swisstony. 96,000 trades. $730M volume. #1 by volume on the entire polymarket leaderboard. biggest single win $711,700. average profit per trade only $156 but he does it ninety six thousand times.

his strategy is insane. when a goal is scored in a stadium your tv shows it 15-40 seconds later. his bot gets the data before the broadcast. in that window polymarket odds haven't moved yet. bot places bets at old prices. by the time you see the goal on tv he already locked in the trade.

i track whales using a tool that breaks down traders by category, speed, volume, all that. swisstony showed up as 90% football which is rare because most top wallets are crypto or politics guys. $7.7M from football alone. i had to try copying him.

set it up to mirror his trades with $150. put a 12% stop loss, trailing stop at 8%, max $40 per market. figured i'd catch some of his wins even if i'm a few seconds late.

after 1 week of copying:

started with $150

current balance: $138

trades copied: ~85

wins: 34

losses: 51

biggest win: $1.80

biggest loss: $2.40

i lost money. here's why.

his edge is the 15 second window. my copies were executing 1 seconds after his. by then the odds already moved. i was buying at the corrected price with no edge left. his $156 average profit per trade becomes my $0.15 loss per trade because i'm always late.

the stop losses worked fine. they capped my losses on individual positions. but the problem wasn't big losses. it was lots of tiny losses adding up because every copied trade had slightly worse odds than his.

the lesson is not every whale is worth copying. swisstony is probably the most profitable trader on polymarket but his strategy needs infrastructure that regular people don't have. the copy trading tools and risk settings work great but only when the whale's edge doesn't depend on millisecond speed.

you can watch his trades yourself: polymarket.com/@swisstony

Hey everyone, I just published a full beginner tutorial on building a Polymarket trading bot..and it's 100% free. I'm not selling anything.

Upfront disclaimer: this is not a profitable bot out of the box. don't expect to clone it, run it, and print money. what it is is a solid step-by-step foundation (the wallet setup, the API plumbing, the order management, the risk controls, the execution loop) that you can build your own custom strategy on top of. the signal engine in the guide is intentionally simple so you understand the shape of one. the real edge is whatever you bring to it.

I wrote it because there's just not enough quality information out there on this topic. you can either find sketchy GitHub repos with no docs and no idea what they're actually doing, or people selling bots with zero proof or verification that they work. nothing in the middle that just walks you through how to build one yourself and understand every piece. that's the gap I'm trying to fill.

What you'll actually build in this tutorial

an automated bot that trades the BTC Up/Down 15M market. every 15 minutes it wakes up, looks at where BTC has been moving, decides if it wants to bet UP or DOWN, places an order, and waits for the next cycle. simple loop, real money (eventually), real feedback.

I picked this market because it's a great teacher. fast cycles mean you see your bot's behavior in minutes instead of days. it's binary, so the logic stays clean. and the stakes per cycle are small enough that the learning experience doesn't have to be expensive.

once you've built it for BTC 15M, the same patterns transfer to any other time frame if you want to stick to crypto up/down markets or maybe try something different like sports, or weather.

What makes this approachable now

a few years ago, building this would've been a longgg project. you'd need trading infrastructure experience and a lot of patience reading API docs that assumed you already knew everything.

Today, that's changed:

• AI coding agents do the heavy lifting. claude code, codex allow you to paste in what you're trying to do, get working code back. the guide is built around this. every step has a "walk me through this" prompt you copy into your agent of choice. you're not coding alone. HOWEVER, this doesn't mean you should blindly just copy and paste and not think about what you're doing...that is a recipe to fail. You should pay attention, use these tools for what they offer and ask questions!
• the Polymarket Python SDK is actually good. it handles the auth, the order signing, the order book queries. you call functions, you get data back.

How the guide is structured

It's an 8-step guide with copy-pasteable agentic prompts for each section.

• set up your wallet and dev environment. funding pUSD, generating API keys, scaffolding the project.
• connect to Polymarket and pull live data. first authenticated call, fetching the current market, reading the order book.
• build the signal engine. the part that decides UP or DOWN. starts simple on purpose so you understand the structure before you make it fancy.
• place and manage orders. submitting, polling for fills, cancelling cleanly.
• add risk controls. position sizing, exposure caps, a daily loss circuit breaker. boring to build, glad to have.
• automate the loop. scheduling, logging, running it unattended.
• paper trade, then go live. simulated fills first so you can validate everything without spending a dollar. when you do go live, you start with $2 trades. seriously.

A note on going live

Paper trading mode is in the guide for a reason. flip a setting and the bot runs the full loop but simulates fills instead of placing real orders. let it run for a few hours, look at the logged PnL, and you'll know whether your signal is doing anything before you commit real money. it's the best feedback loop in the whole tutorial.

When you do go live, the guide recommends starting with $2 max trades and a 3% daily loss limit. day one isn't about making money. it's about confirming the plumbing works in production. once you've seen it work with real (tiny) money, scaling up is the easy part.

Who this is for

• beginners and anyone who wants to build their first Polymarket bot. no prior bot experience required, just a little Python and the willingness to work through it.
• you've heard "Polymarket bot" thrown around and want to see what's under the hood without taking on a huge learning curve.

If this sounds like something you're interested in trying out, I'll drop the link in my profile. It's 100% free! I don't want to get flagged or banned for promotion unless a mod says I can post the link directly in the comments.

I'm happy to answer any questions in the comments, hope this helps some of you!

Hey everyone, I’m back with another one. Last weeks slip-me writeup got way more traction than i expected and a few people in the comments + DMs were asking for someone trading sports too, not just BTC up/down. One thing I do want to say is I am doing all of these reports off the one data point that I have.... which is the public on-chain logs from these traders. There will always be things such as strategy, or bot configuration that differs from what the logs show...that is just something you should keep in mind and I wanted to say.

Sharky6999 is one of the most talked about wallets on Polymarket, I think I saw posts about Sharky before I even got into building bots or trading on PM. One thing to keep in mind, and quite honestly I was little worried about doing this report because unlike some of the other traders I’ve analyzed, the strategy here is primarily his infrastructure. Sharky6999 mainly bets insanely large amounts of money on favorites right before expiration, with close to a second left. One of the reasons he’s as popular as he is, is because it’s so appealing to new users (like myself when I started my polymarket journey) to see this, and think “oh it’s that simple?” but then you try for yourself and are QUICKLY humbled.  

Quick rundown on the numbers. This is the recap of 31 days of trade logs (and yes i used AI to go through the 90 freaking thousand trades in the 31 days of logs i pulled, so you all can keep quiet with the "omg you uSeD Ai tO wRitE this!!!" those comments are so annoying lol):

• 90,086 total trades (80,781 buys, 9,305 sells)
• 2,906 trades per active day
• $21.26M in gross turnover, roughly $670k cycled per day
• Median fill size: $0.74 | p99: $3,302 | largest single fill: $431,970
• Average entry price: $0.95+ (54,297 of his fills sit in the $0.90–$1.00 band, basically the whole wallet)
• Net P/L: +$59,615 on $20.74M deployed
• ROI: +0.29%
• Win rate: 98.9%
• Rolling 7-day windows green: 31 of 31
• Rolling 15-day windows green: 31 of 31

THE STRATEGY:

The core mechanic is straightforward. Sharky buys heavy favorites and holds them to settlement. He is not market making, only 1% of his markets show both sides bought, and he is not penny scalping. His pattern is to scan the orderbook for outcomes priced between $0.90 and $0.99 that carry a high probability of resolving at $1.00, then size into them aggressively. The trade offers roughly four cents of upside per share, less the occasional loss and platform fees. The economics only work under two conditions: a near-perfect hit rate, and the ability to deploy meaningful capital per fill. Sharky satisfies both.

The most notable structural finding is the diversification across his book. Crypto accounts for 34% of deployed capital, but the sports verticals are where the consistency stands out. Every sports category in the 31 day window cleared a 100% win rate:

• Soccer: $4.95M deployed, 100% WR
• Tennis: $2.01M deployed, 100% WR
• MLB: $1.61M, 100% WR
• NBA: $1.42M, 100% WR
• NHL: $495k, 100% WR (his best ROI category at 0.6%)
• NFL, CBB, UFC: all 100% WR

He is only touching games where one side is already priced as a foregone conclusion, then sizing into them.

WHY YOU CANNOT COPY HIM / HIS INFRA:

This is the part that matters. The edge is infrastructure and that is what makes him uncopiable. the public discourse has been converging on this hypothesis for a while now and I agree with it.

Key data points pointing to bare metal / private RPC:

• His fill timing. His median gap between consecutive fills in the same market is 0 seconds, and 89.4% of paired fills land within ten seconds of each other. In plain terms, his bot is reacting to orderbook changes and submitting orders faster than anything you can run from home internet or a standard cloud VPS.
• server location. Polymarket's matching engine runs on AWS in London (eu-west-2). To compete on speed, the bot has to sit physically close to that data center, typically Dublin or London, where round-trip latency drops to under a millisecond. Anywhere else and you are losing the race before it starts.
• RPC throughput. Every Polymarket trade settles on Polygon, which requires an RPC node to send transactions. Public RPCs cap requests, throw 429 errors, and run inconsistent latency under load. At 90k trades a month with single fills up to $431k, one failed signature at the wrong moment costs more than his entire monthly P/L. He is almost certainly running a dedicated or self-hosted node.
• Order signing. Every Polymarket order has to be cryptographically signed before it can be submitted. At nearly 3,000 trades per day, signing one order at a time is not viable. He is likely using pre-signed batches or a local signing service running on the same machine as the bot.

The working theory across the bot research community right now is bare metal in dublin or london, dedicated polygon RPC node...this is not cheap (chainstack dedicated or self hosted), websocket subscriptions to every active market, pre-signed order batching, maker rebate harvesting where he can sit on the book.

Bottom line: this is the first wallet I've covered where replication isn't really on the table. Matching his setup means matching his infrastructure spend AND bringing six figures of working capital, and even then you're racing him directly from a disadvantaged starting position.

The more useful takeaway is what Sharky signals about the broader space. There is now a clear top tier of operators running HFT-grade infrastructure on a platform that, until recently, was mostly retail and weekend Python scripts. That gap is going to keep widening.

If you are interested in the full 6-page report on Sharky, I posted it on my site (link in profile, also pinned in my discord which is linked in my profile).

Drop your suggestions for the next report below! I'll keep knocking these out for the subreddit. Thanks everyone

I’m pretty active with market research, so I need wallet tracking that’s actually accurate for spotting patterns and monitoring activity. I’ve been using Polycool lately, and honestly, it’s been working really well so far.

Still, I’ve been searching for other options, but at this point, I’m not sure if anything does it better. Would like to hear some serious opinions from people who actively use these tools.

So... for some reason, the winning positions disappear.

It's happened to me about three times today... even though the history shows the purchases, the positions appear, and the "ROI" tag shows the difference, right before the settlement, ONLY THE WINNING POSITIONS disappear.

What's happening here? Are these cases of "ghost fills"?

Have had success running exit polls in South American elections aswell as a connect who has helped tip off info early. Feel free to reach out