I plan to hold these positions for the next 1-2 years. Just bought into MU today in the plan that Samsung strike happens and DRAM tanks a bit and MU rips.
EDIT: 13 May 2026 - Today was a good day
Nokia: “It’s in the data center. It’s considered to be part of the cloud part of that wedding layer cake that I gave you, and it’s just also got a great defense contract. So it’s got the cloud and it’s got defense. What can I say? It’s a buy.”
I believe he's spoken positively about Noka April 15, April 30 and now May 11.
One may have many opinions about Cramer's expertise, but once again Nokia was presented in a positive light, which is likely to increase Nokia's visibility and potentially the appetite for buying into it.
Just sold my farm, phone, headphones. Just to buy more shares of Nokia and add on to my 6$ position. There’s no way this could lose
Mine is around 30. Wondering what other people have in mind. Also what if we get a dot com like crash?
Defense, telecom, cloud, and robotics just collapsed into one stack. Wall Street still prices them as four
Two weeks ago, Anduril and Nokia — a privately held American defense company and a Finnish telecom equipment maker — announced a 5G tower you can airdrop onto a battlefield and have lit up in three hours. We covered the trade in Issue #53.
Read that again. A NATO-relevant European telecom vendor shipping battlefield infrastructure through a U.S. defense startup, with a service-pricing model attached.
Telecom companies don't ship weapons. Defense companies don't write cloud software. Cloud companies don't build satellites. Robotics companies don't deploy AI at the edge of a war zone. These are four or five different industries with four or five different cost structures, customer bases, regulators, and analyst coverage universes.
Except they're not. Not anymore.
The single most important structural shift across the public equity universe in 2026 is the collapse of those category walls into one converging stack. Cloud, edge AI, telecom, robotics, autonomy, and satellite networking are merging into a single architecture — built by overlapping vendors, financed by overlapping budgets, producing overlapping data flows. The Pentagon calls it Joint All-Domain Command and Control, or JADC2, with derivative programs spanning Project Maven, NGAD, Replicator, and the Golden Dome missile defense initiative. The cloud world calls it agentic AI, robotics-as-a-service, and sovereign compute. The two are increasingly the same thing.
The investment categories on Wall Street have not caught up. Telecom equipment trades at a telecom multiple. Defense primes trade at a defense multiple. Hyperscalers trade at a cloud multiple. Robotics names trade at speculative-growth multiples. But increasingly, all of them are competing for the same dollars, building the same products, and selling into the same end markets.
"The convergence itself is the trade. The mispricing is in the bucket, not the company."
THE ARCHITECTURE IS ALREADY BUILT
Anduril and Nokia is the loudest example because it crosses the most obvious boundary — a NATO-relevant European telecom company shipping product into a Pentagon procurement pipeline through an American defense startup. But it is not the first example, and it will not be the last. Look at what has shipped or been announced in the last twelve months:
CONVERGENCE EVIDENCE — LAST 12 MONTHS
ON THE RECORD: Microsoft operates Azure Government Top Secret and Secret cloud regions and is named on multiple classified AI workload contract vehicles, including programs adjacent to Project Maven. Interpretation: a cloud company is now backbone infrastructure for battlefield systems.
ON THE RECORD: Palantir reports both Government and Commercial segments, sells the AIP agentic platform into both, and disclosed Army TITAN program participation in 2024. Interpretation: the same software stack now compounds across two end markets that used to require two different sales motions.
ON THE RECORD: Anduril ships Lattice as a software-defined operating layer across drones, towers, undersea systems, and partner hardware; the 5G CST is the most recent example. Interpretation: Anduril is operating less like a defense prime and more like a platform company that happens to have a defense customer base.
ON THE RECORD: Amazon's Project Kuiper and SpaceX's Starlink/Starshield hold Pentagon contract vehicles for both communications and sensing. Interpretation: space companies are now direct competitors in defense communications, not just commercial broadband.
ON THE RECORD: Nvidia ships the same CUDA stack into hyperscaler training clusters, autonomous trucking platforms, humanoid robotics partners, and defense edge compute customers. Interpretation: a single semiconductor architecture is now the inference layer for four distinct end markets that the Street still tracks separately.
ON THE RECORD: Nokia Federal Solutions and Ericsson's federal arm both exist, are hiring against tactical 5G mandates, and have shipped or announced product. Interpretation: European telecom equipment vendors are now structurally embedded in U.S. defense procurement — a development that would have been unthinkable five years ago.
Each of these is, in isolation, an interesting press release. Taken together, they describe a new category that does not have a clean ticker bucket: the converged sensing-compute-communications stack. Some of it is built for war. Some of it is built for self-driving trucks. Some of it is built for warehouse robots. The stack underneath is increasingly the same stack.
WHY NOW — THREE FORCING FUNCTIONS
Convergence is not happening because executives suddenly noticed adjacent markets. It is happening because three structural forces are forcing it to happen.
1. The data problem. A modern combat system, a self-driving truck, a humanoid robot, and a smart factory all generate the same problem: terabytes of multi-sensor data per asset per day, requiring real-time inference, low-latency networking, and distributed compute. The hardware required to solve that problem in the Mojave Desert is the hardware required to solve it in a Toyota factory or a Phoenix data center. The customer is different. The architecture is identical.
2. The procurement problem. The Pentagon cannot wait ten years for the next prime contractor to ship a custom-built radio. It is buying commercial silicon, commercial software stacks, commercial cloud, and commercial wireless — and bolting on hardening, encryption, and zero-trust security. This is the explicit logic behind the Replicator initiative (the Pentagon's program to field thousands of low-cost autonomous systems within 24 months) and the FY26 budget expansion at the Defense Innovation Unit, or DIU (the Pentagon's fast-lane for commercial technology procurement). Commercial-first procurement is a one-way door. Once defense buys at commercial price points, it does not return to bespoke.
3. The capital problem. Defense primes have weaponizable cash flow but slow innovation cycles. AI and cloud companies have fast innovation cycles but no defense distribution. Telecom equipment vendors have hardware scale but flat end markets. The mathematics of the situation force partnerships, joint ventures, acquisitions, and convergent product roadmaps. Anduril-Nokia is the template. Expect more.
"Commercial-first procurement is a one-way door."
THE MULTIPLE MISMATCH
Here is the clearest way we know how to describe the mispricing. A defense prime trades on backlog and program-of-record visibility — typically 16 to 22 times forward earnings, with single-digit growth. A hyperscaler trades on revenue growth, operating leverage, and AI capex absorption — typically 25 to 35 times forward earnings, with mid-teens growth. A telecom equipment vendor trades on cyclical capex of carrier customers — typically 10 to 14 times forward earnings, with low-single-digit growth.
Now ask: what multiple should a company command if it sits at the intersection of all three? If the same product line sells into the Pentagon, into hyperscalers, into autonomous fleets, and into smart factories — and if the underlying technology is the same on the bill of materials — then the company is not a defense company or a telecom company or a cloud company. It is a converged stack vendor, and Wall Street has no native multiple for that.
Our argument is that the converged stack vendor deserves a higher multiple than its current bucket assigns, because (a) it has multiple uncorrelated end markets, (b) at least one of those end markets — defense — is in a multi-year structural up-cycle, and (c) its software content tends to compound over time as Lattice-style operating layers create real switching costs. None of that is yet reflected in consensus models. That gap is the trade.
"If the cash flows are uncorrelated, the multiple shouldn't be either."
A converged stack vendor is not a diversified conglomerate — those reliably trade at a discount because the segments fight for capital and the analyst coverage gets muddied. A converged stack vendor is something different: structurally hedged. The same R&D dollar produces product that ships into commercial AI and into the Pentagon. The same silicon serves a self-driving truck and a battlefield sensor. The cash flows are not just uncorrelated — they are funded by different counterparties on different cycles, which is the textbook definition of a higher-quality earnings stream. Higher quality earns a higher multiple, eventually.
$960B. FY26 base defense budget request, +5% YoY
$1.4T. Combined hyperscaler capex 2025-2026E
27%. AI/cloud SAM CAGR per Nokia mid-2026 update
60+. ADC2-adjacent contract awards FY24-FY25
Sources: DoD FY26 budget materials; company filings (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Oracle); Nokia 1Q26 release; GAO and CRS contract tracking.
WHERE THE MONEY GOES — FOUR LAYERS, TWELVE NAMES
We organize the convergence trade in four layers, top to bottom of the stack. Each layer has investable names that already sit at the intersection — not pure-play tickers, but companies whose business mix is shifting hard enough that a re-rating is plausible over the next twelve to twenty-four months.
LAYER. INVESTABLE NAMES. WHY IT RE-RATES
Software & Operating Layer — the Lattice equivalents. PLTR (Palantir) MSFT (Microsoft) AMZN (Amazon). Already sells the same software stack into commercial and defense customers. Multiple compounds as commercial AI and defense AI converge on the same toolchain. Palantir is the cleanest read-through; Microsoft and Amazon are the asymmetric defense exposure inside cloud names already owned for AI.
Compute & Silicon — the inference layer. NVDA (Nvidia) AVGO (Broadcom) MRVL (Marvell). Edge inference for autonomy, robotics, and battlefield AI runs on the same chips powering hyperscaler training. Broadcom and Marvell own the custom silicon and networking ASIC franchises that scale into defense and telecom edge nodes. Nvidia is the platform layer.
Networking & Connectivity — tactical and terrestrial. NOK (Nokia) ANET (Arista) CIEN (Ciena). Nokia is the converged-stack play on tactical 5G plus AI-cloud optical networking — both end markets growing simultaneously, multiple still telecom-coded. Arista is the data-center fabric standard for AI clusters. Ciena owns the long-haul optical layer between data centers and increasingly into government networks.
Sensing, Space & Autonomy — the physical edge. RTX (RTX) LHX (L3Harris) IRDM (Iridium). RTX and L3Harris are the legacy primes most aggressively retooling around software-defined platforms and commercial silicon. Iridium owns one of the few sovereign LEO satellite networks with a defense-grade authentication moat — a small-cap exposure to the space-comms convergence that is structurally underowned.
Disclosure: Tickers above are illustrative of the thesis, not personalized recommendations. Position sizing, basis, and time horizon are individual decisions. Do your own work.
CONFIRMED VS. DIRECTIONAL. The convergence theme attracts hand-waving. We try to keep our claims sorted into what is on the record and what is our directional read. Use the table when you weigh how aggressively to size any single position.
CONFIRMED (ON THE RECORD)
Anduril–Nokia 5G CST partnership announced; Nokia Federal Solutions arm exists and is hiring against tactical 5G mandates.
Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle hold IL5/IL6 (DoD's higher-security cloud authorizations) and are named on classified workload contract vehicles.
Palantir reports both commercial and government segments; AIP is sold into both with overlapping toolchain.
Nvidia ships GPU and networking into hyperscalers, autonomous platforms, and defense edge customers; same CUDA stack.
Replicator initiative funded; DIU FY26 budget expanded; commercial-first procurement reform language is in the FY26 NDAA markup.
DIRECTIONAL (OUR READ)
Other telecom-defense pairings will follow within 12 months — Ericsson is the most likely next mover, given its existing federal footprint.
Hyperscaler defense revenue will become a separately disclosed line item within 24 months as it crosses materiality thresholds.
Multiple expansion in Palantir is more dependent on commercial AIP traction than on defense backlog. Defense is the floor; commercial is the upside.
Nvidia's defense-adjacent revenue is small as a percentage today but represents the highest-margin and most contractually durable cohort of customers in the platform.
Commercial-first procurement is structurally one-way. Reversal under any administration is unlikely; the budgetary advantage is too large to walk back.
PRESSURE POINTS
Convergence is not friendly to every legacy participant. The risk is concentrated in companies whose moats are bespoke and budget-protected rather than software-driven and architecturally fluent. Pressure here is about timing and margin compression, not business failure — these are still real cash-flow companies, but consensus models are likely to under-discount the gross-margin headwind from commercial-first procurement and platform substitution.
NAME. PRESSURE POINT
GD (General Dynamics). Mission Systems segment increasingly competes with software-defined challengers; legacy radio and tactical networking franchises face commercial-silicon substitution risk over a 3–5 year horizon.
NOC (Northrop Grumman). Strong in classified franchises, but the specific risk is that next-generation programs route compute and connectivity through commercial vendors rather than prime-built proprietary stacks. Revenue retained, margin compressed.
VZ / T (Verizon, AT&T). Domestic carriers were assumed to be the natural beneficiaries of any defense 5G build-out. The Anduril–Nokia template — private 5G as defense-purpose-built without carrier middle layer — argues otherwise. Federal wireless revenue ceiling is lower than consensus assumes.
CSCO (Cisco). Strong incumbent, but Arista has taken meaningful share in AI data-center fabrics and the company's defense networking franchise is exposed to the same commercial-silicon dynamics that pressure the primes. The Splunk acquisition helps; the underlying networking mix shift is the watch item.
TIMING WATCHLIST — NEXT 90 DAYS. A thesis without a clock is a hope. The convergence trade compounds slowly in absolute terms but re-rates discretely — multiples adjust on specific catalysts. Here are the five most likely catalysts in the next 90 days, and what each one tells you.
WHAT TO WATCH (AND WHAT IT MEANS)
1. New JADC2, Maven, or Replicator contract awards. Watch who's named — particularly any commercial-first vendor (cloud, telecom, semiconductor) appearing as a prime or co-prime rather than a sub. Each new commercial-first prime award is a re-rating event for the relevant bucket.
2. Any hyperscaler breaking out a federal or sovereign revenue line item. Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle have crossed materiality on classified workloads. The first to disclose it as a separate line item forces analysts to re-segment the entire cohort. Q2 and Q3 earnings season is the window.
3. NATO or allied procurement around tactical comms and private 5G. The Anduril–Nokia model is exportable. UK MoD, German BAAINBw, and Japanese MOD are all running parallel tactical comms refresh programs. A NATO-coded analog of the 5G CST would re-rate Nokia and Ericsson immediately.
4. Earnings-call vocabulary creep. Track the frequency of phrases like "federal solutions," "sovereign compute," "classified workloads," "tactical edge," and "defense AI" on Q2 calls across the names in our table. Vocabulary precedes guidance. Guidance precedes the multiple.
5. The next telecom–defense or hyperscaler–prime pairing. Each new partnership announcement is an empirical confirmation tap on the convergence thesis. The names most likely to move first: Ericsson with a U.S. defense partner; a major hyperscaler with a Tier 1 prime on a sovereign AI compute deal; a semiconductor company disclosing meaningful defense-edge revenue.
THE HONEST BEAR CASE: WHAT WOULD BREAK THIS THESIS
1. The defense up-cycle proves shorter than expected. A debt-driven fiscal contraction or political reset could compress the FY27 and FY28 defense topline. The convergence trade still works, but the multiple expansion thesis weakens if the defense leg is removed.
2. Commercial-first procurement reverses. A high-profile failure of a commercial-grade system in a critical mission could trigger a return to bespoke procurement. We think this is unlikely given budget mathematics, but it is the cleanest single-event risk.
3. Hyperscaler capex digests rather than compounds. If 2026 turns out to be the peak year for AI capex and 2027 is a digestion year, the cloud leg of the converged stack rerates downward, taking semiconductor and networking exposures with it. This is a cyclical risk, not a structural one — but it can absolutely cost a year of returns.
4. Convergence happens, but the wrong companies capture it. Privately held challengers (Anduril, Shield AI, Skydio, Saronic) capture more of the new dollars than the public-market names we have listed. This is the single best argument for keeping position sizes proportionate and using the public names as exposure to the theme rather than as bets on specific contract wins.
5. Geopolitical reset. A meaningful US–China de-escalation reduces defense and sovereign-compute urgency. The thesis still works on commercial autonomy and AI infrastructure alone, but the urgency premium compresses.
FIVE TAKEAWAYS
The category walls are gone. Defense, telecom, cloud, robotics, and space are converging into one architecture. Wall Street still prices them as separate buckets. That gap is the trade.
The mispricing is in the multiple, not the company. Converged-stack vendors have multiple uncorrelated end markets, real defense exposure, and software-driven switching costs. They deserve to trade above their bucket multiple. Most don't yet.
Buy the operating layer first. The Lattice-equivalents — Palantir, the IL5/IL6 hyperscalers, the agentic AI platforms — capture the highest-margin economics of the converged stack and have the longest-duration switching costs.
The pressure points are bespoke-budget incumbents. Companies whose franchise depends on proprietary radios, custom silicon, or carrier-mediated wireless face a slow margin grind as commercial-first procurement compounds. Not catastrophic. But not the multiple expansion story.
Watch for the next Anduril–Nokia. The clearest forward signal is the next telecom-defense pairing, the next hyperscaler-prime joint product launch, or the next semiconductor company disclosing meaningful defense edge revenue. Each one is a confirmation tap on the thesis. Each one re-rates the bucket.
Stop buying sectors. Buy the stack. The next decade's winners won't fit in your spreadsheet's categories — which is exactly why the market underprices them first.
I’ve been seeing some wild comments lately about Nokia hitting $100 or even $200 and I think some of you seriously need a reality check. I'm long on NOK too, and the recent pump to $12-13 because of the Nvidia news and the Infinera deal is great, but let's be real for a second.
Do you guys even look at the market cap before posting these targets?
There are roughly 6.5 billion shares outstanding. If NOK hits $200, the market cap becomes $1.3 TRILLION.
Think about that. That would make Nokia more valuable than AMD and basically puts it in the same league as Google or Meta. It’s a telecom company, guys. They build hardware, antennas, and subsea cables. They don't have 90% software margins like a SaaS company. Even with the AI hype, they aren't becoming a trillion-dollar giant overnight.
I think $30 is already a massive stretch for the next few years, let alone triple digits.
Nokia has made a shift from a legacy hardware manufacturer to an AI and Defence player. The stock price has began correcting, but still lags behind.
Nokias current PE is sitting at 26 with the price of $13.4. It has taken a move away from its previous telecom equipment valuation, which had comparables such as Ericsson sitting at 17. It’s currently shifting towards an optical infrastructure valuation, which leaves comparables such as ciena (216 PE) and Arista networks (54 PE). Right now Nokia is sitting in the transition phase, where we are left waiting to see where its valuation lands.
If we see the rewrite landing us on the low side of 54, that brings us to the potential price of ~$26.8, as long as development continues and Nokia is taken seriously as an AI infrastructure player. As of now, most people still struggle to see it as more than just a telecoms company, or an old phone company. If it does break away from its previous identity, I do see the rewrite of its AI valuation playing out.
Nokia has made a large shift towards the Defence sector, currently using 5G and AI, and will continue to develop themselves in this space Via 6G and AI-RAN.
They have a dedicated branch (Nokia Federal Solution) that is dedicated to serving the US government.
Their current defence partnerships are the US government, Lockheed Martin, NVDA, and Motorola (UK defence development)
As for what comes after, I don’t think it’s really possible to put a price target on AI-RAN yet. If it is successful at what it aims to do, they will not only operate as an AI foundation, but also as an AI supplier via the 6G network centres if they achieve their goal. We will see a brand new revenue stream similar to cloud monetization. It’s impossible to put a price target on it, because we have no comparable, and it will be the first of its kind.
If everything goes to plan, we could potentially see the $26.8 rewrite in the somewhat near future, with the potential of going much higher depending on how AI-RAN and partnerships play out.
35,403 shares
288x $10JAN28
123x $15JAN28
I will also be adding more throughout the revaluation.
NFA.
Godspeed.
Just looking through the peephole I have stumbled upon Nokia’s stock. Is now a good time to jump in? Seeing AI integrations in the works. Any partnership news? Keen to hear what people think on this stock
I have 14 and 15 call options expiring in a few month. I have the capital to let the contracts expire. I believe in NOK long term and think it will break $50 by 2028.
Should I let my contracts expire and hold the 200 shares @ the strike price or take my profit once im comfortable and buy kore options for 2028 or 2027
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nokia-appoints-emma-falck-president-060000606.html
Nokia appoints Emma Falck as President of Mobile Infrastructure and member of the Group Leadership Team
Espoo, Finland – Nokia today announced the appointment of Emma Falck as President of Mobile Infrastructure and member of the Nokia Group Leadership Team, effective 1 September 2026.
Falck brings extensive experience leading transformation and improving performance in complex global technology businesses. She joins Nokia from Siemens, where she serves as Executive Vice President, Products, Smart Infrastructure Buildings, leading a global organization across product management and development, and supply chain. At Siemens, she held senior strategy roles and led technology organizations building automation, software and connected devices. Earlier in her career, she was a Partner and Managing Director at Boston Consulting Group and held senior leadership roles at KONE. She holds a PhD in Computational Physics from Aalto University.
“I’m delighted to welcome Emma to Team Nokia. As AI moves toward physical AI, networks need to become AI-native by design for both 5G Advanced and 6G.
Our focus in Mobile Infrastructure is clear: To help our customers succeed by building a software-led infrastructure business that leverages open interfaces, standards, and a rich partner ecosystem to accelerate innovation.
Emma brings broad transformation experience, operational leadership and a fresh perspective from global businesses that use technology to enable automation. She is the right leader to take MI into this new chapter,” said Justin Hotard, President and CEO of Nokia.
“I’m excited to join Nokia at a pivotal moment for our customers and the industry. As networks evolve to support new AI-driven demands, customers need partners who can deliver with speed and predictability, and turn technology roadmaps into real-world performance.
Mobile Infrastructure’s breadth across core software, radio networks and technology standards is a solid foundation. I look forward to working with the team to strengthen our execution, embed AI into our development and delivery processes, and bring the next wave of innovation to our customers,” said Falck.
Falck will be based in Espoo, Finland and report to Nokia’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Justin Hotard.
NOK to the sky 🚀 in coming months and save this post NOK is not an AI hype stock but real tech company that is solving the next AI infrastructure problem.
Emma Falck, appointed to lead MI, doesn't need to be a RAN guru; she doesn't directly lead Radio Networks, but rather MI, which comprises three business units: Radio Networks (formerly Mobile Networks), Core Software (formerly CNS), and Technology Standards (formerly Nokia Technologies). Each business unit has its own operational leadership that knows their respective fields inside out, which Falck will steer in the direction of the desired transformation.
The appointment is likely a signal that Hotard does not want MI to be just a traditional RAN hardware vendor in the future, but rather a software- and AI-driven infrastructure entity where standards, software, and networks are more tightly integrated than before. A background from Siemens and KONE within intelligent infrastructure and automation systems may be even more relevant for this than a classic telecom background. Going forward, the share of software would be emphasized over traditional hardware sales (which are under threat of commoditization).
The risk, of course, is that the telecom operator business is very conservative and the change may prove too disruptive for operators' tastes. On the other hand, if the old Mobile Networks model wasn't generating proper value anyway (a while back, Light Reading concluded that Radio Networks and Core Software together might have been loss-making in Q1), a more radical renewal may be a rational alternative if the cycle of low profitability is to be seriously broken.
They trying to shake me out i cant go for it!!! HODL
Some investors are hesitating because Q1 earnings weren't exceptional on profit or revenue. That's the wrong lens.
Current profitability is partly suppressed by deliberate investments in capacity and new products. The real signal in Q1 was AI & Cloud orders of €1B or 67% above the 2025 quarterly average, against only €350M in AI & Cloud revenue. A 3x order-to-revenue ratio with 12-18 month optical lead times means Q1 orders are primarily 2027 revenue. The backlog is being built now.
And Q1 orders don't yet include meaningful IP Networks contribution. CEO Hotard explicitly said IP Networks design wins would begin converting to orders from Q2 onward. Optical momentum plus accelerating IP contribution through H2 could make 2026 a watershed year for Nokia's AI and data center order book.
Then consider what happens when Nokia's San José fab (with up to 20x the capacity of the current facility) enters commercial production toward year-end. Customers are already booking that future capacity. The order trajectory hasn't yet reflected the full supply availability that's coming.
The market is still pricing Nokia partly on current earnings. The leading indicator is the AI & Cloud order pipeline. Those are two very different pictures of the same company.
358,523,343.42 shares now
EDIT: in March they crossed the 5% threshold, (5,04%) now its 6.2%
March news
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/notification-under-chapter-9-section-143000360.html
EDIT2 for clarity
March they went just over 5% threshold (5,04%) which needs to be publicly released instantly, now recent is 6,2% so increase and comes only after the scheduled 13G reports, if they go over 10% that needs to be instantly released too, in between we only find the increases with scheduled SEC reporting 13G, 13F etc
Nokia booked €1B in AI & Cloud orders in Q1 alone, against a FY2025 total of €2.4B, already 67% above last year's quarterly average. While order lumpiness might partly explain the strong orders in Q1, here's why full-year 2026 orders could exceed €4B and what that eventually means for Nokia's revenue mix.
Three drivers are converging.
The revenue math when deliveries catch up to orders:
With 12-18 month optical lead times, 2026 orders are primarily 2027+ revenue. The question is what Nokia looks like when annual deliveries normalize to match a €4B order rate.
Let's assume that FY2025 AI & Cloud revenue was €1B which is a rough estimate, not a disclosed figure. Adding €3B incremental AI & Cloud revenue to Nokia's ~€20B group revenue gives approximately €23B total, making AI & Cloud roughly 17% of group revenue. The more striking number is at the NI segment level. Nokia's NI revenue was approximately €8B in 2025. At €4B AI & Cloud revenue, for simplicity assuming it all flows through NI, that's 4/(8+3) = 36% of NI segment revenue. This is thus a forward projection of what Nokia's revenue mix would look like when deliveries normalize to the current order rate, not a description of today's revenue.
At that point Nokia is no longer a telecom equipment vendor with an optical division attached. The AI and cloud business is the core of NI. This scenario would still represent the early stages of Nokia's transformation as an AI supercycle beneficiary. And the potential €4B in AI & Cloud orders may itself be a transitional figure. Nokia's new optical DSP portfolio enters the market in H2 2027, the San José fab reaches full production in 2027, and IP Networks is only beginning its order ramp in 2026. Each driver probably accelerates further in 2027-2028. If the order trajectory continues, €4B in 2026 could look like the early chapter of a much larger story.
