r/MineStockers

The thesis in short:

North America has a structural salt shortage. The U.S. imported 67.5 million tons between 2020–2023 from Egypt, Chile, and Mexico. Cargill's Avery Island mine closed in 2021, removing 2.5M tons of supply. Ontario municipalities reported wholesale road salt jumping from ~$65/ton to ~$190/ton in early 2026.

The project:

• Great Atlantic Salt Project, Western Newfoundland 🇨🇦
• 4M tons/year production capacity
• 95.9% NaCl grade — one of the highest purity deposits in North America
• 180m depth via decline (vs. 600m shaft at Goderich) — massive cost advantage
• 2km from Turf Point deepwater port — 3 days to Boston vs. 14+ from Egypt
• Proven/probable reserves support 24+ year mine life

The economics (2025 Updated Feasibility Study):

• After-tax NPV: $920M CAD
• IRR: 21.3%
• Payback: 4.2 years
• Avg annual post-tax FCF: $188M

The valuation gap: Current enterprise value is ~$105M CAD. That's 0.1x NAV. Construction-phase mining projects historically trade 0.4–0.6x. Production = 1x+.

Where things stand: Environmental assessment complete. Benefits agreement signed with province. Early works physically commenced February 2026. Endeavor Financial engaged for project finance. First production targeted 2030.

Not financial advice. Do your own DD. But this was one of the more interesting junior mining setups we've seen in a while. Happy to discuss.

Why we think Seabridge Gold ($SEA) is one of the most asymmetric setups in resource investing right now.

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

Here's what caught our attention.

**The Asset:**

KSM (Kerr-Sulphurets-Mitchell) in Northern BC —

96M oz gold measured & indicated (largest undeveloped

gold resource on Earth), plus 10M tons copper

(2nd largest globally). Five open-pittable deposits.

100+ year resource base.

**The Economics (at spot ~$4,400 gold / $5.75 copper):**

- After-tax NPV: ~$33 billion

- IRR: ~35%

- Payback: under 2 years

- Annual production (first 7 years avg): 1.4M oz gold

**The De-Risking:**

- BC Environmental Certificate: issued 2014

- Federal approval: 2014

- "Substantially started" designation: July 2024

(locks in permits forever — they don't expire)

- Over $500M in early works already spent

- Roads, bridges, camps, power — physically built

**The Valuation Gap:**

Comparable dev-stage peers: ~50% of NPV

Seabridge current market cap: ~10% of NPV

That's either a massive red flag or a massive

opportunity depending on your view of the JV risk.

**The Catalyst:**

JV process started with 7 major mining companies.

Down to 3 finalists. Direct negotiations with

preferred partner now underway. No fatal flaws found.

Management has been saying a partner is coming

for years — fair criticism — but the substantially

started designation + current metal prices +

narrowed field feels genuinely different this time.

Are we missing something obvious here? 👇

$SEA #SeabridgeGold #GoldInvesting