Going into this week, the market is 100% headline-driven, be careful and don't overtrade!

Lots of people are going to blow their accounts this week with the volatility that will come. There is a reason all of these prop firms Easter sales continue until the end of the week...

• Trump is expected to speak Monday morning regarding Iran, after escalating rhetoric over the weekend
• Strait of Hormuz situation = oil shock + inflation risk
• Markets have already shown:
  • Futures dumping on escalation
  • Violent squeezes on any de-escalation hints
• Oil spike → inflation risk → Fed stays restrictive longer

This is a geopolitical volatility regime, not a normal technical market.

Big Picture (Weekly Chart):

ES Weekly Chart using TrenVantage TRADER Indicator

• Trend: Rolling over from highs
• Structure: Lower highs forming
• Price lost key support and is now under major moving averages

Key levels:

• Resistance: ~6950 – 6620 zone
• Support: ~6595 → 6264.5 below

👉 Weekly takeaway:

• Market has shifted from trend continuation → distribution / early downtrend
• Any bounce into resistance = likely sell unless headlines flip bullish

Medium-Term (Daily Chart)

ES Daily Chart using TrenVantage RETAIL Indicator

Price has not yet regained the move down which started at 6634. Having already tested support at 6509, if it continues to trend downward imagine that will not hold a second time.

• Clear downtrend structure
• Lower highs + lower lows
• Price below key MAs (bearish alignment)

Key levels:

• Resistance: 6600–6620
• Major resistance above: ~6775 / 6880
• Support: 6385 → then 6200s

👉 Daily takeaway:

• This is a sell-the-rip environment
• Bounces are corrective unless reclaiming 6600+ and holding

Short-Term (Intraday / 4H & 1H)

ES 4H Chart using TrenVantage RETAIL Indicator

ES 1H Chart using TrenVantage TRADER Indicator

HTF trends are bearish, with a sharp eye on what happens on this 1H/4H chart. If they can regain here and the daily becomes gained, they will attempt to push higher.

• Market just had a sharp selloff → bounce attempt
• Reaction off ~6385 support
• Now sitting around decision zone (~6600 area)

Key zones:

• 6570–6600 = pivot
• Above → squeeze potential
• Below → continuation lower

👉 Short-term takeaway:

• We are in decision territory
• Expect expansion soon (range compression → move)
• Be careful with news at 10am on Monday

Scenarios for This Week:

🟥 Bear Case (Primary for now)

• Trump escalates tone Monday
• Oil continues higher
• ES rejects 6600

Targets:

• 6500 → 6385
• Break 6385 → acceleration lower

🟩 Bull Case (Headline-driven squeeze)

• De-escalation / diplomacy tone
• Oil pulls back

Targets:

• Reclaim 6600 → squeeze to 6700+

🟨 Chop / Whipsaw (VERY likely)

• Mixed headlines (most probable outcome)
• Algo-driven spikes both directions

Expect:

• Fake breakdowns
• Violent reversals
• Low conviction trend days
• Above 6700 → test highs again

⚠️ Key Things to Watch

• Monday: Trump speech (major catalyst)
• Oil price behavior (this is leading risk sentiment)
• VIX staying elevated (~mid 20s recently)
• Headline timing (moves can happen overnight)

TrenVantage Indicators (Retail vs Trader)

🔹 TrenVantage RETAIL

This version is more signal-oriented and simplified, geared toward clarity over depth.

🔸 TrenVantage TRADER

This is the more advanced / granular version, and offers full market context and bias.