Expiry Friday wrap, 13 primary signals on the line plus a what-if table on three exit rules
Today was the biggest single-day expiry day the book has run through yet. 13 primary signals all carried April 24 expiries. Here is what actually printed, and then what it would have looked like under two different exit rules.
What actually happened (old peak-trail stop rule):
Winners (5): AMD 265C +3196%, MRVL 135C +731%, BE 185C +427%, ORCL 160C +271%, MU 460C +168%.
Losers (8): SNDK 1050C -92%, GLD 450C -94%, NVDA 200C -60%, GOOGL 340C -48%, AMD 285C -40%, NBIS 165C -37%, CRWV 120C -35%, AAPL 270C -1%.
Watchlist (3): MRK 113P +6%, MSTR 175C -54%, HOOD 88C -54%.
The same cohort under three different exit rules:
TICKER OLD -50% NO STOPS
AMD 265C +3196 +3196 +3196
MRVL 135C +731 +731 +731
BE 185C +427 +427 +427
MU 460C +168 +168 +168
ORCL 160C +271 +200 +200
AMD 285C -40 +1190 +1190
NVDA 200C -60 -50 +106
GOOGL 340C -48 -50 +3
AAPL 270C -1 -50 -49
CRWV 120C -35 -50 -65
NBIS 165C -37 -50 -84
SNDK 1050C -92 -50 -99
GLD 450C -94 -50 -100
MRK 113P +6 +41 +41
MSTR 175C -54 -50 -54
HOOD 88C -54 -50 -94
AGG TOTAL +4284 +5503 +5517
AVG / POS +268 +344 +345
WIN RATE 6/16 7/16 9/16
The AMD 285C line is the killer. Under the peak-trail rule it stopped at -40% on Monday before the cohort rip resumed. Under a -50% hard stop rule the position never drew down that far, so it would have held and printed +1190% at expiry. One position, one rule change, +1230 percentage points.
NVDA 200C is the second story. It drew down past -50% during the week, so it would have stopped under the new rule. But it recovered to +106% at today's close. No-stops picks that up.