r/NoMemesJustMoney

Realty Income (O) delivered a solid Q1 2026, with AFFO per share up 6.6% to $1.13 and full-year guidance raised to $4.41–$4.44. Management is leaning hard into private capital, with new partnerships across Apollo, GIC, and a perpetual-life institutional vehicle now totaling over $2.5 billion in managed assets.

A $190 million Virginia data center deal hints at further pipeline expansion. The pivot toward high-margin fee revenue is exciting, but neglecting the core real estate portfolio is a key risk to watch.

I can attach a PDF with my full write-up and thoughts if anyone wants.

The M&A Hunter Scoreboard

Stack subscribers know the model. We hunt small and mid cap names where consolidation pressure is real, where the science holds up, where the cap structure works for a buyer, and where the tape has not yet caught on. Some names work standalone. Some get taken out. The takeouts are the fun ones.

M&A Hunter launched in November 2025. Six months in, nine names from the coverage have hit a takeout offer. Eight in biotech. One in regional banking, where local and regional bank consolidation is the parallel thesis we have been running. That is the scoreboard. Quick recap of where we have landed.

1. RAPT to GSK

Announced January 20 2026, closed March 3. $58.00 per share in cash. $2.2 billion equity, $1.9 billion net of cash. 65% premium to the prior close. RAPT had ozureprubart, an anti-IgE mAb for food allergy prophylaxis in Phase 2b. GSK's first major deal under new CEO Luke Miels.

2. DAWN, Day One Biopharmaceuticals to Servier

Announced March 6 2026, closed April 23. $21.50 per share cash. $2.5 billion equity. 68% premium to prior close, 86% to 30 day VWAP. The asset was Ojemda, the only FDA-approved monotherapy for pediatric low grade glioma with BRAF alterations, plus the Mersana ADC pipeline. Tender 85.34%. Was Miami Tier 1.

3. TERN, Terns Pharmaceuticals to Merck

Announced March 25 2026. $53.00 per share cash. $6.7 billion equity, $5.7 billion net. 31% premium to 60-day VWAP, 42% to 90-day VWAP. Tender launched April 7, closes Q2 2026. The asset was TERN-701, an oral allosteric BCR::ABL1 TKI in Phase 1/2 for CML. Merck's third multibillion-dollar deal in the past year as the Keytruda patent cliff approaches. Was Miami Tier 1.

4. CNTA, Centessa Pharmaceuticals to Eli Lilly

Announced March 31 2026. $38.00 per share upfront cash plus a CVR worth up to $9.00 tied to clinical and regulatory milestones. $7.8 billion total deal value, $6.3 billion upfront. The asset was cleminorexton (ORX750) plus ORX142, OX2R agonists for narcolepsy type 1, narcolepsy type 2, and idiopathic hypersomnia. Largest deal in the cohort. Was Miami Tier 3.

5. APLS, Apellis Pharmaceuticals to Biogen

Announced March 31 2026, tender launched April 14. $41.00 per share cash plus a CVR worth up to $4.00 (two payments of $2 each tied to SYFOVRE global net sales milestones). $5.6 billion upfront. 140% premium to the March 30 close of $17.09. Largest premium in the cohort, by a mile. Biogen wanted EMPAVELI for the complement franchise (C3G, IC-MPGN, PNH) and SYFOVRE for the geographic atrophy footprint. $689 million in 2025 net product revenue, with the company having just achieved its first year of profitability.

6. SLNO, Soleno Therapeutics to Neurocrine Biosciences

Announced April 6 2026. $53.00 per share cash. $2.9 billion equity. 34% premium. The asset was VYKAT XR, the first and only FDA approved therapy for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome. $190.4 million in 2025 sales despite less than nine months on market, with 859 active patients, 630 prescribers, and roughly 12.5% of the US addressable market penetrated already. Tender launched April 20.

7. OGN, Organon to Sun Pharma

Announced April 26 2026. $14.00 per share cash. $6.8 billion equity, $11.75 billion EV. 103% premium to the unaffected April 9 close. Largest Indian pharma deal ever. Biosimilars and women's health franchise. Closes early 2027.

8. KALV, KalVista Pharmaceuticals to Chiesi Group

Announced April 29 2026, today. $27.00 per share cash tender. $1.9 billion equity. 40% premium. The asset was EKTERLY (sebetralstat), the first oral on demand HAE therapy. Chiesi's largest acquisition ever. Closes Q3.

9. LNKB, LINKBANCORP to Burke & Herbert (BHRB)

Announced December 18 2025. All stock deal. $9.38 per share based on the BHRB closing price the day before, exchange ratio of 0.1350 BHRB shares per LNKB share. $354 million equity. Shareholder vote approved March 25, regulatory approvals received April 13, expected to close May 1 2026. Creates an $11.0 billion asset bank with $9.1 billion in deposits, 100 plus branches across Delaware, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. This is the local and regional bank consolidation thesis playing out exactly as scripted. Smaller community bank with valuable deposit franchise gets folded into a stronger, expanding regional. We expect more of these.

The Read

Nine names. Nine different buyers. $36.65 billion in aggregate equity. No concentration. GSK, Servier, Merck, Lilly, Biogen, Neurocrine, Sun Pharma, Chiesi, Burke & Herbert. American big pharma, French foundation pharma, Italian family-owned, Indian generics specialist, Mid-Atlantic community banker. Different motivations, same conclusion. They needed what was on our list.

April 2026 was the month. Six of the nine moved on the tape in the last 30 days. DAWN closed. TERN HSR cleared. SLNO announced and tendered. OGN announced. KALV announced. LNKB regulatory approvals received with closing scheduled May 1. There is a real wave underway in rare disease, complement biology, neuroscience, specialty pharma, and regional banking, and the pattern is going to continue through the back half of 2026.

A few things worth flagging.

Premium dispersion is huge. SLNO got 34%, KALV got 40%, RAPT got 65%, DAWN got 68%, OGN got 103%, APLS got 140%. The spread tells you something. When a buyer is desperate (Biogen needed revenue diversification), you see triple-digit premiums. When the buyer has multiple options (Neurocrine on SLNO), you see 30s. The takeaway for hunting is that buyer urgency matters at least as much as asset quality. Asset quality gets you on the list. Buyer urgency moves the price.

Lilly has been busy. CNTA in the coverage, Kelonia in the broader vertical, plus Stemcell Therapeutics. The neuroscience and cell therapy build is live. There are more LLY deals coming.

Biogen at 140% is the loudest signal in the cohort. A buyer paying that kind of premium is not optimizing return. They are buying time. That is what revenue desperation looks like, and it tells you which other names with commercial assets and challenged buyers might come next.

Regional banks are quietly working. LNKB is the first hit on the banking thesis but the setup is identical to what we have flagged before. Sub $5 billion in assets, valuable deposit franchise, larger acquirer with capital available, regulatory environment supportive of consolidation. This was not the loudest deal of the year, but it is the cleanest validation of the framework.

What This Means For The List

Six months. Nine hits. The names still on Miami Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 that have not yet been touched are the next set worth watching closely. The buyer field is deep. The cell therapy vertical is still hot. The complement and rare disease verticals just printed money for shareholders. The regional banking trade is just getting started. We keep doing the work, and we let the tape come to us.

If you have been here from launch, you saw most of these called early. If you are new, this is what the model looks like when it works.

More to come. The tape is not done.
Updated Scoreboard, Bio Hits 2026

1. RAPT to GSK, $2.2B
2. DAWN to Servier, $2.5B
3. TERN to Merck, $6.7B
4. CNTA to Lilly, $7.8B
5. APLS to Biogen, $5.6B upfront
6. SLNO to Neurocrine, $2.9B
7. OGN to Sun Pharma, $6.8B
8. KALV to Chiesi, $1.9B
9. ESPR to ARCHIMED, $1.1B

Plus LNKB to BHRB ($354M) on the banking side, closing today May 1.

Word is Marty Makary is getting the ax. Politico's Rachel Bade dropped the scoop May 6, two well-placed sources expressed confidence Makary is on borrowed time. Bloomberg ran the "paranoia, turmoil and backlash" deep dive a day earlier.

The political driver is flavored vapes. Trump wants them approved, Makary blocked the agenda, White House insiders now call him a thorn.

The biotech driver is messier. Sanofi just yanked Tzield from the Commissioner's National Priority Review program after a high-level disagreement. That is a public humiliation of Makary's flagship program. Replimune's RP1 melanoma rejection lit up the industry over single-arm trial pushback.

Vinay Prasad already exited CBER end of April. Atara's Ebvallo got a positive Type A meeting one week later, FDA agreed a single-arm study with appropriate historical control could support approval. The reversals are already starting.

What it means for the M&A Hunter universe

Randomized trial designs get a relative bid. Single-arm submissions face structural headwinds. Companies that built proper Phase 3 randomized programs are insulated. The OnPrime/GOG-3076 type structure becomes the gold standard.

Cell therapy and gene therapy get a tailwind. The Atara reversal is the template. Post-Prasad, the agency is already walking back some of the most aggressive denials. If Makary follows him out, more reversals likely.

Q3-Q4 PDUFA dates carry transition risk. Leadership change in the middle of a review window can cut either way. Industry-friendlier commissioner, neutral to positive. More restrictive RFK Jr. pick, short-term overhang. PDUFA dates in August through November are the ones to watch.

The bigger pattern

Makary came in promising speed. Industry got blindsided by setbacks. Internal staff describe culture clashes. The agency that approves your drug needs to be predictable. Right now it is anything but.

Watching this closely.

DO NOT CHASE THE NEWS Trim crazy pops

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