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I don't know, I had really high hopes for them. But, something is OFF.

Hello Guys,

I prepared another piece of content, regarding Dota 2 Pro Scene in general.
I would like to know your stand here, and what can be improved in the Dota2 Esports Scene.

DISCLAIMER: The blog post is REALLY long, so read it just when you have nothing else to do.

Long post, sorry.

Dreamleague 29 is coming up and it is the last chance for teams to earn EPT points to qualify for the Esports World Cup in July. I've been checking the EPT leaderboard constantly (even when I know nothing has changed) to think about what the odds are that my favorite team (GamerLegion) gets an invite. Eventually I just decided to make a crude but (hopefully) effective simulation of the possible outcomes to see what the chances were for every team.

Disclaimer: I do have a background in coding but I did use Gemini to help me make the code (more like I helped Gemini lol). No AI was used in the writing of this post.

Here's how it works. The program simulates the possible results of Dreamleague and updates the EPT leaderboard with the points. It does this for 1,000,000 cycles then spits out the teams in order of the % of times they end up in the top 13 (Spirit gets an automatic invite since they won EWC last year so top 13 qualify as opposed to top 12). This is ok but it assumes each team has an equal chance of placing well which is not the case. It's extremely unlikely Rekonix will win the whole thing or that Aurora will get last. This is where the "kinda" in the title comes in. I ran the simulations again (only 100,000 this time due to time constraints) but this time I put a range on where teams could place in the simulation in an attempt to mirror the "likely" results of the tournament. Ideally, I would have polled the subreddit to get these numbers but I didn't really want to flood the subreddit with 32 polls on the best/worst place these teams can get. So personally biased estimates it is. Soft definition for how I did these is I thought what would be a "good"/"bad" result for each team and then gave them 1 or 2 more places up/down than that. But please let me know if you strongly disagree with any of these places.

Here are the 19 teams (Yandex, Mouz and OG are not at Dreamleague but still have a good chance of making it to EWC), their chance of making it to EWC for both the completely random and "likely" outcomes, and the numbers I used for those likely outcomes. I DID account for group stage points but I did NOT account for the outcome where VG does well and climbs into the top 13 which would make top 14 qualify since they already qualified via the Chinese qualifier as I just realized that potential outcome as I was writing this.

Tundra (qualified)

• Likely best: 1st
• Likely worst: 9th-12th

Xtreme Gaming (qualified)

• Likely best: 1st
• Likely worst: 9th-12th

Aurora (qualified)

• Likely best: 1st
• Likely worst: 9th-12th

Parivision (qualified)

• Likely best: 1st
• Likely worst: 9th-12th

Yandex (qualified)

Spirit (qualified)

• Likely best: 1st
• Likely worst: 9th-12th

Falcons

• Likely best: 1st
• Likely worst: 9th-12th
• "Likely" qualification chance: 100%
• Random qualification chance: 100%

Liquid

• Likely best: 1st
• Likely worst: 9th-12th
• "Likely" qualification chance: 100%
• Random qualification chance: 100%

According to the EPT leaderboards, Falcons and Liquid have technically not qualified. But every simulation I ran says they make it. The trick is (in theory) they can be caught by every team below them individually but only 3-4 can do it with the amount of points given out this tournament. So GL or VP or Playtime or VG or Heroic or Navi can catch them but you can't replace 'or' with 'and' in that statement.

Mouz

• "Likely" qualification chance: 99.99%
• Random qualification chance: 91.65%

BetBoom

• Likely best: 1st
• Likely worst: 9th-12th
• "Likely" qualification chance: 97.21%
• Random qualification chance: 59.20%

OG

• "Likely" qualification chance: 91.94%
• Random qualification chance: 35.03%

VP

• Likely best: 7th/8th
• Likely worst: 15th/16th
• "Likely" qualification chance: 54.38%
• Random qualification chance: 54.77%

Navi

• Likely best: 4th
• Likely worst: 13th/14th
• "Likely" qualification chance: 37.39%
• Random qualification chance: 39.58%

-------13th place cut off here-------

GamerLegion

• Likely best: 4th
• Likely worst: 15th/16th
• "Likely" qualification chance: 36.13%
• Random qualification chance: 42.79%

Heroic

• Likely best: 4th
• Likely worst: 15th/16th
• "Likely" qualification chance: 21.24%
• Random qualification chance: 35.18%

VG (qualified via Chinese qualifier)

• Likely best: 4th
• Likely worst: 15th/16th

Nigma Galaxy

• Likely best: 4th
• Likely worst: 15th/16th
• "Likely" qualification chance: 20.24%
• Random qualification chance: 36.52%

Playtime

• Likely best: 4th
• Likely worst: 15th/16th
• "Likely" qualification chance: 19.70%
• Random qualification chance: 36.24%

Rekonix

• Likely best: 7th/8th
• Likely worst: 15th/16th
• "Likely" qualification chance: 0.70%
• Random qualification chance: 33.87%

If anyone wants to see the code either due to curiosity or to tell me what I did wrong, please feel free to DM me.

So looks like the "most likely" teams to qualify for EWC via points are Tundra, XG, Aurora, Parivision, Yandex, Spirit, Falcons, Liquid, Mouz, BetBoom, OG, VP and Navi with GamerLegion just missing out. Obviously, we will have to wait and see what happens in the tournament but I feel like this is a pretty good summary of where the teams stand.

Lastly, some interesting scenarios that could occur depending on the result of this tournament. The EWC also has qualifiers for each region. In NA, GL has the qualifier to fall back on but what if they make it via points? Who gets in from NA then? SA has 1 slot so if neither Heroic or Playtime makes it from points, 1 of them is getting left out. Or they could both make it and then SA is in a similar spot to NA. SEA has 2 slots so if Rekonix put together a crazy run at Dreamleague, we could see 4 SEA teams (OG, Rekonix, plus 2) at EWC. WEU gets 3 slots but a LOT of their teams are going to make it via points. It's likely that at least 1 of Nigma, Navi or VP won't make it from points so 1 or 2 of the spots will be up for grabs. Some teams we could see at EWC from WEU are Zero Tenacity, Nemisis, or Inner Circle (idk who is necessarily gonna be in WEU vs EEU). EEU gets 2 slots and all their major teams should make it via points. We will likely see 2 of L1ga, 1win, Nemiga and Yellow Submarine from that region.

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got 0-2'd by Team Resilience. Honestly, I'm thinking 322 because XG had nothing to win here and the 2nd map offlane Necro sus.

rekonix looks solid yesterday vs nigma. but they choked a couple of team fight.

l1ga on the other hand seems way more cohesive but I did notice they often "mentally GG" if the first 20 minutes they are behind.