11).
On the boat was an Islander traveling as passenger who got off on the island and they picked up some islanders to help them get to St. Helena.
““The visit of the *Hondius* was more than just a cruise ship visits. She brought with her returning islander Conrad Glass, and kindly took away with her a family of islanders with her who are travelling overseas”
https://www.tristandc.com/shipping/news-2026-04-17-hondius.php
During their visit there they went to museums, a pub and 3 people from the boat visited a school.
https://www.tristandc.com/news-2026-04-20-hondiusschoolvisit.php