The thing that keeps pulling me back to silver over gold right now is that the demand side of the equation has fundamentally changed in a way that I don't think is fully reflected in how people are positioning. Industrial consumption has become the dominant driver and it isn't cyclical in the way it used to be. Solar installations are locking in silver demand years in advance, the grid buildout isn't slowing down, and the Silver Institute has been reporting structural supply deficits for several consecutive years now. That gap doesn't close easily because bringing new primary silver supply online takes the better part of a decade from discovery to production.
Where I've been spending more time lately is on the producer side rather than just holding physical or streaming names. The royalty and streaming companies are great but at current valuations you're paying for safety, not leverage. And most of the junior exploration names are exactly that, exploration stories with no revenue and a long runway before they matter.
The junior producer space is where the interesting risk/reward sits right now and it's a surprisingly short list of companies that actually qualify. Sierra Madre Gold and Silver is one I've been watching closely. They just wrapped up their first full year of commercial production at La Guitarra in Mexico: $25M USD in revenue, $6M adjusted EBITDA, cash from operations positive, and revenue growing every single quarter through 2025. Plant expansion commissioning in Q2 takes throughput up 50%, a second mine acquisition from First Majestic closes next month, and Franklin Templeton and Eric Sprott are already in the register. Still under $2 on the TSX-V.
The junior producer gap in the silver market is real and there aren't many names filling it right now. This piece goes deeper on the Sierra Madre numbers and how it fits into the broader silver producer landscape if anyone wants to dig in: https://criticalmineralsstocks.substack.com/p/silver-stocks-sierra-madres-banner