r/betfair

Long-time lurker here, occasional poster on trading threads.

Spent the last several months building a Telegram bot that monitors live football matches and pushes a notification when one of a few configured momentum patterns triggers.
Nothing fancy on the UX — it's Telegram, not a desktop console — but the engine is decent: sub-5s latency from stat update to notification on most matches.

The patterns it currently watches for:

• Current favourite sustaining pressure in the opposing third
• Underdog generating dangerous play against a favourite
• A previously balanced match where one side starts dominating possession-of-pressure
• High bilateral activity (both sides pushing)
• Pace dropping significantly on both sides

It tells you a match is in a specific state. What you do with that — back, lay, scalp, ignore — is on you.
I built it because I got tired of having 6 tabs of stat consoles open and still missing the phases I cared about.

Currently in private beta. Looking for ~20 more testers willing to use it for 8 weeks in exchange for actual feedback (one short form every couple weeks, that's it). Beta tier gives 3 active patterns, 70 alerts/week, full odds visible. No payment, no card, no catch.

If you've used similar apps and have an opinion on what's missing — especially interested in your input.

DM if you want in, or comment and I'll reach out.

Disclaimer because it matters: this is a statistical analytics tool, not betting advice.

I've built a full-stack profitable automated horse racing value betting system - looking for serious collaborators

Long post but I want to give enough detail to attract people working at this level rather than just getting generic replies.

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**What I've built**

Started this as a uni project (Mechanical Engineering, so this is self-taught on the ML and python side) and it's grown into something I want to take seriously. The system runs end-to-end:

- **Data:** Mix of publicly available form data, race conditions (going, distance, class, field size), market data (BSP, pre-race odds), and jockey/trainer stats. Currently the ingestion side is semi-automated - I do manual downloads that feed into a fully automated processing and feature engineering pipeline.

- **Model:** Random Forest classifier to identify winners.

- **Staking:** Kelly criterion implementation to size bets based on perceived edge. Log regression of all previous bets to estimate win probability of potential bets and size them accordingly. Also do a flat staking on BSP.

- **Execution:** Full Betfair API integration - once a race qualifies, bets are placed automatically. The full cycle from form data to live bet placement runs in under 5 minutes. I also have a twitter account that tweets my bets in the morning directly from python to prove legitimacy.

Getting the Betfair API genuinely functional and reliable was a significant challenge and I consider a clean, fast end-to-end integration one of the main thing I have to offer a collaboration.

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**Where I'm at and what I want to improve**

The system is live and running on UK racing. I'm still in the performance evaluation phase - I'm not here to claim I've cracked it, but the infrastructure is solid and working. At BSP flat stakes my tweets returned a 30% ROI. And I took £500 up to a monthly betting revenue of £9900.

The two areas I know are weakest:

1. **Probability calibration** - my RF outputs raw probabilities that I use for value identification, but I haven't built a proper calibration layer. I suspect this is costing me on edge calculation. I've already got a neural net in development.

2. **Feature engineering** - I'm reasonably confident in the features I have but I don't have strong conviction that I'm capturing the right signals, especially around market dynamics, identifying the correct races in the morning (as there are later non runners).

3. **New Edges** - I want to develop other strategies, like identifying horses whose prices are likely to move in, and buying them in the morning and selling those before the off for a guaranteed return.

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**What I'm looking for**

I want to talk to people working on the same or adjacent problems who are actually in the game - live execution, real models. Not interested in theoretical discussions or people earlier in the journey.

Specifically interested in:

- **Commercial potential** - open to exploring what a more serious joint project could look like.

- **Adjacent sports** - In horse racing I will share a guarded amount of my tech, if you are working on an adjacent sport I would share almost all of it provided there is mutual benefits.

Drop a comment or DM if any of this resonates. Happy to go deep on a call into the technical details with the right people.