r/Shortages

Followup to my previous posts. Net shortage count moved 10 → 12 active + 3 watch since yesterday. Most of the change is on the European road-fuel side after I went back through the sources and reconciled what's actually in force vs what's old news.

**What changed since the last post:**

- ADDED Slovenia — 50L/day private + 200L/day commercial road-fuel rationing. First EU country to ration. In force since March 23, no revocation.

- ADDED Hungary — foreign-plate price-cap regime now Day 60. HU plates pay capped 595 HUF/L petrol; foreign plates pay full market rate.

- ADDED Ireland (watch) — April protests resolved by €505M govt package, but organisers signalling further action before the autumn budget. Munster forecourts most exposed.

- REMOVED Philippines (PAL/Cebu Pacific) — fresh April capacity data shows PH aviation +13.4% YoY (Cebu Pacific +20%, PAL adding North America). The previously-tracked May cut at MNL appears to have been superseded.

- UK strengthened — government FORMALLY confirmed slot-rule loosening May 4 (was "pending" yesterday). Goldman Sachs note May 6 flags UK as most-at-risk for jet fuel rationing summer 2026; EU jet fuel inventories projected <23-day IEA threshold in June.

**Currently active (jet fuel):**

- Nigeria (LOS, ABV) — Air Peace 3x weekly Abuja-London until July 1; NMDPRA price cap holding

- UK (LHR) — 111 May flights cut; slot rule formally loosened; Heathrow at 7-10 days bunkered

- Germany (FRA, MUC) — Lufthansa 20,000-flight cancellation programme through October

- Türkiye (IST) — Turkish Airlines suspending 18 international destinations May-Jun

- Vietnam (SGN) — VietJet -19.9%, Vietnam Airlines domestic suspensions through May

- Hong Kong (HKG) — Cathay 2% cuts from May 16, HK Express 6% from May 11 (this Sunday)

- US — Spirit Airlines wound down May 2 (Day 5), ~1.8M May seats cancelled, JetBlue absorbing FLL

- India — international ATF +5.33% effective May 1 (2nd consecutive monthly hike)

- Australia (Geelong refinery) — Viva Energy: production constrained 6+ weeks, RCCU offline until June

**Currently active (road fuel — Europe):**

- Slovenia — daily volume rationing (above)

- Hungary — foreign-plate price cap (above)

- Germany (PCK Schwedt) — Druzhba northern leg halt Day 7, ~17% feedstock cut

**Currently active (road fuel — rest of world):**

- Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh — hard rationing

- India — LPG demand-side rationing, cylinder booking 21→25 days

- Japan — emergency reserves being drawn down

- Indonesia — 50 L/day cap

- Philippines — national energy emergency declared (road fuel side, separate from aviation)

- Egypt — govt vehicle fuel allowance cut 33%

- Australia — fuel excise halved

**Watch (haven't pinned but worth knowing):**

- Ireland — protest recurrence risk

- Japan airports — carrier refuelling restrictions, no NOTAM yet

- Australia — Geelong refinery output reduction

**Hormuz current state:** strait traffic at ~5% of pre-war baseline (-95% per Kpler / CNN / IMF Portwatch), updated from earlier -72% figure that came from GEF's own April 17-25 AIS observation window. Pakistan-mediated US-Iran MoU under review in Tehran; Iran response expected ~May 8. Trump cooled May 6 evening ("too soon" to sign + bombing threat). Brent rebounded to ~$102 today after May 6 -7.8% close at $101.27.

**Sources used for this update (multi-source cross-check, last 7 days unless noted):**

- Trading Economics, NBC News, CNBC, CBS News (May 6-7 — oil prices, Iran response window)

- Aviation Week / GOV.UK (May 4-5 — UK formal slot-rule confirmation)

- Fortune / OPIS (May 6 — Goldman Sachs UK rationing risk note + IEA 23-day threshold projections)

- Newsweek / RTV Slovenia / AOL (April-May — Slovenia rationing)

- Hungarian Conservative / Hungary Today / GlobalPetrolPrices (May 4 — HU foreign-plate cap)

- Irish Times (May 2 — Ireland protest resurgence signalling)

- Travel & Tour World / TTG Asia (April — Philippines capacity growth, used to remove the entry)

- Travel And Tour World / Premium Times / Sahara Reporters / Nairametrics (April 24-25 — Nigeria Air Peace ongoing)

- AeroRoutes / Simple Flying / FTN News / AeroTime (Apr-May — Turkish Airlines 18 suspensions)

- Lufthansa Group press release (Apr 22 — forward-filed 20,000-flight programme)

- AirlineGeeks / CNBC / Cxagents (Apr-May — Cathay/HK Express cuts)

- AeroRoutes / TTG Asia / Bloomberg (Apr — Vietnam carrier capacity cuts)

- CNN / NPR / CNBC / Wikipedia (May 2-5 — Spirit Airlines wind-down)

- Republic World / BusinessToday (May 1 — India ATF hike)

- Xinhua / Bloomberg (May 4 — Geelong refinery RCCU update)

- TASS / Pipeline Technology Journal / Al Jazeera (Apr 22 — Druzhba north halt)

- Kpler / Lloyd's List / IMF Portwatch (May 2-7 — Hormuz traffic, stranded tankers)

- GIE AGSI+ (May 6 — EU gas storage)

If I'm missing something or you're seeing something on the ground that contradicts any of these, please flag — I'll re-check sources for the next update.

Quick roundup of where the global fuel shortage actually stands today, after the IRGC reversed Saturday's apparent strait reopening.

Aviation (worsening):

• Spirit Airlines ceased all ops May 2 — first major US carrier collapse in 25 years (CNN, NPR)
• Lufthansa Group cancelling 20,000 short-haul flights Apr–Oct; pilot strike May 4-5 adds further disruption (Lufthansa Group newsroom Apr 21)
• Vienna VIE airport reports ~12 days of jet fuel reserves remaining; OMV/MOL emergency contracts active (IEA Apr 17)
• UK May 4 cliff edge: Ryanair/easyJet supplier guarantees expire tomorrow; 10–25% summer supply at risk (Wego May 1)
• ACI Europe: 100+ EU airports at systemic risk; many hubs at 8–10 days stock

Road fuel:

• Ireland recovering from April protests but ~300 stations still dry; diesel ~€2.08/L (RTÉ Apr 15)
• Germany PCK Schwedt refinery lost ~17–25% feedstock when Russia halted Druzhba northern leg May 1 — Berlin/Brandenburg fuel supply at risk (TASS, Al Jazeera Apr 22)

Hormuz: Iran's IRGC declared May 2 that "control of the Strait has returned to its previous state" — two Indian-flagged ships fired on; India summoned Iranian ambassador (Al Jazeera). Lloyd's List: transits halted after Saturday incidents.

Brent: $108.17 (May 1 settle, no fresh print over weekend).

Day 64 and counting.