r/foreignpolicy

REALOPOLITIK:

1. Western intelligence reportedly believes Iran could survive a major U.S. blockade for months - much longer than many expected.
2. Iran still appears capable of exporting some oil through covert shipping networks and workarounds despite heavy pressure.
3. The article highlights the limits of economic warfare: sanctions and blockades hurt, but rarely create instant collapse.
4. Even under pressure, Tehran reportedly retains significant missile and drone capability, complicating any long-term containment strategy.
5. The bigger geopolitical risk remains the Strait of Hormuz - any prolonged conflict there could hit global oil prices and international shipping hard.